The 2013 NBA Draft will be held on Thursday June 27, starting at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. Many questions about who will go #1, what team will trade what pick, and other questions remain to be answered. What I will do is list what my prediction for today's draft without factoring in any of those possibilities, and strictly go by what I think will happen based on who is presently designated to pick at each slot. Also, this mock draft only covers the 1st Round:
#1. Cleveland Cavaliers---Maryland C Alex Len: Alex Len has emerged very late as the projected #1 pick across many people's draft boards. The reason I have the Cavaliers going with Alex Len is because they could use a good center right now, and reports say that they are scared to take Kentucky C Nerlens Noel due to his recently torn ACL and his smaller body frame. They already have a solid young back court mate in Dion Waiters to accompany their star point guard Kyrie Irving, and they drafted power forward Tristan Thompson the same year as Irving, and he still looks promising. Len would be a great fit with that young core because he wouldn't take anybody's minutes away and he could develop along side them. Plus, he has a great body, standing at 7'1 and weighing 255 lbs, which means he's the size of a traditional NBA center. Many people feel like he has the most upside of anybody in this draft and could become a franchise player at the center position. Alex Len just might be the missing ingredient to a playoff caliber Cavaliers team. The only real concern the Cavaliers should have is he is coming off of ankle surgery due to a stress fracture in his ankle, but that sure beats an ACL as far as I'm concerned.
#2. Orlando Magic---Kentucky C Nerlens Noel: A recent report from Chad Ford of ESPN said that the Orlando Magic will almost certainly take Nerlens Noel provided the Cavaliers don't take him. I'm going to stick with Chad Ford's report and say the Magic select him. The reason why this makes sense is the Magic need a guy to fill the void left by Dwight Howard, and they could also use a good rim protector to clog the middle. That's exactly what Nerlens Noel is going to be, and if it weren't for the ACL, many would have him as the #1 overall pick. The Magic might get lucky and get the best player in the draft by selecting Noel, and in the process get themselves a guy who will control the paint on the defensive end. The only concern with Noel is despite being 6'11 with a 7'4 wingspan, he only weighs 216 lbs. He needs to bulk up and show he can hold his own down low in the paint in the NBA. Plus, he is offensively raw and needs to become a more polished offensive player. But it sounds like the Magic like his upside enough to take the risk on him and his recently torn ACL. I'd be very surprised if Noel was available after the #2 pick.
#3. Washington Wizards---Georgetown SF Otto Porter, Jr.: Many people think Otto Porter, Jr. is the best player in this year's draft because of his athleticism, size and length, and his overall potential to become a star swingman in the NBA. Unlike Len and Noel, Porter has no injury concerns of any kind and seems to be more ready for the NBA right now. The reason he makes sense for the Wizards is because they could really use a small forward. Trevor Ariza isn't the most ideal starter for a playoff caliber team at this position, Martell Webster obviously isn't getting it done, and Jan Vesely isn't exactly looking like a sure thing at that position either. With John Wall and Bradley Beal in the back court, and Nene at the center position, a guy that can play the small forward position is exactly what this team needs, and there is none better option in this draft than Otto Porter, Jr. to fill that need for the Wizards.
#4. Charlotte Bobcats---Kansas SG Ben McLemore: If Ben McLemore is available, not even Michael Jordan would be able to mess this up. McLemore clearly would be a perfect fit for the Bobcats because their point guard Kemba Walker clearly needs help in the backcourt and Ben McLemore is the best possible backcourt mate for Kemba Walker in this draft. He can shoot and score (15.9 ppg) , he's athletic, good at rebounding (5.7 reb) and seems to have a flair for stardom. Throw him in with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at the small forward position, and all of a sudden a Walker, McLemore, Kidd-Gilchrist trio just might spell a mini-big three in Charlotte. The Bobcats got a long ways to go, but adding Ben McLemore would be a step in the right direction for sure as they look to put together a team that is capable of making the playoffs.
#5.Phoenix Suns---Michigan PG Trey Burke: It's hard to figure where the Suns will go in the draft as they are a team that is an utter and complete disaster right now. They could use a whole number of different types of players, but I see them going with Michigan point guard Trey Burke. The Steve Nash era is over, and while Goran Dragic is a solid young point guard, he clearly isn't a guy that can get it done as your starting franchise point guard. Look for the Suns to draft Burke and possibly move Dragic, or use Dragic as a tutor to Burke. The other two point guards on their roster, Shannon Brown and Kendall Marshall don't appear to be remotely capable of being the team's starting point guard of the future. This league is a point guard driven league, which is why I think the Suns will take Burke. He'd be a good foundational piece for them to build around for the future as they continue to gut their team of useless players such as Kendall Marshall.
#6. New Orleans Pelicans---Indiana SG/SF Victor Oladipo: The Pelicans are reportedly shopping their current shooting guard Eric Gordon, and perhaps it is because they want Victor Oladipo to replace him. Oladipo, unlike Gordon, is a good defender and a high energy type player. The Pelicans are looking for a fresh new start as they abandon their Hornets nickname, and getting Oladipo to replace Gordon wouldn't be a bad way to get that fresh start underway. They don't seem to be confident in Gordon's commitment level to the franchise nor his ability to stay healthy. Oladipo brings things to the table that Gordon does not, and might bring in a change of culture for the better due to his defense and motor. If he's available, fully expect the Pelicans to take him.
#7. Sacramento Kings---Russian SF Sergey Karasev: My mock draft is likely the only mock draft you will read that has the Kings taking Sergey Karasev this high, but I have good reason to think they will. They are crowded in the backcourt with Jimmer Fredette, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Thornton, and Tyreke Evans. They clearly don't need another point guard or shooting guard, and they also don't need a big guy as they have Jason Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson up front. What they need is a versatile swingman that can play off their overloaded back court and their beefy front court. That is exactly what Sergey Karasev can do for them at the small forward position. Behind Otto Porter, Jr. he is the second best small forward in this draft and is also considered by many to be one of the most NBA ready players in this draft. He has 3 years of pro experience in Russia and is only 19 years of age, which means that while being young, he's used to being a professional player, and he has no issues with immaturity. As for his game, he attacks the rim well, makes shots, and is said to be a very smart and intelligent player. Plus, he has good NBA size standing at 6'7 and weighing 205 lbs. His style of play perfectly fits what the Kings need, and his status as an international player is perfect for the Kings, who are in a smaller market. International players tend to have higher odds of staying in places like Sacramento, which is another good reason for the Kings to draft him. Remember the days of Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic? Those were the days when the Kings had more international representation than the United Nations, and as a result had their best seasons in franchise history.
#8. Detroit Pistons---Georgia SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: I think Caldwell-Pope is a very possible choice given that they could use an upgrade at the shooting guard position, especially one who can hit some threes, since they are ranked in the bottom half of the league in 3-point percentage. One of Caldwell-Pope's strengths is his perimeter scoring, and that is something that they desperately need. Plus, there isn't much else at this point that the Pistons would be better off taking. They have enough point guards to worry about with Brandon Knight and Jose Calderon, and plenty of Bigs with Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and Viacheslav Kravtsov, which is why a shooting guard could make sense here. In addition, Caldwell-Pope stands at 6'6 and weighs 205 lbs, and is rather athletic. Perhaps if he gets bigger and learns to attack the basket better, he could become a small forward, which is their more pressing need. Caldwell-Pope could end up filling their needs for both a shooting guard and a small forward, which actually makes him a pretty attractive option for them.
#9. Minnesota Timberwolves---Indiana C Cody Zeller: The Timberwolves recently turned down a trade from the Cavaliers for their power forward Kevin Love that would have given them Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson, and the #1 overall pick. The Timberwolves made the right decision to turn down that trade given that Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love haven't had enough time to see what they can do together when both healthy. However, should Love decide to bail on the team in free agency, having a promising young big guy like Cody Zeller could make that departure not so bad for the team. Plus, keep in mind that Nikola Pekovic may not be back with the team next season, so Zeller could be used as insurance for Pekovic, too. Zeller is also a nice fit for the Timberwolves due to his offensive versatility. He moves really well for his size and could prove to be a nice pick and roll mate for Ricky Rubio. Standing at 6'11 and weighing 240 lbs, Zeller is already decently sized, and doesn't need to add that much more weight. In addition, he was a good citizen and student while at Indiana. He's the kind of guy you want in your organization off the court in addition to on the court.
#10. Portland Trail Blazers---UNLV PF Anthony Bennett: Many draft boards have Anthony Bennett going way higher than this, but if every team drafts according to what they need, there is a good chance Bennett slips down to #10 since Detroit, Sacramento, and New Orleans all don't really need big guys right now. The Trail Blazers are rumored to be interested in big men Tiago Splitter of the Spurs and Nikola Pekovic of the Timberwolves. If Anthony Bennett falls to them, expect them to snatch him right up and see if they can get him to play in the front court right along side LaMarcus Aldridge. Bennett is a really good rebounder, which is definitely an area the Trail Blazers could use some help with since they were 24th in rebounding last season.
#11. Philadelphia 76ers---Pittsburgh C Steven Adams: The Andrew Bynum experiment didn't work out and the 76ers know it. They definitely could use another big guy with Bynum gone, and they also aren't a team that is expected to contend for a while. Adams has the tools and the size to become a real dominant force in the NBA on the glass and on the defensive end, standing at 6'11 and weighing 255 lbs. The problem with him, is he really not very good offensively at the moment, and is one of these long-term project kind of players. But given that the 76ers are young and they are looking to rebuild with Bynum and Andre Iguodala gone, drafting a promising young center like Adams is actually not that bad of an idea for them.
#12.Oklahoma City Thunder---Lehigh PG/SG C.J. McCollum: The Thunder didn't exactly like Kevin Martin all that much and Russell Westbrook just might be better off with another guy in the backcourt. Especially a guy who could potentially run the point and let him play his more natural shooting guard position. The Thunder clearly miss the presence of a dynamic scorer and playmaker in the backcourt with James Harden now on the Rockets, which is why C.J. McCollum might be just what the doctor ordered for the Thunder. He averaged 23.9 points per game last season, so he definitely knows how to put the ball in the hole, and maybe like Harden could be more of that playmaker type as well, which more readily allows Russell Westbrook to do his thing, which is to attack the rim with reckless abandon. Also, I think McCollum would enjoy playing in their up and down tempo style of basketball.
#13. Dallas Mavericks---Brazil PF/C Lucas Nogueira: The Mavericks really don't want to have this draft pick, but if they have to use it, they will likely use it on somebody that they won't need to see for a couple of years. Well, that would be Lucas Nogueira, a 6'11 215 lb guy with a lot of work to do before he actually comes over to play in the NBA. His main upside is he has good physical tools, rebounds well, and protects the rim like a mother bear protects her cubs. His weakness is that he is really lousy offensively at the moment, isn't that strong, and is one of these long-term project guys given his raw ability and youth (21 years old). The Mavericks however want to free up cap-space to get Dwight Howard or another big name, and not having to pay this guy for a few seasons is definitely an upside for the Mavericks. Plus, there might come a time when they need a big guy like this who can actually assist them with rebounding and post-defense. Otherwise, they could always trade him.
#14. Utah Jazz--- Gonzaga C Kelly Olynyk: The Jazz are likely to part ways with either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap this summer and possibly both. Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors clearly are the future front court of this team, but they will need a backup. Olynyk could be the perfect guy to back up Kanter and Favors, and maybe even challenge them for a starting job in a few seasons. He has great mobility for his 7'0, 238 lb frame and has good touch around the rim, which is something that Kanter and Favors could both work on. On the flip side, his weakness is playing defense, which seems to be where Kanter and Favors excel. In other words, they could compliment him and he could compliment them. Seems to be a good fit.
#15. Milwaukee Bucks---Michigan SG Tim Hardaway, Jr.: With Monta Ellis saying goodbye, the Bucks need another shooting guard, and a guy who is a different kind of shooting guard. Monta Ellis and their current point guard Brandon Jennings were too similar last season. Both are score first guards who are undersized. With Hardaway at his side, Jennings could focus more on his point guard duties, knowing he has a true shooting guard by his side who is 6'6 and has a nice perimeter shooting game. Plus, Hardaway is a standout guy, who is used to playing in the Midwest. He's the kind of guy that could be there for the long haul.
#16. Boston Celtics---Syracuse PG Michael Carter-Williams: This pick makes sense for two reasons: (1) They are likely to depart with Rajon Rondo and they are in need of a point guard. (2) Carter-Williams is from Massachusetts, so he'd feel right at home playing in a Celtics uniform. Carter-Williams has tremendous upside due to his length and size for the point guard position (He stands at 6'5) as well as his skills. He would make a fantastic replacement for Rajon Rondo and would give them good reason to trade Rondo and get good pieces back for him since he fills a need at the point guard position, allowing them to make such a trade.
#17. Atlanta Hawks--Germany PG Dennis Schroeder: Schroeder is one of the more interesting international prospects in this draft: A 6'2, 168 lb point guard with great passing ability and tremendous speed and quickness. However, he isn't the most polished point guard given his weak handles, which makes him turnover prone. That being said, the Hawks could use another point guard as Jeff Teague and Devin Harris can't possibly be taken seriously to be their long-term point guards. Teague doesn't have the skills and as for Devin Harris, look no further than what happened in Utah. I could easily see the Hawks draft Schroeder and then trade Devin Harris or Jeff Teague to a team that needs a point guard. This is similar to the Rajon Rondo situation in Boston.
#18. Atlanta Hawks---UCLA SF Shabazz Muhammad: The Hawks are likely to part ways with Josh Smith and they might be looking for another small forward. If Shabazz Muhammad is available, fully expect the Hawks to take him. Muhammad has the physical abilities to be a really good small forward as he is 6'6, 223 lbs and is really athletic. Plus, he can score the ball. He would definitely be a good pickup for the Hawks should he be available.
#19. Cleveland Cavaliers---Greece SF Giannis Adetokunbo: This kid is an interesting player given he is so young (18 years old). He's 6'9 and weighs a slender 196 lbs. He needs to get bulkier and stronger, and definitely is a kid that won't come in and make an immediate impact. However, he has the physical tools to be really good and he shows flashes of offensive versatility. He has tremendous upside and potential and could be a really good fit in a few years with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and Alex Len. That could be a solid starting five for the Cavs.
#20. Chicago Bulls---California SG/SF Allen Crabbe: Being a UC Berkeley student, I had the chance to watch Crabbe play a little bit and what I liked about him was he seemed to have a good capability to score from the wing. However, he also lacked aggression and assertiveness. He didn't seem confident taking the big shots for the Golden Bears or taking over the game all the time. However, he does have tremendous offensive potential given that he can score the ball well (averaged 18.4 points per game for Cal last season). Expect Derrick Rose to be the aggressive player in the backcourt for the Bulls, which should help Allen Crabbe, as it will take time for him to develop a killer instinct in the NBA. The Bulls do need somebody to assist Derrick Rose in the backcourt in terms of scoring, and that is something Crabbe should definitely be capable of doing.
#21. Utah Jazz--South Dakota State PG Nate Wolters: In case you were reading this mock draft and were thinking "I thought the Jazz wanted a point guard", you were correct, and I think they really should take Nate Wolters out of South Dakota State. The reason is because he has good size for a point guard (6'4, 190 lbs), shoots well from the outside, and is a very polished point guard in terms of his handles and passing skills. The only real knock on him is that he isn't the most athletic point guard out there and he played in the Summit League, which is a mid-major conference. But aside from that, he seems really promising. But there is one more reason I think that the Jazz should take Nate Wolters, which is that he is the kind of kid who would stick around in Utah for the long-term. After what happened with the Deron Williams situation, the Jazz should want a guy who is going to want to stick in Utah for the long haul. Guys who come from big schools like Michael Carter-Williams typically don't like to stay in tiny little Utah, where there is a lack of urban and big city life. A talented young kid from South Dakota State who works really hard and comes from more humble circumstances is much more likely to stay in Utah. This kid potentially has John Stockton written all over him. He comes from a small school, impressed people at the combine, and has a good work ethic. The reason John Stockton and Karl Malone both liked Utah and stayed there was because they weren't looking to play in big markets due to their humble beginnings. Stockton in Gonzaga and Malone in Louisiana. I understand that Michael Carter-Williams and Dennis Schroeder might on paper be more appealing to the Jazz, but Wolters is the kind of guy that is more likely to stay in Utah for the long hault due to his background. Plus, none of these point guards are expected to be franchise changing point guards in terms of becoming the next Chris Paul, so I really don't see much of a difference between taking Wolters instead of those other two guys. The Jazz can be 95%-100% sure that Wolters will still be here at 21, which is why they should have the confidence to draft Olynk at 14.
#22. Brooklyn Nets---Louisville C Gorgui Dieng: The Nets are kind of a weak team inside given that Brook Lopez isn't much of a banger. That's why Gorgui Dieng would be such a nice pick up for the Nets in the draft. He is 6'11, 245 lbs, and can become a really good defensive player in the NBA. The only downside of him is his ceiling is limited in that most scouts are fairly certain he is destined to be a rotational big guy who clogs the middle and grabs you some boards. But since the Nets could use a guy just like that, I see Dieng being drafted by the Nets.
#23. Indiana Pacers---Miami PG Shane Larkin: The Pacers need help at the point guard position, and Shane Larkin could be a really good fit for them. In the short term, he could back up George Hill and maybe do a better job than D.J. Augustine. Long-term, he could become their starter. Larkin's only downside is he is 5'11 171 lbs and isn't at all long. However, his speed and quickness just might make up for that as well as his ability to pass the ball and run an offense. I see a lot of teams being hesitant to take him due to his size and I see him falling, but not past the Pacers if they can get him. In terms of why Wolters goes before him, Wolters' 6'4 190 lb frame is less worrisome than a 5'11 171 lb frame.
#24. New York Knicks---Duke C Mason Plumlee: The Knicks could use some size and somebody who could score in the paint. That's what Mason Plumlee ( 6'11 240 lbs) could do for them as well as play some post defense. His ceiling might be low, but this is the late first round. I think a guy who can play good defense in the middle and score in the paint could be of great use to the Knicks.
#25. Los Angeles Clippers---North Texas PF Tony Mitchell: Tony Mitchell is a guy who can block some shots, rebound on the offensive glass, and finish around the rim. The Clippers could use a guy like that to fill in for Blake Griffin for 15-20 minutes a game. He is raw offensively, but with a 6'9, 236 lb body, Mitchell should be able to get his way in the paint and provide valuable minutes as a post player off the bench for the Clippers.
#26. Minnesota Timberwolves---Rio Grande Valley Vipers SG/SF Glen Rice, Jr:
The Timberwolves need a shooting guard and Glen Rice, Jr. could be a really nice fit. He has experience playing pro ball in the D-League and more importantly he is a good scorer, which is what the Timberwolves need to go alongside Ricky Rubio in the backcourt.
#27. Denver Nuggets---New Mexico SF Tony Snell: The Nuggets won't be getting their desired superstar with this pick, but they could get a guy who can score the ball and contribute to their up and down athletic style of play. Tony Snell definitely could help them in that way.
#28. San Antonio Spurs---France C Rudy Gobert: The Spurs could use a center, and Rudy Gobert would be a nice pick up for them given his 7'2, 238 body frame that could easily be filled out a lot more. We found out that Tiago Splitter can't control the paint in the NBA Finals and that Tim Duncan needs help in that department. Spurs PF Aron Baynes didn't do anything at all for the Spurs in terms of controlling the paint, so he might not be back with the team next season. The real kicker for me is that Gobert is French, which means he and Tony Parker just might become buddies on the team. Parker could get the most out of Gobert and inspire him to play better. In addition, Parker could benefit from having another Frenchman on the team for morale purposes.
#29. Oklahoma City Thunder---Kansas C Jeff Withey: Standing at 6'11, 230 lbs, Withey needs to get stronger, but he does show promise to be a good post-defender. Perhaps he and Serge Ibaka someday become the great wall of OKC or something in the paint. They have been rumored to be shopping Kendrick Perkins or at the very least have been encouraged to by fans, and so adding a guy like Withey with the potential to play good defense in the paint could make that decision to trade Perkins a lot easier for them.
#30. Phoenix Suns---San Diego State SG Jamaal Franklin: Like I said, the Suns could use a lot of things. Franklin is an athletic shooting guard at 6'5 205 lbs, which is another piece they could use. Franklin is incredibly athletic, hard working, and loves to attack the basket. This sounds like the exact opposite of Michael Beasley, who was a lazy bum last season. The Suns need a guy to give them life and energy and this guy will certainly do that for them.
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Thursday, June 27, 2013
Friday, October 19, 2012
The NBA's PED Policy: Standing In No Man's Land
(note: I wrote this article a couple of years ago for an English Class I did. The World Anti-Doping Agency has come out and said that the NBA's drug testing policy is insufficient. Figured I'd share this with you guys).
The National Basketball Association is one of the four major sports in America, with the other three being Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, and the National Football League. All four sports (as well as other sports not in that list) have had to deal with an era of performance enhancing drugs (PED). While Major League Baseball and the National Football League have been coming down harder on the use of banned substances for performance enhancement, the NBA has remained idle in hoping that the topic of PEDs would simply vanish from the table all together. The NBA’s current testing policy for PEDs is pretty weak. The current policy, which was established in the 2005 collective bargaining agreement, is that players get four random tests during the year and one during the off-season. This is certainly a better policy than the one that was implemented in the 1999 collective bargaining agreement where only rookies were subject to these tests, and the rest of the players only faced one test a year during training camp, and then they were in the clear. The only exception under the old policy was if a player was “suspect” of doping, which is too vague, and not aggressive enough.
Despite being more aggressive and proactive, the current policy still has flaws. There are three key things that this policy lacks: sufficient punishment, emphasis/priority, and thorough testing. These three issues hold the NBA back from having a legitimate drug-testing program that can be taken seriously. As it stands, the current NBA drug testing policy is in “no mans land”. On paper they do have a drug testing policy, which is enough to get the public eye off their backs, but not enough to actually stop and prevent the use of performance enhancing drugs.
Regarding punishment, first time offenders for PED use only get 10 games of suspension, as in the case of Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic, who got a 10 game suspension for elevated levels of testosterone. 10 games is a slap on the wrist in comparison to the 50 game suspension of MLB and the 4 game suspension that the NFL kicks out. They need to amp up the games that a player would be suspended if he in fact got caught. Let’s be real. 10 games are roughly 12% of the NBA season. That is nothing! These guys don’t have to feel like they are taking much of a risk if they haven’t gotten caught yet because getting caught doesn’t really hurt you all that much! It isn’t like Baseball where 50 games is 30% of your season, and where in the NFL four games is 25 % of the season!
It is also apparent, that the issue of PEDs is not a priority or concern of the NBA. David Stern, the commissioner said about the matter in a report by Marc Stein of ESPN “ It’s not a problem we think we have”. The quote was in direct relation to steroids, which is the poster-child of performance enhancing drugs. I don’t know what on earth David Stern was thinking when he said this! Hopefully he was just being naïve! The reality whether he likes it or not is that the NBA does have a PED problem or at the very least, reason to be concerned about it. The evidence is about as clear as the evidence in baseball from a physical observation perspective. Look how big Shaquille O’Neal’s arms got! Look how ripped Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Kobe Bryant are! Rashard Lewis gets busted for drugs, and the rest of these guys are clean?! I don’t think so. The fact that nobody in the NBA except idiots like Rashard Lewis gets busted means that the NBA isn’t really testing for PEDs.
If David Stern doesn’t make it a priority, and says these kinds of comments, then what does that say about the rest of his league officials who are supposed to police it? It means that they aren’t being pressured to really check for illegal substances.
Now I will defend David Stern for just one moment, by explaining the logic of why his sport doesn’t have to worry about steroids, HGH, and other drugs. Stern, as well as others in the NBA, says that drugs that are used to enhance strength like Steroids and HGH aren’t useful in basketball like they are in football and baseball from a power perspective. Other sports like running, cycling, etc. need PEDs for long endurance that basketball players don’t really need. Marc Stein also interviewed NBA player Shane Battier who said about NBA players using PEDs to get stronger “Something you've got to understand is that basketball players just don't like to lift weights. Most of us would rather be out playing ball. We all grew up either on the playground or in the gym. If we're going to spend time working on our game, we're going to be on the court."
Tony Massenburg, another former NBA player stated the same thing, along with Grant Hill, who currently plays for the Phoenix Suns.
Former Stanford all-star and NBA player Mark Madsen wrote on his blog about the matter “I've made a very long list of mistakes and blunders in my own life large and small. Taking HGH, steroids, or any other type of Performance Enhancing drug, is not one of them. I had one interaction directly with this issue where someone asked me if "I had every considered using 'the growth hormone.'" Was this a direct offer? It probably was given the background and the situation, thought I'll never really know for sure. This interaction took place in the summer of 2000 after my Stanford playing days were over and before I joined the Lakers. I mentioned to the individual that I had no interest, and that was it. I've never ever seen it since in all of my NBA days nor is there any concrete evidence or whispers among the players that this has been or is a major problem.”
The center of their logic is that steroids and HGH won’t help you because getting bulkier will slow you down, and that NBA players hate to weight lift, and have other priorities. The logic behind other PEDs is that they won’t help you with the kind of endurance that runners, sprinters, and other endurance athletes need. Basketball being a more stop and go sport doesn’t need the kind of PEDs that those guys need. By eliminating all the things that basketball players don’t need from PEDs the NBA hopes that you can put it all aside and on the back burner.
But the reality is, that Basketball players are getting bigger, they do want to get stronger, and they are getting stronger. I don’t care who you are, strength helps in any sport, whether it’s lacrosse, swimming, or basketball. To say that basketball players don’t lift weights is ridiculous. Of course they do. These guys are a hybrid of basketball players and semi-body builders at the same time. Does the NBA really expect us to be so naive to think that certain players and certain stars don’t apply a little bit of steroids or HGH on their body to get stronger? The reality is that they probably do. Point blank. But, I can’t prove it for sure because nobody is getting “caught”.
This is the same problem that baseball has had. Suspicious players not getting caught and getting off scotch free because the testing is a joke. The fact that no NBA players are testing positive for any PEDs to me personally states that the NBA obviously has a really soft stance and attack on PEDs. If they were really passionate about keeping their sport clean, they wouldn’t have any problem with really jacking up the testing, and ratting out a few stars who are using them. If they started to test stringently, the NBA would be catching a whole bunch of players! But they aren’t catching anybody, which means that they aren’t testing that intensely. Occasionally guys like Rashard Lewis get busted, but that is always rare. The vast bulk of the players know how to easily fly under the radar and not get detected.
On a side note, another reason why the NBA isn’t particular about its policy for PEDs is because they’ve had bigger fish to fry with the officiating scandal that was opened like a can of worms thanks to Tim Donaghy. Tim Donaghy officiated for many moons in the NBA and betted on games that he officiated, and fixed the scores to cover the spread of he and his bookie buddies. With all that going down, David Stern has had his eyes on cleaning up the image of his refs, and making sure that the public has confidence in the integrity of its officials, which to me is a much bigger issue.
When the media thinks about MLB in a negative light, they think steroids. When the media thinks negatively about the NBA they think poor officials who cheat. That is the reality. Baseball has had to fight the steroid the battle, and the NBA has had to fight the officiating battle, and leave aside the PEDs for another day. The thought of busting players for taking PEDs and also having to bust refs for rigging games is too much for the NBA to handle at one time.
But the NBA doesn’t want to appear as though they don’t care about PEDs, and so they have set a policy up in place that “appears” like they really test hard for it, when in reality, they don’t. It’s time for the NBA to step up and either really come down on it, and eliminate it from their sport, or have no policy at all. Maybe just let everybody do what they want, and believe in good faith that nobody is taking them (which is their claim anyway). So, if they feel like PEDs really doesn’t belong in basketball, then they should police it a lot harder. But if they feel like it isn’t really an issue, then they should just let it go, and not worry about it. But having this iffy policy that is standing in “No Man’s Land” is absurd.
This leads me to the third key thing that I mentioned above, which is that they don’t test for everything that is banned. The NBA is much harder on steroids, but their policy on HGH is literally non-existent! The NBA as of right now doesn’t test for HGH because the NBA Players Union doesn’t want to do the blood tests that would spot HGH. So even though they look tough through doing four “random” tests per year, they really can’t be doing any good, if everybody is off steroids and on to HGH anyway. Ezine articles reports “Human growth hormone supplements have been found to produce stunning reversal of the aging process and results from several important studies showed that those who took HGH supplements experienced an 84% improvement in their energy level; 75% improvement in their sexual potency and 88% improvement in muscle strength when combined with a daily exercise program.”
If the NBA isn’t even testing for it, than why not use it if you are a NBA player who wants to get stronger and doesn’t want to lift a ton of weights? The benefits of HGH are as good as steroids, and since the NBA doesn’t test for it, players can use it rampantly and nobody will know! With that being the case, the NBA really doesn’t have all that hard of a drug testing policy!
They’re trying to appeal to both the players who don’t want stringent testing, and the fans/media who want to make sure it’s being policed. You can’t have it both ways. You have to either stomp it out, and be sniffing blood, and actually catch the players who do it because you really hate the thought of steroids being used, or you have to let it go and admit that you really don’t care if they are used. But being in this middle ground where you care enough about it to set up a measly little plan to stop PEDs, but not enough to actually get it to work and stomp it out of your sport is ridiculous and fraudulent.
They have to know that we can see that the NBA players are getting more athletic and it has to be partly because of PEDs. The NBA is caught in this ugly web where they feel like society is pressuring them to have a drug testing policy that they really don’t want to police. It’s there in the rulebook, but it can’t possibly get all that enforced. This comes from the top. The top (David Stern) has spoken, and said it’s not a concern or a problem. With that being said, it means that the bottom isn’t doing its job to police the drug problem. They are halfway up the building in an elevator right now. Where they are right now isn’t the right destination. Going up the elevator means having to really come down hard on a whole bunch of athletes, which isn’t fun to do. Going down the elevator means that they abandon all policy and just trust in their players to be honest or simply allow it to be apart of the game, but believe that their players won’t take drugs because they won’t gain from the use of the drugs. Those are their two options.
I would finally conclude with what I personally think the NBA should do about the drug issue. They need to test for everything at least 4 times a year and make it random. They need to do the blood testing for HGH, and also the tests for steroids as well as other drugs. The NFL and MLB are tightening up their programs, and it’s time that the NBA does as well. As long as the NBA does not test for HGH, then they really aren’t where they are supposed to be. Right now, all they have is a program that tests for only some of the stuff that they should be testing for. They need to get on board and test for HGH and get this stuff cracked down on, and actually show that they want to stomp out PED use. But as of right now, they are standing in “No Man’s Land” with a policy that gets the critics off their back, and that’s it!
Reflection: As a Quick reflection on this topic, I learned a lot about the state of the NBA's PED policy, and was able to gain an opinion on it based off of my observations. It was really cool in my mind to be able to research a social issue that mattered to me and learn enough about it to be able to talk to others about it on a regular basis. It was really fun and exciting to do.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Stan Van Gundy Thinks D-Rose May Bolt The Windy City: Sour Grapes Or Is He On To Something?
Stan Van Gundy has come out and spoken his mind on the future of Chicago Bulls superstar Derrick Rose, stating something to the effect that it is likely Rose bolts the Windy City unless he gets another superstar to come join him. It's easy to call his words merely sour grapes after the fallout of the Dwight Howard saga; but it can't be ignored that many superstars are joining forces in order to "keep up with the jones'" of the NBA. Carlos Boozer certainly hasn't delivered the goods, and Luol Deng is a "B-level" all star. Derrick Rose is clearly the best player on the team and the team only can go as far as his shoulders can carry them. A better sidekick for Derrick Rose definitely seems to be a necessity for Chicago if they want to compete for a title. One thing that is in the Bulls' favor is the fact that they are located in one of the 5 biggest markets in the NBA. A move to LA, Boston, Miami, and New York seems highly unlikely for Derrick Rose. No other destination out there seems to make sense for Derrick to choose over Chicago, which is why he likely stays. But if Chicago wants to firmly lock up Rose for the long term, they'll want to find a player other than Boozer and Deng that can help him lead the Bulls to a championship. Otherwise, Stan Van Gundy's words may come to fruition.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Why Dwight Howard Is Over-Rated
Dwight Howard is considered by many to be the most dominant force in the NBA. Standing at 6'11 and weighing 265 lbs, Dwight Howard's body acts like a brick wall to many who coming flying towards the rim. Thanks to his freakish build that you'd only expect to see in video games, Dwight Howard has convinced many people that he is indeed Superman and that he is rightfully the most coveted player in the game today.
But if you strip away the Superman cape, get past his frightening frame, and look to his stats, you realize he isn't nearly as good as we all like to think he is. Dwight Howard's numbers are solid, and I mean that in a good way. He averaged 20.6 points and 14.5 rebounds per game last season along with a shade over 2 blocks per contest. Those numbers tell us he is the best center in the NBA by a long shot. But if you start to compare him to great NBA centers who came before him, it becomes clear he has a ways to go before he can truly be considered a great center.
Last season, at the age of 26, Dwight Howard averaged 20.6 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game. Those numbers look really solid until you stack it up to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at the age of 26. When Kareem was 26, he averaged 27.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game. A 26 year old Kareem eats Dwight Howard for lunch. You think maybe Kareem had inflated stats do to weaker competition? Well, lets compare Dwight Howard to Patrick Ewing when Ewing was 26 years old. When Ewing was 26 years old, he averaged 22.7 points per game, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game. Comparing stat lines, it's a toss up between Ewing and Howard if you ask me. Ewing scored a little more, and blocked more shots. Next, let's compare Dwight Howard to Hakeem Olajuwon, who Dwight Howard could use some coaching from (especially if he gets traded to Houston). When Olajuwon was 26 years old, he averaged 24.8 points per game, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks. Olajuwon easily wins that battle. At 26 years of age, Hakeem Olajuwon was a vastly superior center to Dwight Howard. He was a better scorer, an almost equal rebounder, and a better shot blocker. At the age of 26, David Robinson averaged 23.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 4.5 blocks, and he was only in his 3rd year in the league! Finally, lets compare Dwight Howard at the age of 26 to Shaquille O'Neal at the age of 26. At the age of 26, Shaquille O'Neal averaged 26.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. That doesn't look like Shaq was all that much better. But wait, this wasn't Shaq's best stat line up to this point of his career. His best stat line came in Orlando when he was 21 years old! When Shaq was 21, he averaged 29.3 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game. So, the Superman cape really does need to come off!
After analyzing their stats, it can't even be debated whether or not Dwight Howard is as good as these players were at his age. They were all vastly better, and mostly on the offensive end. These guys had better moves, better touch, and a better knack for putting the ball in the hole. If Dwight Howard wants to take a big leap forward in his development, it has to be on the offensive end. Right now, Dwight Howard is not that polished of a center and not very offensively assertive. No matter how many rebounds and blocks he gets, he won't become a championship caliber center until he can score in the same range as Shaq, Kareem, Ewing, and Hakeem. Not only that, but at this age, he needs to be entering the prime of his career, having the very best years at ages 27-30. Instead of developing his game and getting better, he seems to be caught up in his own ego and indecision about where he wants to play next.
(image from: dimemag.com)
So, to answer my question, is Dwight Howard over-rated? The answer is yes. The reason is because if you compare him to the greatest centers in recent NBA history, he isn't nearly as good as them. Not only that, but Dwight Howard also has a much bigger ego than these guys all had, and he seems much less focused. Let's not forget that Dwight Howard at the age of 26 is more NBA experienced than any of these guys were at the same age. All these other players played at least a year or two in college. Dwight Howard really should have numbers as good as these guys by now since he came directly from high school!
The fuss over Dwight Howard seems ridiculous if you look at him in comparison to any of the players that I just compared him to. He's a really good player, and is the best center in the NBA. But unlike the hall of fame players that I just mentioned earlier, he isn't a franchise changing center. Orlando couldn't win a title with him as the center piece, and until he improves his offense, I would have to say that I don't see him leading a team to a title outside of Orlando. If people stop to look at the numbers, and compare him to great centers of former years, it becomes clear that Dwight Howard just isn't worth nearly as much as we all think he is.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
2012 Mock Draft
Here is my 2012 NBA Mock Draft. One of the things I did in preparation for this was calculate every prospect's efficiency using the formula on NBA.com. I will display their efficiency rating next to the players name. Here we go!!!
#1 New Orleans Hornets- Kentucky PF/C Anthony Davis (+26.125 Efficiency rating):
Pretty obvious choice here. Anthony Davis has the best efficiency rating of all players entering the draft, which is no surprise since he is the consensus #1 pick. Anthony Davis is said to be the only "franchise changing player" in this entire draft. The rest of the players are supposed to be at best solid, but Davis is said to be in a league of his own. He's long, athletic, and blocks shots at a ridiculous rate. Once he gets some legitimate low post moves, this kid is gonna be scary in the NBA.
#2 Charlotte Bobcats- Kansas PF Thomas Robinson ( +22.23 Efficiency rating):
The Bobcats have a lot of different options to go with, but I see them taking Thomas Robinson. He's a very solid big man standing at 6'9 and weighing 244. I was deliberating over whether or not the Bobcats would draft Andre Drummond #2, but the reason I think they won't is they want to get a guy who's more ready right away to make a difference in the pros and isn't a "project". Plus, being a Junior, he's more mature than Freshman, etc. His offense needs work, but like all big men, his size and athleticism is what makes him so attractive. Also, among prospects, his efficiency rating ranks pretty high.
3. Washington Wizards-Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (+15.55 Efficiency rating):
Many feel like MKG is the #2 player in the draft, but you can't teach height! Hence he falls down to #3. The Wizards could use a good swingman to go with John Wall at point and Nene down low. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist really makes perfect sense at this pick for them.
#4. Cleveland Cavaliers- Florida SG Bradley Beal (+16.84 Efficiency rating):
Bradley Beal fits perfectly with what the Cleveland Cavaliers want and need, which is a player in the backcourt to accompany Kyrie Irving. Beal is supposed to be one of the most gifted scorers in this draft, and he should make Cleveland's offense much more potent.
#5. Sacramento Kings- Weber State PG Damian Lillard (+23.375 Efficiency rating):
Let's face it, the Kings don't like Jimmer Fredette. The team seemed to freeze him out and not want him on the court. When he was on the court, they seemed to ignore him. Little Isaiah Thomas was doing well enough to sit Jimmer, but long term he's not a viable solution to the "get Jimmer out of town" campaign. What better way to get Jimmer on his way out than to draft an even more talented young point guard from the state of Utah? The Kings still need a point guard, and drafting Lillard will fill the need and also give them reason to deal Jimmer. Look for the Kings to take Lillard #5.
#6. Portland Trail Blazers-Duke SG Austin Rivers (+11.088 Efficiency rating):
Surprisingly to me, Rivers efficiency rating was pretty weak, but keep in mind he's a freshman. His offensive upside and overall potential will get him drafted higher than he probably should. If you ask me, he should be a mid to late first round pick. But he's gonna get picked high, and I see Portland picking him to fill the void of Brandon Roy. Plus, they've had bad luck drafting big men over the years!
#7. Golden State Warriors- UCONN PF/C Andre Drummond (+14.21 Efficiency rating):
Drummond had a weak season at UCONN, but many feel he has the highest potential ceiling of any player in this draft aside from Anthony Davis. The Warriors are trying to move away from small ball, and they have Andrew Bogut in place to help show Drummond the ropes down low.
#8. Toronto Raptors- North Carolina PF John Henson (+19.31 Efficiency rating):
The Raptors have a solid Center down low in Andrea Bargnani, but they could always use another big guy down there to help Bargnani out. Plus, this guy is a good athletic shot blocker, who'll provide solid interior defense down low. Something Toronto desperately needs.
#9. Detroit Pistons- North Carolina SF Harrison Barnes (+13.76 Efficency rating):
Tayshaun Prince is retiring soon, and they need a small forward to fill his spot. Plus, Prince would be a perfect mentor to Barnes and would really help him grow. Barnes would be an ideal player to go to the motor city. A combo of Brandon Knight and Harrison Barnes could be pretty good in a couple of years.
#10. New Orleans Hornets- North Carolina C Tyler Zeller (+21.58 Efficiency rating):
The Hornets will already have a defensive fiend down low in Davis. So why not couple him down low with a guy who is his exact opposite. Zeller is a fantastic offensive player, who shoots around 80% from the foul line. He lacks good post defense, but having Davis down low would mask that. Look for the front court to get a lot bigger and better in the Big Easy.
#11. Portland Trail Blazers- North Carolina PG Kendall Marshall (+15.056 Efficiency rating):
Marshall needs to improve on his scoring abilities, but he's a great facilitator and he'd be the perfect guy to distribute the ball to the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and Wes Matthews.
#12. Houston Rockets- Washington SG/SF Terrence Ross (+16.542 Efficiency rating):
Look, we all know the Rockets are stacking picks to get Dwight Howard. But if they keep this pick or trade it, look for Terrence Ross to get picked up about here. He's pretty offensively polished, and seems to have a lot of potential. The Cavs reportedly like him a lot, and he could get picked higher than #12. But this seems to be probably the earliest he'd be taken.
#13. Phoenix Suns- St. Bonaventure PF/C Andrew Nicholson (+21.718 Efficiency rating):
He played at a small school, but like Damien Lillard, he's got the game to back it up. The only knock on him is his lack of strength, but he's got a very good offensive game, and a nice shot. All Phoenix has down low are bangers who can't hit the broad side of barn (i.e. Robin Lopez). Nicholson's offensive abilities down low seem to be exactly what the doctor ordered down in the valley of the sun.
#14. Milwaukee Bucks- Illinois C Meyers Leonard (+18.469 Efficiency rating):
The reports I've read on him say he's got a good offensive game but just needs to continue to improve his all around play. Here's the deal, the Bucks dealt Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis because they were tired of Bogut always being hurt and they thought Ellis could provide their backcourt with a nice punch. I don't think anybody including the Bucks knows what to make of Epkeh Udoh, who still needs to develop a better interior post game offensively. Leonard has a better offensive game than Udoh does, and can potentially replace the production of Bogut down low. Leonard is a perfect fit for Milwaukee who needs somebody good down low to help create a more balanced offensive attack. Ellis and Jennings is a nice backcourt, but the need a legitimate down low threat.
#15 Philadelphia 76ers- Mississippi State PF Arnett Moultrie (+21.100 Efficiency rating):
Spencer Hawes may not be returning to Philly, and Arnett Moultrie could maybe make the departure of Hawes easier. The Sixers got plenty of young legs to run up and down the court. What they need is a big body to crash the boards and score down low.
#16. Houston Rockets-UCONN SG Jeremy Lamb (Efficiency rating +16.53):
Good chance Lamb falls a bit if Portland doesn't take him #6. This draft is deep enough that teams will likely draft more need than who is best overall. Good player, that will be a great addition wherever he goes. But he's got nice offensive abilities, and could be a particularily good piece of trade bait for Houston to use should they try and deal for Dwight Howard.
#17. Dallas Mavericks- Baylor SF/PF Perry Jones (Efficiency rating +15.70):
He's valued high by some due to this athleticism. A good stable organization like Dallas would be a nice landing spot because he wouldn't be expected to come in and make an immediate impact right away.
#18. Houston Rockets- Kentucky PG Marquis Teague (Effiecency Rating+ 11.450):
If the Rockets do decide and move Lowry in a deal, and keep the #18 pick, Marquis Teague could be a nice option to fill Lowry's spot. He needs to cut down on turnovers, and become much more efficient on the court.
#19. Orlando Magic-Kentucky SG Doron Lamb (Efficiency rating +13.150):
Doron Lamb is probably a good fit down in Orlando. They need to start building for the future, and a good solid young SG like Lamb would be a nice way to start. He can put the ball in the hole no question, and with Jameer Nelson handling the point, he can just focus on scoring.
#20. Denver Nuggets-Syracuse SG Dion Waiters (Efficiency rating +12.324):
Hard to know where Waiters goes, but if he's available at #20, Denver will likely take him. He'd be a nice addition to their already deep bench. The only realy knock on him is he needs to learn to adjust to being a SG full time, but George Karl should help him out in that department.
#21. Boston Celtics-Indiana State SF Royce White (Efficiency rating +18.47):
White seems to be the real wild card prospect in this draft. Nobody knows how good he's really going to be. Look for Boston to take a gamble on White. Once you get to this point in the draft, "gamble" on a guy like White isn't such a gamble.
#22. Boston Celtics- Ohio State PF/C Jared Sullinger (Efficiency rating +21.08):
Sullinger's back problems is the only reason he'll be available at this point in the draft. But if healthy, he's a promising a young big man with lottery type potential. Kevin Garnett could be on the move, and Boston might take a gamble on Sullinger if they really like what they see.
#23. Atlanta Hawks-Syracuse C Fab Melo (Efficiency rating +13.10):
I personally feel that the Hawks are one good big man away from being a real title threat. Maybe Fab Melo isn't the answer, but he'd clog the middle and make things tougher for guys like LeBron and Wade coming through the middle.
#24. Cleveland Cavaliers-Kentucky SF/PF Terrence Jones (Efficiency rating +16.079):
He's an explosive young player who can score the ball and he has a ton of potential. He's also a good all around player that seems to be another good weapon for a young team like Cleveland to have.
#25. Memphis Grizzlies- Michigan State SF/PF Draymond Green (Efficiency rating +21.75):
For a player likely picked in the late 1st to early second round, his efficiency rating is quite impressive. The knock on him is he doesn't shine in one area, but then the positive spin on him says he does a little bit of everything. Memphis could use a guy like him that helps them do a little bit of everything. Something Shane Battier used to do for them.
#26. Indiana Pacers- Washington PG/SG Tony Wroten (Efficiency rating +12.94):
He's 6'6 and is listed as a point guard. I've read he attacks the glass well, handles the ball well, and passes well/facilitates quite well. Sounds like a nice addition to Indy, and a lot of teams.
#27. Miami Heat-Vanderbilt C Festus Ezeli (Efficiency rating + 11.46):
If there's one thing Miami needs, it's more size in the paint. Ezeli is a big boy standing at 6'11 and weighing 264 lbs. He needs to improve his offensive abilities, but in Miami, they won't need him to score, they'll just need him to attack the glass and play solid post defense. Miami should feel fairly confident he can do that.
#28. Oklahoma City Thunder- St. John's SF/PF Moe Harkless (Efficiency rating +17.118):
Good chance he's off the board at #28, but he'd be a nice fit in OKC. Another young athletic scorer that has a ton of upside. He'd make the Thunder younger, quicker, and more explosive.
#29. Chicago Bulls- Vanderbilty SF Jeffery Taylor (Efficiency rating +15.22):
He gets good marks on his defensive abilities and we all know coach Thibs loves defense. He'd fit right in Chicago and give their bench another layer of depth.
#30. Golden State Warriors- Baylor SF Quincy Miller (Efficiency rating + 11.32):
He is said to be one of the more skilled players in this draft who can score well, and create his own shot. Not to mention he's a long lengthy dude. The concern with him is he had ACL surgery, and his lack of explosiveness will concern enough teams to have him drop into the late 1st /early 2nd round. But he does show promise, and he'd be worth picking up for Golden State at the #30 pick.
(thanks to NBADraft.net for providing me with additional analysis and insight into all these prospects).
#1 New Orleans Hornets- Kentucky PF/C Anthony Davis (+26.125 Efficiency rating):
Pretty obvious choice here. Anthony Davis has the best efficiency rating of all players entering the draft, which is no surprise since he is the consensus #1 pick. Anthony Davis is said to be the only "franchise changing player" in this entire draft. The rest of the players are supposed to be at best solid, but Davis is said to be in a league of his own. He's long, athletic, and blocks shots at a ridiculous rate. Once he gets some legitimate low post moves, this kid is gonna be scary in the NBA.
#2 Charlotte Bobcats- Kansas PF Thomas Robinson ( +22.23 Efficiency rating):
The Bobcats have a lot of different options to go with, but I see them taking Thomas Robinson. He's a very solid big man standing at 6'9 and weighing 244. I was deliberating over whether or not the Bobcats would draft Andre Drummond #2, but the reason I think they won't is they want to get a guy who's more ready right away to make a difference in the pros and isn't a "project". Plus, being a Junior, he's more mature than Freshman, etc. His offense needs work, but like all big men, his size and athleticism is what makes him so attractive. Also, among prospects, his efficiency rating ranks pretty high.
3. Washington Wizards-Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (+15.55 Efficiency rating):
Many feel like MKG is the #2 player in the draft, but you can't teach height! Hence he falls down to #3. The Wizards could use a good swingman to go with John Wall at point and Nene down low. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist really makes perfect sense at this pick for them.
#4. Cleveland Cavaliers- Florida SG Bradley Beal (+16.84 Efficiency rating):
Bradley Beal fits perfectly with what the Cleveland Cavaliers want and need, which is a player in the backcourt to accompany Kyrie Irving. Beal is supposed to be one of the most gifted scorers in this draft, and he should make Cleveland's offense much more potent.
#5. Sacramento Kings- Weber State PG Damian Lillard (+23.375 Efficiency rating):
Let's face it, the Kings don't like Jimmer Fredette. The team seemed to freeze him out and not want him on the court. When he was on the court, they seemed to ignore him. Little Isaiah Thomas was doing well enough to sit Jimmer, but long term he's not a viable solution to the "get Jimmer out of town" campaign. What better way to get Jimmer on his way out than to draft an even more talented young point guard from the state of Utah? The Kings still need a point guard, and drafting Lillard will fill the need and also give them reason to deal Jimmer. Look for the Kings to take Lillard #5.
#6. Portland Trail Blazers-Duke SG Austin Rivers (+11.088 Efficiency rating):
Surprisingly to me, Rivers efficiency rating was pretty weak, but keep in mind he's a freshman. His offensive upside and overall potential will get him drafted higher than he probably should. If you ask me, he should be a mid to late first round pick. But he's gonna get picked high, and I see Portland picking him to fill the void of Brandon Roy. Plus, they've had bad luck drafting big men over the years!
#7. Golden State Warriors- UCONN PF/C Andre Drummond (+14.21 Efficiency rating):
Drummond had a weak season at UCONN, but many feel he has the highest potential ceiling of any player in this draft aside from Anthony Davis. The Warriors are trying to move away from small ball, and they have Andrew Bogut in place to help show Drummond the ropes down low.
#8. Toronto Raptors- North Carolina PF John Henson (+19.31 Efficiency rating):
The Raptors have a solid Center down low in Andrea Bargnani, but they could always use another big guy down there to help Bargnani out. Plus, this guy is a good athletic shot blocker, who'll provide solid interior defense down low. Something Toronto desperately needs.
#9. Detroit Pistons- North Carolina SF Harrison Barnes (+13.76 Efficency rating):
Tayshaun Prince is retiring soon, and they need a small forward to fill his spot. Plus, Prince would be a perfect mentor to Barnes and would really help him grow. Barnes would be an ideal player to go to the motor city. A combo of Brandon Knight and Harrison Barnes could be pretty good in a couple of years.
#10. New Orleans Hornets- North Carolina C Tyler Zeller (+21.58 Efficiency rating):
The Hornets will already have a defensive fiend down low in Davis. So why not couple him down low with a guy who is his exact opposite. Zeller is a fantastic offensive player, who shoots around 80% from the foul line. He lacks good post defense, but having Davis down low would mask that. Look for the front court to get a lot bigger and better in the Big Easy.
#11. Portland Trail Blazers- North Carolina PG Kendall Marshall (+15.056 Efficiency rating):
Marshall needs to improve on his scoring abilities, but he's a great facilitator and he'd be the perfect guy to distribute the ball to the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and Wes Matthews.
#12. Houston Rockets- Washington SG/SF Terrence Ross (+16.542 Efficiency rating):
Look, we all know the Rockets are stacking picks to get Dwight Howard. But if they keep this pick or trade it, look for Terrence Ross to get picked up about here. He's pretty offensively polished, and seems to have a lot of potential. The Cavs reportedly like him a lot, and he could get picked higher than #12. But this seems to be probably the earliest he'd be taken.
#13. Phoenix Suns- St. Bonaventure PF/C Andrew Nicholson (+21.718 Efficiency rating):
He played at a small school, but like Damien Lillard, he's got the game to back it up. The only knock on him is his lack of strength, but he's got a very good offensive game, and a nice shot. All Phoenix has down low are bangers who can't hit the broad side of barn (i.e. Robin Lopez). Nicholson's offensive abilities down low seem to be exactly what the doctor ordered down in the valley of the sun.
#14. Milwaukee Bucks- Illinois C Meyers Leonard (+18.469 Efficiency rating):
The reports I've read on him say he's got a good offensive game but just needs to continue to improve his all around play. Here's the deal, the Bucks dealt Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis because they were tired of Bogut always being hurt and they thought Ellis could provide their backcourt with a nice punch. I don't think anybody including the Bucks knows what to make of Epkeh Udoh, who still needs to develop a better interior post game offensively. Leonard has a better offensive game than Udoh does, and can potentially replace the production of Bogut down low. Leonard is a perfect fit for Milwaukee who needs somebody good down low to help create a more balanced offensive attack. Ellis and Jennings is a nice backcourt, but the need a legitimate down low threat.
#15 Philadelphia 76ers- Mississippi State PF Arnett Moultrie (+21.100 Efficiency rating):
Spencer Hawes may not be returning to Philly, and Arnett Moultrie could maybe make the departure of Hawes easier. The Sixers got plenty of young legs to run up and down the court. What they need is a big body to crash the boards and score down low.
#16. Houston Rockets-UCONN SG Jeremy Lamb (Efficiency rating +16.53):
Good chance Lamb falls a bit if Portland doesn't take him #6. This draft is deep enough that teams will likely draft more need than who is best overall. Good player, that will be a great addition wherever he goes. But he's got nice offensive abilities, and could be a particularily good piece of trade bait for Houston to use should they try and deal for Dwight Howard.
#17. Dallas Mavericks- Baylor SF/PF Perry Jones (Efficiency rating +15.70):
He's valued high by some due to this athleticism. A good stable organization like Dallas would be a nice landing spot because he wouldn't be expected to come in and make an immediate impact right away.
#18. Houston Rockets- Kentucky PG Marquis Teague (Effiecency Rating+ 11.450):
If the Rockets do decide and move Lowry in a deal, and keep the #18 pick, Marquis Teague could be a nice option to fill Lowry's spot. He needs to cut down on turnovers, and become much more efficient on the court.
#19. Orlando Magic-Kentucky SG Doron Lamb (Efficiency rating +13.150):
Doron Lamb is probably a good fit down in Orlando. They need to start building for the future, and a good solid young SG like Lamb would be a nice way to start. He can put the ball in the hole no question, and with Jameer Nelson handling the point, he can just focus on scoring.
#20. Denver Nuggets-Syracuse SG Dion Waiters (Efficiency rating +12.324):
Hard to know where Waiters goes, but if he's available at #20, Denver will likely take him. He'd be a nice addition to their already deep bench. The only realy knock on him is he needs to learn to adjust to being a SG full time, but George Karl should help him out in that department.
#21. Boston Celtics-Indiana State SF Royce White (Efficiency rating +18.47):
White seems to be the real wild card prospect in this draft. Nobody knows how good he's really going to be. Look for Boston to take a gamble on White. Once you get to this point in the draft, "gamble" on a guy like White isn't such a gamble.
#22. Boston Celtics- Ohio State PF/C Jared Sullinger (Efficiency rating +21.08):
Sullinger's back problems is the only reason he'll be available at this point in the draft. But if healthy, he's a promising a young big man with lottery type potential. Kevin Garnett could be on the move, and Boston might take a gamble on Sullinger if they really like what they see.
#23. Atlanta Hawks-Syracuse C Fab Melo (Efficiency rating +13.10):
I personally feel that the Hawks are one good big man away from being a real title threat. Maybe Fab Melo isn't the answer, but he'd clog the middle and make things tougher for guys like LeBron and Wade coming through the middle.
#24. Cleveland Cavaliers-Kentucky SF/PF Terrence Jones (Efficiency rating +16.079):
He's an explosive young player who can score the ball and he has a ton of potential. He's also a good all around player that seems to be another good weapon for a young team like Cleveland to have.
#25. Memphis Grizzlies- Michigan State SF/PF Draymond Green (Efficiency rating +21.75):
For a player likely picked in the late 1st to early second round, his efficiency rating is quite impressive. The knock on him is he doesn't shine in one area, but then the positive spin on him says he does a little bit of everything. Memphis could use a guy like him that helps them do a little bit of everything. Something Shane Battier used to do for them.
#26. Indiana Pacers- Washington PG/SG Tony Wroten (Efficiency rating +12.94):
He's 6'6 and is listed as a point guard. I've read he attacks the glass well, handles the ball well, and passes well/facilitates quite well. Sounds like a nice addition to Indy, and a lot of teams.
#27. Miami Heat-Vanderbilt C Festus Ezeli (Efficiency rating + 11.46):
If there's one thing Miami needs, it's more size in the paint. Ezeli is a big boy standing at 6'11 and weighing 264 lbs. He needs to improve his offensive abilities, but in Miami, they won't need him to score, they'll just need him to attack the glass and play solid post defense. Miami should feel fairly confident he can do that.
#28. Oklahoma City Thunder- St. John's SF/PF Moe Harkless (Efficiency rating +17.118):
Good chance he's off the board at #28, but he'd be a nice fit in OKC. Another young athletic scorer that has a ton of upside. He'd make the Thunder younger, quicker, and more explosive.
#29. Chicago Bulls- Vanderbilty SF Jeffery Taylor (Efficiency rating +15.22):
He gets good marks on his defensive abilities and we all know coach Thibs loves defense. He'd fit right in Chicago and give their bench another layer of depth.
#30. Golden State Warriors- Baylor SF Quincy Miller (Efficiency rating + 11.32):
He is said to be one of the more skilled players in this draft who can score well, and create his own shot. Not to mention he's a long lengthy dude. The concern with him is he had ACL surgery, and his lack of explosiveness will concern enough teams to have him drop into the late 1st /early 2nd round. But he does show promise, and he'd be worth picking up for Golden State at the #30 pick.
(thanks to NBADraft.net for providing me with additional analysis and insight into all these prospects).
Friday, May 18, 2012
Miami Vice
The Miami Heat right now trail the Indiana Pacers 2-1 in the eastern conference semifinals, and with no Chris Bosh for quite a while, the Heat seem to be in massive trouble. The Miami Heat have already been knocked for not having a middle and for not having any sort of a middle or legitimate post presence even with Chris Bosh on the floor. But now that he's out with an abdominal strain, the Heat's middle seems to have really shrunk to the point that it appears as thought there are midgets playing down in the post. Let's be real here folks: Ronny Turiaf, Joel Anthony, and Juwan Howard can't play a lick of center right now, and LeBron James is struggling to play the power forward position. They have nobody to compete on the glass with Roy Hibbert, David West, and Tyler Hansbrough. The Pacers are mauling the Heat on the glass right now, and that has really made the difference in this series.
The other big flaw that has come to light is Miami's lack of bench depth. When nobody on the bench can score more than 5 points, you aren't going to win many playoff games. The NBA Playoffs is a war of attrition, and you need guys 1-12 step up at some point to win a series. Right now, only guys 1 and 2 are really stepping up for the Heat. The rest of the guys are stinking up the joint and showing why basketball is a team sport, not an individual sport. If their bench continues to suck, then yes, the Miami Heat will lose this series. They need somebody to step up and do what any solid 6th man should do, which is score the ball and take pressure off the stars. Nobody on the Heat is doing that off the bench, and that is why LeBron and Wade are tired down the stretch. With no Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat have to carry 10 yahoos on their back for all 4 quarters. Of course their shots fall short down the stretch. Great teams have the luxury to allow their bench to come in for their stars for around 10-12 minutes a game. The Heat can't play their bench without Wade and James on the floor because they'll get whopped by any team in the league. The fact of the matter is the Heat bench is beyond weak, and LeBron and Wade are too tired to carry this team for all 4 quarters. But before you start defending James and Wade for this, let's keep in mind that they chose to play on this team.
Bench play has always been an important staple of any contending team. It's a fact. Guys who don't start need to step up and play their roles. When they do, their team succeeds. When they don't their team struggles. The need for a bench is one of the most fundamental needs for any basketball team to succeed, and the Miami Heat basically gave the finger to bench play and said "we don't need it, because we have 3 superstars". Well guess who's laughing now? They are getting beat by a team who has a vastly superior bench, and has allocated its resources more evenly from top to bottom. So don't try to defend Wade and James because their bench sucks. They chose to have a chicken-shit bench, and it's coming back to bite them in the butt.
The other big flaw that has come to light is Miami's lack of bench depth. When nobody on the bench can score more than 5 points, you aren't going to win many playoff games. The NBA Playoffs is a war of attrition, and you need guys 1-12 step up at some point to win a series. Right now, only guys 1 and 2 are really stepping up for the Heat. The rest of the guys are stinking up the joint and showing why basketball is a team sport, not an individual sport. If their bench continues to suck, then yes, the Miami Heat will lose this series. They need somebody to step up and do what any solid 6th man should do, which is score the ball and take pressure off the stars. Nobody on the Heat is doing that off the bench, and that is why LeBron and Wade are tired down the stretch. With no Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat have to carry 10 yahoos on their back for all 4 quarters. Of course their shots fall short down the stretch. Great teams have the luxury to allow their bench to come in for their stars for around 10-12 minutes a game. The Heat can't play their bench without Wade and James on the floor because they'll get whopped by any team in the league. The fact of the matter is the Heat bench is beyond weak, and LeBron and Wade are too tired to carry this team for all 4 quarters. But before you start defending James and Wade for this, let's keep in mind that they chose to play on this team.
Bench play has always been an important staple of any contending team. It's a fact. Guys who don't start need to step up and play their roles. When they do, their team succeeds. When they don't their team struggles. The need for a bench is one of the most fundamental needs for any basketball team to succeed, and the Miami Heat basically gave the finger to bench play and said "we don't need it, because we have 3 superstars". Well guess who's laughing now? They are getting beat by a team who has a vastly superior bench, and has allocated its resources more evenly from top to bottom. So don't try to defend Wade and James because their bench sucks. They chose to have a chicken-shit bench, and it's coming back to bite them in the butt.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Lockout Deja Vu?
The NBA Playoffs have finally arrived, and much like the 1998-99 lockout season, we've seen some unusual things thanks to the lockout. Injuries have been the primary fallout of this schedule compressed season, with Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert both tearing ACL's, and Amar'e Stoudemire getting so frustrated at the lockout that he punched a fire extinguisher severing tendons in his hand. But while this lockout has had it's own unique struggles in comparison to the last lockout season in 1998-99, there could also be a certain repeat of events that can't be ignored.
First off, last time there was a lockout season, the Spurs won the NBA Championship. Back in 1999, David Robinson finally quenched his thirst for a championship, and in the process brought the Spurs their first NBA Championship. Perhaps by pure serendipity, the Spurs are once again playing the best basketball in the NBA and maybe on their way to another championship in a lockout season.
Secondly, last time there was a lockout, the #8 seeded New York Knicks upset the #1 seeded Miami Heat in the first round. This season, the #8 seeded Philadelphia 76ers have a 2-1 lead on the #1 seeded Chicago Bulls in the first round. We may once again see the #8 seeded team out east upset the #1 seed. Oh, but it gets even more interesting than that. If you remember, the 8 seeded Knicks in 1999 went to the NBA Finals where they eventually lost to the Spurs. Now, to suggest that the #8 seeded 76ers will reach the NBA Finals in 2012 is crazy right? Well, not exactly. You see, provided they eliminate Chicago, they'll be paired with the Boston Celtics, who for much of the season they were out-playing for the division title before sliding back to the 8th spot. Suppose the Sixers get hot and eliminate the Celtics, and then find themselves facing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Do you not start to think Deja Vu in the Eastern Conference?
The Chances of the Pacers reaching the East finals isn't at all crazy. Their size and depth is exactly what Miami is trying to avoid. Indiana beating Miami and Philadelphia beating Boston are both legitimate possibilities. From there, take a wild guess who wins a 7 game series between the 76ers and the Pacers. It's a coin toss. So, by flipping a coin, we conclude the 76ers knockout the Pacers and are all the way in the NBA Finals.
Meanwhile, back in the Western Conference, the Spurs finish their rampage through the West, and voila, we have the Spurs in the NBA Finals facing the 8 seed from the East, who would this time be the Philadelphia 76ers. To complete this all off, the Spurs win the NBA title like it's 1999.
Does this all sound too crazy and far fetched for you to comprehend? It may at the moment, but mark my words it could all happen, and don't say you didn't hear it from me first. Will the Spurs really win the NBA Championship? In my opinion, I don't see who's gonna stop them. I mean let's be real. If San Antonio plays as well as they've been playing as of late, they'll win the Western Conference title, and likely the NBA Championship. Will the Sixers really win the Eastern Conference title? Well, history says they could, and they have the team to maybe upset Boston or Atlanta in the next round, and there's a solid chance they could avoid Miami altogether. I say why not?
Regardless of what happens in these playoffs, it's fun to speculate and have fun guessing a what would happen. A Spurs/Sixers Final may seem like a pie in the sky to some, but maybe it's what the basketball gods have in store for us. We shall see.
First off, last time there was a lockout season, the Spurs won the NBA Championship. Back in 1999, David Robinson finally quenched his thirst for a championship, and in the process brought the Spurs their first NBA Championship. Perhaps by pure serendipity, the Spurs are once again playing the best basketball in the NBA and maybe on their way to another championship in a lockout season.
Secondly, last time there was a lockout, the #8 seeded New York Knicks upset the #1 seeded Miami Heat in the first round. This season, the #8 seeded Philadelphia 76ers have a 2-1 lead on the #1 seeded Chicago Bulls in the first round. We may once again see the #8 seeded team out east upset the #1 seed. Oh, but it gets even more interesting than that. If you remember, the 8 seeded Knicks in 1999 went to the NBA Finals where they eventually lost to the Spurs. Now, to suggest that the #8 seeded 76ers will reach the NBA Finals in 2012 is crazy right? Well, not exactly. You see, provided they eliminate Chicago, they'll be paired with the Boston Celtics, who for much of the season they were out-playing for the division title before sliding back to the 8th spot. Suppose the Sixers get hot and eliminate the Celtics, and then find themselves facing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Do you not start to think Deja Vu in the Eastern Conference?
The Chances of the Pacers reaching the East finals isn't at all crazy. Their size and depth is exactly what Miami is trying to avoid. Indiana beating Miami and Philadelphia beating Boston are both legitimate possibilities. From there, take a wild guess who wins a 7 game series between the 76ers and the Pacers. It's a coin toss. So, by flipping a coin, we conclude the 76ers knockout the Pacers and are all the way in the NBA Finals.
Meanwhile, back in the Western Conference, the Spurs finish their rampage through the West, and voila, we have the Spurs in the NBA Finals facing the 8 seed from the East, who would this time be the Philadelphia 76ers. To complete this all off, the Spurs win the NBA title like it's 1999.
Does this all sound too crazy and far fetched for you to comprehend? It may at the moment, but mark my words it could all happen, and don't say you didn't hear it from me first. Will the Spurs really win the NBA Championship? In my opinion, I don't see who's gonna stop them. I mean let's be real. If San Antonio plays as well as they've been playing as of late, they'll win the Western Conference title, and likely the NBA Championship. Will the Sixers really win the Eastern Conference title? Well, history says they could, and they have the team to maybe upset Boston or Atlanta in the next round, and there's a solid chance they could avoid Miami altogether. I say why not?
Regardless of what happens in these playoffs, it's fun to speculate and have fun guessing a what would happen. A Spurs/Sixers Final may seem like a pie in the sky to some, but maybe it's what the basketball gods have in store for us. We shall see.
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