Tomahawk Tuesday: What are the odds we see a Warriors-Celtics NBA Finals rematch?

 

                                             (Credit: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports) 

The NBA regular season tips off tonight with both NBA Finals teams playing, though not against each other. The Boston Celtics squared off against the Philadelphia 76ers while the Golden State Warriors faced the Los Angeles Lakers. The NBA obviously wanting to feature both of their NBA Finals teams on opening night. In this blog post, I want to address the possibility that we see a rematch of last year's NBA Finals with the Warriors and Celtics facing each other for a second straight year. 

What helps to boost the odds of both teams facing off is the fact that they have their core rosters back. The Warriors with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. The Celtics with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford. When you bring back a core group that got to the NBA Finals the season before, your odds of getting back are as good as they can get. 

The second thing that helps boost the odds is that the Warriors in particular have been through this rodeo many times before. They've represented the Western Conference in six of the last eight NBA Finals and won four of those six trips. They know what it takes to get back to the NBA Finals. For the Celtics, this is a new journey for them. Whether or not they have what it takes to get back for a second straight year remains to be seen, but if you look at the way things are trending, there's good reason to think they can get back again. 

Aside from injuries, which is always the biggest hurdle to teams getting back to the NBA Finals, probably the biggest hurdle/reason for doubt is the chaos that has surrounded the departure of Celtics head coach Ime Udoka. He was having an improper relationship with a member of the Celtics organization. Whether or not Joe Mazzulla can fill in and guide the Celtics back to the NBA Finals is a big question mark for the Celtics right now. If he can, odds are good Udoka's time in Boston is over. 

On the Warriors side, probably their biggest hurdle is just father time. Curry, Thompson, and Green are all getting older. It's tough to keep playing in June year in and year out and it's possible this last championship was more of a final second wind for the group. But, if there's any group that could navigate this, it's the Warriors. Head coach Steve Kerr does a good job of resting his guys and keeping the eye on the prize. They also have some talented young players who can fill in and take the load off until playoff time. 

Ultimately, if I had to bet on it, I would say we likely won't see both teams back in the NBA Finals in 2023 only because it's just so hard to get back. The Warriors are getting older and it's unclear if they can handle the grind once more while with the Celtics, it's unclear if Mazzulla can get the job done. That said, it wouldn't shock me if we saw a rematch, either. The Warriors do have a lot of experience and the Celtics having now gotten a taste of the NBA Finals are going to be more seasoned and experienced. It'll certainly be fun to see how both teams do and which team does better at getting back for a second straight year. 

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2022 NBA Finals Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

 

                                             Credit: Getty Images/TSN

Tonight, the 2022 NBA Finals tip-off in San Francisco with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Boston Celtics. The Warriors come in having taken out the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the Western Conference Finals while the Celtics snuck past the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, winning the series in seven games. 

The Warriors come into this series as the seasoned NBA Finals veterans having won three NBA championships in 2015, 2017, and 2018 while also reaching the NBA Finals in 2016 and 2019. As for the Celtics, while their franchise historically is tied with the Los Angeles Lakers with most NBA titles (17), this current Celtics group is new to this big of a stage. 

Stephen Curry (25.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, & 6.3 assists) is the leader of this Warriors team, playing some of the best basketball of his entire career. While Kevin Durant is no longer on the team, the Warriors have picked up right where they left off before he even joined them in the first place. They're looking like the Warriors team that won in 2015 with Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins forming a solid core around Curry. 

As for the Celtics, Jayson Tatum (26.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, & 4.4 assists) leads the charge along with Jaylen Brown (23.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, & 3.5 assists). The two of them form a really dynamic wing duo that is very difficult to stop. They too have a solid cast around them in Dennis Schröder, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford. 

As for what's going to determine this series, I think a lot of this comes down to whether or not the Warriors play a clean, efficient series or not and whether or not the Celtics will be able to force them into playing sloppy basketball. The Warriors are the more experienced team. If they play their best basketball, they're going to win this series. However, they sometimes have lulls or moments where they are sloppy and not playing their best. If the Celtics can take advantage of those moments and play a clean, efficient series on their end, this series could get interesting. 

For the Warriors, Curry is going to need to come up big and have an NBA Finals MVP-level performance. They cannot expect to win this series if he isn't playing at his best. He really is the engine that makes this Warriors team go. As for the Celtics, they need Brown and Tatum to be on their game. If those two guys are balling out, the Celtics have a chance. 

Prediction: I got the Warriors winning this series in six games. They have championship experience and know what it takes to win an NBA championship. I think the Celtics will do enough to take a couple games of the series, but when it's all said and done, the Warriors will be the ones lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Stephen Curry will also take home his first NBA Finals MVP award. 

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Saturday Slam: 10 things to look for in the 2021 NBA Playoffs

 

                                                (Credit: NBA.com) 

The 2021 NBA Playoffs are now here. After a fun and exciting play-in tournament, the bracket is fully filled in. Out West, the #1 overall seeded Utah Jazz will take on the #8 Memphis Grizzlies, the #2 Phoenix Suns will take on the #7 Los Angeles Lakers, the #3 Denver Nuggets will face the #6 Portland Trail Blazers, and the #4 Los Angeles Clippers will face the #5 Dallas Mavericks. In the East, the #1 Philadelphia 76ers will face the #8 Washington Wizards, the #2 Brooklyn Nets will face the #7 Boston Celtics, the #3 Milwaukee Bucks will face the #6 Miami Heat, and the #4 New York Knicks will face the #5 Atlanta Hawks. Action will start on Saturday. 

I'm starting something new this year by writing 10 things to look for in the NBA playoffs. I've done this over at my tennis blog ATPGuy.com (click here to check that out) to preview grand slams and I think it's been a pretty effective type of blog post. So now I'm going to start doing it for the NBA playoffs as well! Enjoy! 

#1. Can the Utah Jazz silence the haters? Despite having the best record in the NBA, the Utah Jazz still have plenty of doubters and haters. Part of this has to do with the fact that the Jazz have never won an NBA championship and also the fact that relative to other superstars, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert kinda fly under the radar. This is in part because they play in Utah but also because a big reason for the Jazz' success is the fact that they don't overly rely on Mitchell and Gobert. This is why they were able to hang onto the best record in the NBA despite Mitchell being out for approximately one month due to an ankle injury. 

While they lack the star power that most top seeds usually have, the Jazz do make it up with their depth and unselfishness. They know how to play as a team and how to play off each other's strengths to maximize what they have. 

Donovan Mitchell has been averaging 26.4 points, 5.2 assists, and 1.0 steals per game on the season, so by no means can they win the title without him. They absolutely need him healthy. If he's able to go with little issues, the Jazz could shock the world and win the NBA title. They play basketball the right way, have a great home court advantage, and I also think they're motivated by the fact that everyone is counting them out. 

Note: I also shared this on my Utah Jazz blog. Click here to check that out if you are a Jazz fan. 

#2. Can the Philadelphia 76ers back up their #1 seed out East? I feel like the 76ers have more respect than the Jazz because of the presence of Joel Embiid (28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks), but they too have a lot to prove. They haven't been to the NBA Finals since the 2000-01 season in which Allen Iverson disrespected Tyronn Lue in Game 1 and in general, have found ways to fold in the playoffs over the years. 

Given that Joel Embiid is considered by many to be the best player in the game right now, one can actually argue there's even more pressure on the 76ers than the Jazz. The good news for the 76ers is their draw is pretty friendly. They get the Wizards in round one and then the winner of the Knicks/Hawks series in round two. There's no reason the 76ers shouldn't at least reach the Eastern Conference Finals and in that series, they would have home court advantage. So, count me in as picking the 76ers to win the East. I do think if they faced off against the Brooklyn Nets, they'd find a way to pull it out. Assuming everyone stays healthy of course. 

#3. Can LeBron James will the Los Angeles Lakers to the championship again? The Lakers do not have any easy path to the NBA Finals at all. They are the #7 seed and have to face a very difficult Phoenix Suns team in round one. Even if they win that series, they'd still have to go through the Nuggets and Jazz assuming the brackets hold to get back to the NBA Finals. 

Honestly, I think the Lakers should feel reasonably confident in their abilities to go the distance since they won it all last year and also the fact that the only reason they're seeded so low is because LeBron took a lot of time off to rest his ankle. With everyone now back, they should feel ready to rock and roll. 

As for the part about LeBron willing them specifically, I do think LeBron will need to get a little help from his friends. Namely Anthony Davis, who is the #2 option on this team. LeBron will need to play a big role of course, but he can't do it all by himself. It'll take a team effort like it did last year. 

#4. Can the Brooklyn Nets stay healthy? If they can stay healthy, the Brooklyn Nets should be favored to come out of the East. I mean, they got Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. That's a killer trio to go up against. The issue though is health: Kevin Durant played in just 32 games this year, James Harden played in 44 games (36 with the Nets), and Kyrie Irving surprisingly played the most out of the bunch at 54. The fact that they still found a way to finish #2 in the East is pretty impressive when you consider the lack of cohesiveness they've had all season. If the Nets can stay healthy, one has to like their odds. If not, it'll likely be the 76ers or some other team. 

One other question mark for the Nets is their defense. Durant, Irving, and Harden are known for their offense, but not their defense. While their defense has been good enough in the regular season, they'll have to step it up a notch come playoff time. It'll be interesting to see if that part comes together for them as well. 

#5. Can the Los Angeles Clippers figure it out? On paper, the Los Angeles Clippers are really dangerous. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form a really good one-two punch and they have plenty of depth with Marcus Morris, Lou Williams, Serge Ibaka, Rajon Rondo, and others. But for whatever reason, these guys finished 4th in the Western Conference and weren't able to have a more productive regular season. It'll be interesting to see if they'll be able to hit the reset button in the playoffs or if they'll once again disappoint. 

#6. Can the Miami Heat recapture the magic from last year? The Miami Heat had a pretty improbable run to the NBA Finals last year and once again, they find the odds stacked against them as they are the #6 seed in the East. It'll be interesting to see if the Heat can find their mojo once again and recapture the Eastern Conference crown as a lower seeded team. So long as Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro stay healthy, they got a shot. 

#7. Can the Phoenix Suns prove that they're for real? The Phoenix Suns find themselves in a similar situation as the Utah Jazz. They have the second best record in the NBA and yet nobody thinks they got much of a shot to go all the way. Chris Paul has had an MVP worthy season (click here for my blog post on that) while Devin Booker (25.6 points per game) is one of the most dangerous scorers in the game. If they weren't in a small market, more people would take them seriously. Just like the Jazz. Hopefully they too will be able to prove their fantastic regular season was no fluke. 

#8. Can Jayson Tatum carry the Boston Celtics past the first round? Without Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics are in a lot of trouble right now and yet they still got a pulse, even if it's very faint. We've seen Jayson Tatum have some big nights and carry the Celtics on his back. Doing that in the playoffs is a different animal, but I think Tatum is eager to find out how far he can push himself. While I do see the Nets winning the series, Tatum could give them more trouble than they bargained for. 

#9. Can the Denver Nuggets make a deep run without Jamal Murray? With Jamal Murray done for the season due to a torn ACL, many people have written the Denver Nuggets off, though the team hasn't exactly gotten the memo. They are third in the West and Nikola Jokic is the front runner to win MVP. It'll be interesting to see just how far Jokic can lead this Nuggets team and whether or not they'll be able to sneak into the Western Conference Finals. Or maybe deeper. 

#10. Are the Milwaukee Bucks still contenders? With Giannis Antetokounmpo, one has to think the Milwaukee Bucks are serious contenders once again. The Greek Freak is averaging 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, doing everything for his team as always. And yet, they took a step back this year, finishing third in the East after having the best record in basketball a year ago. It feels like people are sleeping on this Bucks team when perhaps they shouldn't. It'll be fun to see if the Bucks are able to make some noise and finish the job they should have completed a season ago. 

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Wednesday Windmill: Are the Boston Celtics taking a big risk on Jaylen Brown?

                                          (Credit: John Tlumacki-The Boston Globe) 

Earlier this week, it was announced that the Boston Celtics and fourth-year small forward Jaylen Brown agreed on a four-year, $115M contract extension. The deal was reached after Brown initially turned down a four-year, $80M extension, citing a belief that he could earn more in the open market. Brown's decision to turn down the Celtics' initial offer paid off handsomely for him as he earned another $35M.

While this deal is clearly good for Brown, what's up for debate right now is whether or not this deal is good for the Celtics. They already have Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward signed to max contracts and third-year small forward Jayson Tatum likely demanding a big contract a year from now. They have a logjam at small forward and it stands to reason that they can't keep everyone happy both with how they're getting paid and how they're being used. There's only so many minutes in a game and it's hard to play Hayward, Tatum, and Brown together.

If you look at how Brown has performed over his first three years in the NBA, he's been solid, averaging 11.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 0.8 steals per game. While he still has a lot of room for growth, he has overall backed up the Celtics' decision to draft him third overall in the 2016 NBA draft.

During his freshman year at Cal, I was around Brown a lot thanks to my gig covering Cal basketball for Rivals.com. It was clear from his first game at Cal that he was a supremely gifted athlete and that it was just a matter of time before he would put all the pieces together. While he hasn't put all the pieces together yet, it would be foolish to not think he'll get better. Especially since he's turning 23 tomorrow. He's still very young with a ton of upside.

Given all that, I don't think it's crazy for Brown to get the contract that he did. He keeps getting better and is also a really smart, articulate guy that brings a lot to an organization both on and off the court. The Celtics do have to figure out what to do with Tatum and Hayward as well, but I think if they had to let one of them go, Hayward would be the one. He's the oldest and has already been through a really gruesome injury. The smart move for the Celtics might be to actually move Hayward for more assets and really build around Tatum and Brown. Together, those two could form a really dynamic duo over the next decade. Of course, they could also try to keep all three and see if they can co-exist for the long term. I'm skeptical that they can, but perhaps they'll prove me wrong.

Overall, I do think the Celtics made the right decision in giving Jaylen Brown his money. He's one of the most talented young players in the NBA and provided he continues to grow like he's projected to, they'll get their money's worth. That I'm confident of.

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Wednesday Windmill: Can the Boston Celtics be stopped at home?

Despite being 1-6 on the road, the Boston Celtics are now 10-0 at home in the playoffs after Wednesday night's 96-83 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. After dropping two straight games in Cleveland, the Celtics bounced back like Drake, dominating the Cavaliers from the opening tip. Jayson Tatum led the way for the Celtics with 24 points and 7 rebounds while Jaylen Brown finished with 17 points of his own.

As frustrating as their road woes have been, the Celtics have made the most of their home court advantages in each series, winning every single game in Boston. As a result, they are now just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals with a Game 7 in Boston in their back pocket. With how these playoffs have gone, it is fair to wonder whether or not the Celtics can be stopped on their home floor.

10 years ago, the Celtics experienced a similar kind of situation, winning their first two series' 4-3 before defeating the Detroit Pistons in six games to win the Eastern Conference crown. We've seen this Jekyll and Hyde behavior from them before, but thanks to having home court advantage, they've been able to scrape by. Teams work all season to put themselves in the position to have home court advantage and the Celtics make the most of it, using up nearly every home game they have to advance.

The key to understanding this phenomenon is recognizing how difficult it is to win a road game in Boston. There's something about the place that makes it nearly impossible to get a win. The parquet floor, the retired jerseys, and all the championship banners give Boston an almost magical environment. It's like playing in a living museum. The fans are passionate and they get behind their team like few fan bases do.

                                         (Chad Finn. The Boston Globe) 
                           
When you combine that environment with an exciting young team, you have the recipe for home dominance.  Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Al Horford all feed off of the energy created by their home fans and play their best basketball as a result. Away from home the Celtics are very vulnerable, but at home they're nearly invincible. If anyone had any doubts about how much of an impact their home environment has, those doubts should be erased after what we saw on Wednesday.

The unfortunate reality for LeBron James and the Cavaliers is that if they want to get back to the NBA Finals, they're going to have to win a game in Boston and with the way things are going, the odds of that happening do not look likely. In each of the three games played in Boston during this series, the Celtics have won by an average of 17 points. That's as dominant as you can get.

As much as I want to believe in LeBron James' abilities to will his team back from the dead and beat the odds, it's really hard to ignore these numbers. The Celtics have been lights out at home and until some team cracks the code, they should be favored in every home game they play in these playoffs. Picking against them is not only disrespectful. It's flat out foolish.

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Wednesday Windmill: Without Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics need Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to deliver

On opening night at Cleveland, Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' big free agent acquisition of the summer, went down with a dislocated and fractured left tibia. Hayward underwent surgery on Wednesday and could be done for the season. Given the severity of his injury, the Celtics have to expect the worst and plan on playing the entire season without their star small forward. With this being the grim reality, the question that is on the minds of everyone is whether or not the Celtics can survive the season without him.

Gordon Hayward has a message for Celtics Nation. pic.twitter.com/H6RHeGgios

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) October 18, 2017

On the surface, there's no way to paint a pretty picture of this situation. Hayward averaged a career best 21.9 points per game last season and is just starting to enter his prime. Given how badly the Celtics fared against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, it's hard to see them reaching the NBA Finals with Hayward on the sidelines for the rest of the season.

If the Celtics want any chance of making a run for the Eastern Conference crown, they'll need to get big production from Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, two small forwards who they selected third overall in the 2016 and 2017 NBA drafts respectively. Given that Brown is in his second year and Tatum is a rookie, there will be more expected of Brown this season to deliver the goods, especially in the early portion of the season.

The good news for the Celtics is that so far, both guys, especially Brown, are stepping up in Hayward's absence. On Tuesday night against the Cavaliers, Brown scored 25 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and got 2 steals. On Wednesday night against the Bucks, Brown had 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. As for Tatum, he finished with a double-double against the Cavaliers with 14 points and 10 rebounds while finishing with 8 points and 9 rebounds against the Bucks.

                                         (John Tlumacki. The Boston Globe) 

If both Brown and Tatum continue to produce like this, the Celtics could find a way to make things interesting in the Eastern Conference. As #3 overall picks, they definitely have the talent to do so. It's just a matter of them finding a way to consistently play up to their maximum potential four out of five nights.

While Kyrie Irving and Al Horford are going to have to carry the load as the two experienced stars on the team, the Celtics' season really comes down to how well Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum step up. They'll be getting the bulk of the minutes at the small forward spot and will need to make up for Hayward's absence. If they are able to do so, the Celtics' season isn't lost. If not, we might as well pencil in the Cavaliers as Eastern Conference champions assuming LeBron James doesn't go down.

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