Eastern Conference Playoffs: First Round Predictions

I have now done my Western Conference preview, so now we're heading East!!

#1. Indiana Pacers (56-26) vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

As weak as the Pacers played down the stretch, they still hung on to the #1 seed in the East, which I think saved their season. As far as this series is concerned, I don't see the Hawks giving the Pacers much trouble. If the Hawks had Al Horford, this would be a different story, but then if they had Al Horford, they wouldn't be an 8th seed, either. The Pacers are simply much more talented and deep than the Hawks are. Now with that being said, the Hawks went 2-2 against the Pacers this season, so there is some cause for concern. In their 2 wins over the Pacers, Roy Hibbert stunk up the joint big time. He had 2 points in both games combined. If the Hawks want a chance to take out the Pacers, they need Roy Hibbert to be quiet, and the possibility of that happening isn't terribly low judging by how Hibbert has played recently. But even so, the Hawks' best player right now is Paul Millsap and the Pacers' best player is Paul George. Paul George has the edge over Millsap and then in addition to Hibbert, he has Lance Stephenson and David West to help him out as well. Millsap simply doesn't have that same kind of supporting cast to get the Hawks over the hump in this series. I expect the Pacers to win this series in 5 games.

#2. Miami Heat (54-28) vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats (43-39)

Like the previous series, I don't think this series will be terribly close. On paper, the Bobcats could take 2 games off the Heat since Al Jefferson is playing as well as any big man in NBA, averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per contest. In addition, he has a great point guard to play with in Kemba Walker, who is averaging 17.7 points per game and 6.1 assists per game. However, the reason why they won't win this series is because the Heat have LeBron James, who averages 27.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. LeBron James is the best player on the planet, and no team has an answer for him except the Thunder who have Kevin Durant. The Bobcats have quality players, but nobody who can answer LeBron James. If you want me to further break things down, I can tell you that the Heat have Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Michael Beasley, Chris Andersen to throw at the Bobcats and the Bobcats have Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, and Josh McRoberts. The Heat win the supporting cast battle as well as the battle of stars. I do want to give the Bobcats more respect though. They do defend well and the play of Al Jefferson has been fantastic. But they simply don't have the horses to win this series. I've got the Heat winning this series in 5 games.

#3. Toronto Raptors (48-34) vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets (44-38)

This series is a tough one to call. The Raptors have home court advantage and probably have the more talented team since DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are easily the best two players in this series. However, they are inexperienced and the Nets have more depth and playoff experience on their roster since they have Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Andrei Kirilenko. These two teams split their season series, which further illustrates my point that this series is so hard to call.

What's ultimately going to decide this series in my opinion is how DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry play in crunch time as opposes to the veterans of the Nets. All these games will be close and so what's really going decide this series is whether a star is born in DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Lowry. I'm looking at DeRozan to be the guy here since he leads the team in scoring with 22.7 points per game, but don't be shocked if Lowry takes over instead of DeRozan since he was having an all-star level season all year with his 17.9 points and 7.4 assists per game. Both guys are capable, but will either of them step up is the question. The role players for the Raptors are solid. I expect Greivis Vasquez to be solid at the point guard position and Tyler Hansbrough has playoff experience with the Pacers. He should always be good for a hard foul or two and some rebounds. But the bottom line is this comes down to the play of DeRozan and Lowry. Most people don't know a lot about these guys, but I have full faith in their ability to step up in this series and get the job done. I got the Raptors winning this series in 7 games.

#4. Chicago Bulls (48-34) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (44-38) 

It may come as a surprise to some, but the Wizards did win the season series against the Bulls 2-1, which is why everybody shouldn't exactly pencil in the Bulls as advancing to face the Pacers. The Wizards have a really good back court with John Wall (19.3 points and 8.8 assists per game) and Bradley Beal (17.1 points per game and 3.3 assists per game) that should give the Bulls a lot to handle. And then in the front court, the Wizards have Nene (14.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game) and Marcin Gortat a.k.a. The Polish Hammer (13.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game). With both a solid front court and terrific back court, the Wizards are much better than people realize and they definitely have the horses to knock off the Bulls.

What the Bulls have over the Wizards is playoff experience, better coaching, and better defense. Their front court of Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson also gives them an edge over the Wizards' front court. But their back court is suspect. D.J. Augustin has been ok for them as has Jimmy Butler and Mike Dunleavy, but it doesn't look too good next to Wall and Beal.

What probably hurts the Bulls the most in this series is that they don't have the best player in the series, and that is always a huge factor in every playoff series. The best player in this series is John Wall hands down. He's the one legitimate all-star in this whole series and if he plays like an all-star, the Wizards will win this series. Ultimately, I think he will, which is why I think the Wizards win this series in 6 games.

--Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

The Playoffs Start Now For Miami And Indiana

                                                 (Image from: nba.si.com) 

With the NBA playoffs starting in only a couple of weeks, we are entering the time of year in which regular season games suddenly appear to matter.   I say "appear" only because all games in the regular season matter equally as far as the standings are concerned. It isn't as if winning in April magically is worth two wins whereas a win in November is only worth one win. But it is fair to say that the effect of winning and losing is noticed much more strongly at this time of year. With that in mind, I will address the current state of the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers, two teams which are the clear powerhouses of the Eastern Conference. People try and talk up the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and even the Toronto Raptors and try to convince us that those three teams might make the NBA Finals or at least knock off either the Pacers or the Heat en route to the Eastern Conference Finals. I will try and set the record straight for all of you who are getting confused by this idle chatter.

The Eastern Conference isn't a three horse race, a four horse race, and not a five horse race. It is a two horse race between the Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat, and all the other six teams that will make the Eastern Conference Playoffs are just there for show. None of them have any remote chance of reaching the NBA Finals or even getting past either the Heat or Pacers.  I think that what will likely decide the projected Heat-Pacers series in the Eastern Conference Finals is home court advantage. Since the only way for the Heat and Pacers to affect who gets home court advantage is to win games between now and the end of the regular season, I argue that as far as the Heat and Pacers are concerned, the playoffs start now.

Both of these teams have been struggling as of late. The Heat went 10-8 during the month of March and the Pacers went 8-10, which included a 4 game losing skid, and concluded on a 3 game losing skid which continues as they roll into April. While the Heat are instead on a 3 game winning streak instead of a 3 game losing skid, lets not kid ourselves and ignore the fact that they too have been playing poorly during this past month. The bottom line is that both teams played in the month of March like they didn't care anymore about the regular season, but the irony of it is that this is the time of year that they should be playing their hardest to win games.

As it stands now, both teams are tied in the standings, with the Pacers having played 2 more games than the Heat. That means that the Heat have more games to get things sorted out and the Pacers have fewer games to do so. Which ever team has a better month of April will get the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, which means that the route to the NBA Finals will go through their building. If the Miami Heat get the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, we might as well send them straight to the NBA Finals. I don't see any way that the Indiana Pacers get to the NBA Finals without home court advantage. Especially since they have been playing like absolute garbage during the past month. What's worse is that the Pacers had the home court advantage and booted it away due to what Roy Hibbert calls their own selfishness. That selfishness was manifested the other night when George Hill and Lance Stephenson had to be separated from each other on the bench because they were squabbling over something petty. The only thing at this point that can prevent the Pacers' problems from trickling into their post-season play is if they still hang on and get the #1 seed. If the Pacers get the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, then the Pacers can mentally hit the reset button. They can all give each other a big group hug, sing "Kumbaya" around a campfire, and get over the problems if they get the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They can still feel like they accomplished their goal and have had a successful regular season if they hang on to the top spot. More importantly, they can still feel confident in their ability to reach the NBA Finals and fend off the Heat. Especially since the last time the Heat came into their building, they came out victorious.

In order for the Heat to steal the #1 seed from the Pacers, they are going to need LeBron James to play like the MVP during the month of April. He's so dominant that if he plays like his MVP self, I don't see any way the Pacers hang on to the #1 seed. As for the Pacers, since they don't have that definitive superstar like LeBron James, it's going to have to be a group effort on their part. I know Paul George is their "superstar" and he can play like one in stretches, but his play isn't consistent enough that one can bank on him to play like a superstar every night. Hence, it needs to be a group effort on the Pacers' part. In addition to Paul George playing well, they need Roy Hibbert, David West, George Hill, and Lance Stephenson to all play better. If all those guys play well for the Pacers (which means they get over their problems in the locker room), then the Pacers will have a chance to re-right the ship and reclaim the #1 seed in the East.

                                              (image from: bballbreakdown.com)

As I said in the beginning, the playoffs begin now for both of these teams. Unlike the stat freaks at ESPN who only give the team with home court advantage a 53% chance at winning this projected series, I think the percentages are much higher. What those stats might be tapping into is that getting home court gives one team only a slight advantage over the other, but lets not kid ourselves and act like a slight advantage is nothing. A slight advantage for one team over the other is huge in this series, which is why I think if the Heat get home court advantage the odds of them winning the Eastern Conference Finals is around 85%. As for the Pacers, if they get home court advantage, I put the odds that they win around 60%. Bottom line is if the Heat get home court advantage, they're going back to the NBA Finals. If the Pacers get home court advantage, they have a shot and should be favored. With these numbers in mind, I think it should be obvious that the Pacers and Heat should treat each remaining game in the regular season like it is a playoff game. They'll have no trouble winning their opening round series and only have maybe a little bit of trouble in their second round series. They can use those series' to rest a little bit and catch their breath, but the games that they shouldn't  be taking off and not worrying about are these final few games of the regular season.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

Why It's Terrible For The NBA To Have Such An Appalling Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference in the NBA is about as bad as it has ever been. Sure the Miami Heat (13-3) and the Indiana Pacers (15-1) are playing fantastic basketball, but those are only 2 out of 15 teams who call the Eastern Conference home. Of the remaining 13 teams in the conference, only the 9-9 Atlanta Hawks have a winning percentage of .500 or better, and to make things worse, the entire Atlantic Division is deeply submerged beneath the .500 mark with the 6-9 Toronto Raptors leading the division with a winning percentage of .400. The Eastern Conference has been bad before, but it has been quite a while since it has been this bad. While it is somewhat entertaining in a rather pathetic way to watch the entire Eastern Conference stink so badly, it actually is really bad for the NBA. So bad, that the NBA should consider eliminating conferences and instead send the top 16 teams to the NBA playoffs regardless of conference.

The reason that this is so bad, is because this greatly hurts the NBA's product and competitiveness. What fans want to see is the best possible basketball, and by having such lousy teams all clumped in one geographic region, the NBA's overall competitiveness and marketability is greatly harmed because (a) the best teams don't go to the playoffs and (b) one half of the country is surrounded by lousy basketball, which means fans of east coast teams won't want to watch the NBA. I have felt for quite some time that the NBA ought to flirt with the idea of shaking things up by instead sending the top 16 teams in the NBA to one tournament instead of breaking it up by Eastern and Western Conferences, and after seeing how this season is going, I've become even more convinced that the NBA needs to go this route. I understand the rationale behind having the conferences on the grounds that it makes travel easier, creates more playoff teams across all three NBA timezones, etc. But the NBA needs to at least have some sort of a clause that prevents things from getting this bad or out of whack.

One possible option is for the NBA to say that only division winning teams are guaranteed spots and from there, the remaining ten teams can come from either conference. By switching to a 6 division/10 wildcard format, the NBA could preserve some of its geographic balance while also allowing the best teams to make the playoffs. In this year's case, it may still result in a sub .500 team making the playoffs, but for the most part, at least one team in each division is good enough to be well above the .500 mark. I think this option is an option that the NBA should strongly consider.

The NBA could also provide a clause that says you have to be above .500 to make the playoffs. Such a clause would ensure that all competitive teams in each conference go, but it would prevent the current calamity that is afflicting the Eastern Conference from happening. If one conference can only produce three teams with winning records, than the remaining spots should be awarded to Western Conference teams who can play above the .500 mark. In cases where you don't have 16 teams at .500 or better, you could at least make it so that the top 16 teams in the NBA go.

Whatever the solution is, something like the above mentioned suggestions is better than the NBA not doing anything to fix this problem of having such a horrible Eastern Conference. It's one thing when a conference has maybe one or two teams in the 7 and 8 spot under .500. But when 13 out of 16 teams in the conference are below the .500 mark, something is going horribly wrong. I know it's too late for the NBA to fix the problem this season, but I pray that the NBA will give this issue some serious thought and try to do whatever they possibly can do to prevent such a horrible disaster like this from happening again.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord