2014-15 Northwest Division Preview

My season previews continue to march along. This time I stop at the Northwest Division of the Western Conference, home to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Denver Nuggets.

                                                    Portland Trail Blazers (57)

     The Portland Trail Blazers once again look prime for another competitive season in the Western Conference. The dynamic point guard/power forward duo of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge should be even better this season which means that the Trail Blazers themselves should be better. In addition, due to the injury of Kevin Durant and the impending fall of the Thunder in the regular season standings, I expect the Trail Blazers to step up and win the Northwest Division.
     The only real knock on the Trail Blazers is that they didn't add anybody of significance to their roster. They lost point guard Mo Williams to the Timberwolves and added center Chris Kaman. Kaman still has some gas left in the tank and should be able to give them around 10 points and 6 rebounds per game off the bench, which is solid production for a reserve, but nothing to write home about.
     One player who might be worth keeping an eye on is Allen Crabbe, a second year shooting guard out of the University of California, Berkeley, which is where I go to school. Crabbe was an early second round pick in the 2013 draft and figures to be a key member of this team in the future. If Crabbe has a breakout year of sorts, that would be a huge boost to this Trail Blazers team.
     The Trail Blazers have the making of a team that should win the Northwest Division and clinch home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They might even clinch the #2 seed. Does that mean I think they threaten to reach the NBA Finals?
     Perhaps, but the playoffs is a different ball game. I expect the Thunder to be lurking with a healthy Kevin Durant come playoff time and I would have to pick the Thunder as more likely to come out of the West even if the Trail Blazers had home court advantage over them. Plus, the Spurs are a vastly superior team to the Trail Blazers at this point.
     But with that all being said, that doesn't mean the Trail Blazers won't be dangerous and it doesn't mean they aren't contenders. If I am picking a team to win a division, then I have to consider that team a "contender".

                                                        

                                                 Oklahoma City Thunder (54)
   
     The Oklahoma City Thunder suffered a significant blow when they found out that Kevin Durant would miss the first 8-12 weeks of the regular season with a Jones fracture to his foot. However, the injury to Durant doesn't mean that the Thunder are heading to the cellar or out of the championship picture.
     The main reason why is because they have Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to carry the load until Kevin Durant gets back. Westbrook and Ibaka couldn't carry the load for the full season, but they can do it through Christmastime.
     The biggest question mark I have about this Thunder team is their head coach Scott Brooks. I'm still not convinced he's the guy to lead them to the promised land. The team has been wise to keep him unless they can get a really good replacement for him, but at some point the team does have to consider going in a different direction if they cannot win a championship.
     As good as the Spurs are, the Thunder should be able to compete with them and take them out just by looking at their players. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are arguably the two best players in the entire Western Conference. That means that they should be favored to win every playoff series they have in the Western Conference playoffs.
     Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich out-coached Scott Brooks in the Western Conference Finals last year and that made the difference in the series. The Thunder obviously cannot go out and get Gregg Popovich, but they can go out and try to find a different coach to help close that gap. Avery Johnson, George Karl, Jerry Sloan, and Doug Collins are all available coaches who I think would take up the chance to coach this team if asked.  Lastly, I as I mentioned in my preview of the Trail Blazers, I don't think the Thunder win the Northwest division, but I still think they are the biggest threat to the Spurs in the Western Conference.

                                               Denver Nuggets (41)

     The Denver Nuggets should be improved with the return of JaVale McGee and Danilo Gallinari, but even with them healthy, they will struggle to crack .500. The biggest problem for the Nuggets is that the Western Conference is really deep and they still lack a real definitive star. Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson, and Arron Afflalo are all on the cusp of being the kind of star that the Nuggets need, but I'm not sure any of those three guys gets there this season.
     Arron Afflalo is coming off his best season with the Magic, averaging 18.2 points per game; Ty Lawson is coming off his best season with the Nuggets, averaging 17.6 points and 8.8 assists per game; and Kenneth Faried is also coming off his best season with the Nuggets, averaging 13.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
     The main thing to understand about this Nuggets team is that they are building themselves into a team that will be able to compete in the playoffs, but they won't get there this season. The key thing for their head coach Brian Shaw to do is get them to continue to play unselfishly and as a team. They have the depth and the breadth of talent to give a lot of teams trouble, but they lack a legitimate superstar to take over games in the clutch. If Lawson, Afflalo, or Faried can become a legitimate superstar this season, the Nuggets may be looking at winning around 50 games. But at the moment, I see them as a .500 team.

                                                  Minnesota Timberwolves (36)

     The Minnesota Timberwolves are in for a really interesting and exciting season. They traded Kevin Love to the Cavaliers and got back Andrew Wiggins, Thaddeus Young, and Anthony Bennett who all should form a nice young core to build around for the future. In addition, they drafted Zach LaVine out of UCLA and Glen Robinson III out of Michigan while also picking up Mo Williams. The team itself looks to be promising and certainly capable of entertaining fans across the NBA.
     The most important player on this team in my opinion is Gorgui Dieng since he has the potential to make the Timberwolves forget about Kevin Love for good. As a big man he can score, rebound, and play defense which is Kevin Love's biggest weakness. If he can come close to scoring and rebounding like Kevin Love while also playing fantastic defense, Dieng will be an upgrade from Love in the post.
     The other really important player on this team is Ricky Rubio who is reportedly on the cusp of a 4 year, $52M extension. If he gets that extension, he better produce. He can pass the ball and defend really well, but his shot is still terrible. If he isn't able to score with more regularity and improve his shot, he could end of hurting the Timberwolves and their overall growth as opposed to helping them.
     Overall, I like this Timberwolves team. They have a solid pass first point guard in Ricky Rubio, a budding superstar in Andrew Wiggins, a really nice shooting guard in Kevin Martin, a solid front court with Gorgui Dieng and Nikola Pekovic, and some nice reserves. The problem they have is similar to the Nuggets: The West is really really tough and they are young.
     However, unlike the Nuggets, the Timberwolves have good reason to believe they have a future superstar on their hands in Andrew Wiggins. They just need to be patient and let him develop without expecting too much from him right away.

                                               

                              

                                             Utah Jazz (30) 

    

      The Utah Jazz are also in for an interesting season, but I'm not sure I would call it "exciting". They have a lot of young pieces with Trey Burke at point guard, Dante Exum as a combo guard, Alec Burks at shooting guard, Gordon Hayward at small forward, and Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter in the paint. 

     All of these players are expected to be really good in the future, but right now they are still a work in progress. The concern for the Jazz is that we've been saying this for the last three years, and it's time that these young guys step up. Namely Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Alec Burks. 

     The Jazz front office is doing all they can to put together a competitive team, but now it's time for the players to show that they are worth the investment. Hayward especially has a lot of pressure on him since he signed a lucrative max contract this summer to stay with the team. The Jazz didn't pay him that money to be a role player. They paid him that money to be a leader and a star on this team. 

     Similar expectations are also on Derrick Favors, who many have compared to a young Karl Malone.  So far, he isn't looking like the second coming of the Mailman. He looks like the second coming of Joe Smith, only worse. Smith at least had a couple of really productive seasons in the NBA before becoming an average NBA power forward. Favors is yet to have one. 

     The good news about Favors is that he keeps getting better. He averaged 13.3 points and 8.7 rebounds last season which was an upgrade from the year before in which he averaged 9.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Still, he hasn't yet backed up the hype. He needs to take an even bigger jump this season and average around 18 points and 10 rebounds per game. 

     Utah's rookie head coach Quin Snyder will have his work cut out for him and have his label as a "player development" coach put to the test. He has a lot of interesting pieces to work with, but it isn't at all clear how they should fit together. Look for the Jazz to be improved from last season, but nothing close to being a playoff team. 

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

Northwest Division Preview

      I continue to march through my overall preview of the NBA by previewing the Northwest Division, which is home to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, and Portland Trail Blazers. I will address each team in order of where I see them finishing within the division.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 
      The Thunder are my pick to win the Northwest Division because they have the two best players in the division in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Even with Westbrook being out for the first 4-6 weeks as he heals from his recent knee operation, the Thunder are still clearly the best team in this division. Where the Thunder need to more focus there attention is on the rest of the conference that is outside of the Northwest Division. The Clippers, Warriors, Spurs, and Rockets are the four teams that the Thunder should be primarily concerned with along with the gritty Grizzlies. Where the Westbrook injury comes into play for the Thunder is their seeding. Sure, they will still run away with their division, but will they still be able to get home court advantage throughout the playoffs with Westbrook out the first 4-6 weeks? That remains to be seen and also is highly in question.
      More problematic though is the fact that James Harden is gone and his replacement Kevin Martin is now on the Timberwolves. The Thunder have regressed since their trip to the NBA Finals, rather than improving, and that has to be really alarming for the Thunder and their fans. Even if they were entering the season fully healthy, they'd still be entering the season weaker than they did these past two seasons as a result of the absence of Harden and Martin. The bottom line for the Thunder is that they need to show that the James Harden trade was the right trade to make and that they are going to be better long-term as a result. The way that they can show this (outside of winning the NBA Finals) is if Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant continue to play well together as a dynamic one-two punch along with Serge Ibaka becoming a consistent double-double player. If those things happen, then the Thunder will look like they are on the right track. However, if things between Westbrook and Durant aren't so good, and if Ibaka stagnates rather than take that next step, then the Thunder will have a hell of a lot to worry about as they enter the 2014-15 season.

Denver Nuggets: 
      Even with the loss of Andre Iguodala, I still expect the Nuggets to finish second in the Northwest Division and make the playoffs. There are still a lot of talented players in Denver that will certainly make the Nuggets a tough opponent, especially at home. Look for the additions of Nate Robinson and Randy Foye to give their already solid backcourt of Andre Miller and Ty Lawson a real boost and also look for young power forward Kenneth Faried to continue to develop into one of the better power forwards in the NBA.
      The only real concern for the Nuggets is their lack of having a star, but that same issue was there last season, and that didn't stop them from posting a franchise best 57 wins. Their new head coach Brian Shaw will certainly make sure that they play well as a team and continue to play unselfish basketball, which is something that they did extremely well under George Karl. The team will have some new faces, but the end result should roughly be the same as last season.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 
      The Minnesota Timberwolves' biggest issue last season was staying healthy and stable. With head coach Rick Adelman dealing with his ailing wife and just about every important player on the team getting hurt in one way or the other, last season ended as a dissapointment rather than as a success. However, this season Adelman is not expected to be spending that much time (if any) away from the team, and more importantly, Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are healthy. The loss of swingman Chase Budinger for an indefinite amount of time could certainly be an ominous sign from the basketball gods, but it doesn't necessarily have to be so.
      The bottom line for the Timberwolves is health. If they can stay healthy, they will be in the mix for a playoff spot since on paper their team looks pretty solid with Ricky Rubio at point guard, Kevin Martin at shooting guard, and power forward Kevin Love anchoring the post along with center Nikola Pekovic. The pieces are there in Minnesota to make a nice run at making the playoffs, but will they hold is the question.

Portland Trail Blazers: 
      The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more promising young teams in the NBA with power forward LaMarcus Aldridge playing alongside second year point guard Damian Lillard (last season's rookie of the year). In addtion to those two, they have shooting guard Wes Matthews, point guard Mo Williams (acquired in free agency from the Jazz), and small forward Nicolas Batum, who they nearly lost in free agency to the Timberwolves. The team is still young and relatively inexperienced, but the pieces they have fit really nicely together.
      The key thing to watch for this team is the emergence of Damian Lillard and whether or not he'll take that next step towards being a superstar point guard. Having a former all-star/veteran point guard in Mo Williams ought to tremendously help Lillard take that next step, which means that the Trail Blazers will be an improved team as the rest of their young players continue to grow. As far as the season itself in terms of wins and losses, I see the Trail Blazers finishing slightly above .500, but not in the playoffs. Their division is pretty tough, and the conference itself is even tougher. If these guys were out in the Eastern Conference, we'd be talking about them like we do the Washington Wizards, which is as a possible playoff team. But since they aren't in the Eastern Conference, and instead are in the much better Western Conference, I don't see them coming close to making the playoffs, which may seem disappointing to the Trail Blazers, but it in no ways means that the team itself isn't getting better. The fact of the matter is that the Trail Blazers are getting better and they know who they want to build their franchise around. Plenty of teams would love to trade places with the Trail Blazers and have the present situation they have of trying to develop one of the best young point guards and power forwards in the game.

Utah Jazz: 
      Sometimes you gotta get worse before you can get better, and that's what the Utah Jazz have done. Rather than having a team that might make the playoffs with Mo Williams, Paul Millsap, and Al Jefferson as its leaders, the Jazz have instead decided to get rid of all those guys and instead give the keys of the car to their young core of Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, and rookie Trey Burke. What the Jazz hope is that Favors and Kanter are future all-star big men,  Hayward and Burks are future all-star swingmen, and Trey Burke is the next great young point guard in the NBA.
      They are of course making those players the starters at the expense of a playoff berth this season, and likely for the next couple of seasons. The Jazz want to win a championship, not be a mid-pack team, which is admirable. However, it isn't guaranteed that they will eventually turn into a contender just because they hope so. They're going to have to see improvement in all five of those young players this season in order to feel good about the move that they have made.
     If you are a Jazz fan, what you want to look for is improvement and player development. Ty Corbin knows that as head coach he's getting paid to develop quality talent as much as he is getting paid to win basketball games. The Jazz are going to be awful in the win-loss column this season, which means that the only victories that the Jazz can take are moral ones such as Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter getting double-doubles, etc. If their young core improves a lot over the course of the season, then the Jazz will have had a good season regardless of what their record is. However, if their young core doesn't improve much, then there will be more cause for concern since the whole plan is that this young core will get better as a result of more time freed up by the absence of Mo Williams, Paul Millsap, and Al Jefferson.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord