Saturday Slam: Can the Denver Nuggets repeat in 2024?

 

                                                  (Credit: AP Photo/Ashley Landis) 

Earlier this summer, the Denver Nuggets won their first ever NBA championship, defeating the Miami Heat in five games. Nikola Jokic was named NBA Finals MVP, capping off a dominating season in which the Nuggets finished with the third best record in the NBA and best record in the Western Conference (53-29). 

While the Nuggets are still basking in their championship glory (as they should), it's never too early to ask whether or not this franchise has what it takes to repeat in 2024. Repeating as NBA champions is never easy, though in the NBA it's certainly a lot more doable than in the other major professional sports. Whenever an NBA team wins a championship, provided the team doesn't completely blow up like the Chicago Bulls did after the 1997-98 season, they have to be considered strong contenders to run it back. 

And building off that, unlike that Bulls team, this Nuggets team projects to have all their key pieces back for next season: Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter, Jr., and basically every other key contributor on their team is under contract for next season and beyond. That's important because we already know what this Nuggets team more or less will look like come opening night to start the 2023-24 season. 

On top of having all their key pieces back, what I think really bodes well for the Nuggets' chances to repeat is the simple fact that each season they keep getting better. They go deeper and deeper in the playoffs. Sometimes you find out a team has peaked and can't get any better. This Nuggets team isn't like that. They've now gone the distance and knowing they have what it takes, they should be even more confident next season. 

Finally, they just have so much depth. Jokic and Murray are a fantastic duo, Jokic playing like the best player on the planet, but in addition, they have really good pieces around them. They share the ball, play unselfishly, and play basketball the right way. They're a team that can win games even when one of their top two players is having an off night. 

While it's no guarantee the Nuggets will repeat in 2024, if we are just talking about their odds, they should definitely be the odds on favorite to win it all next year. After years of knocking on the door with no cigar, the Nuggets are now on top of the NBA and could stay on top for a while longer. 

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Middle Kingdom Monday: Zhejiang Golden Bulls in driver's seat to win 2023 CBA title

 

With the MarShon Brooks-led Guangdong Southern Tigers eliminated from the playoffs, the Zhejiang Golden Bulls are now in the driver's seat to win the 2022-23 CBA title. The Southern Tigers got eliminated by the Zhejiang Guangsha Lions in the quarterfinals, losing their series 2-1. The Southern Tigers were the number two seed in the CBA behind the top seeded Golden Bulls, so them getting knocked out is huge for the Golden Bulls. The Golden Bulls now find themselves in the semifinals against the Shenzhen Leopards, who are the 4th seed in the CBA playoffs. On the other side of the draw are the Zhejiang Guangsha Lions and the Liaoning Flying Leopards. 

For those that are curious, the first two playoff rounds, the first being a wild card round of sorts, are best-of-three. The semifinals are best-of-five and the finals are best-of-seven. So things get taken up a notch with this upcoming semifinal round, which begins later on this week. 

The Golden Bulls dominated the regular season, going 35-7 and in the quarterfinals against the Guangzhou Long-Lions, they won the series 2-0, winning game one 114-91 and winning game two 113-100. So, they really haven't had much competition all season long. 

The Golden Bulls are led by shooting guard Jamar Gulley (17.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, & 2.6 steals), combo guard Qian Wu (17.0 points, 6.0 assists, & 1.8 steals), and power forward Zeyi Liu (15.1 points & 7.6 rebounds). As a trio, they are really balanced, capable of scoring inside and out while also being able to facilitate and crash the glass. Their quality combination of guard play and post play is why they have had such a strong season and are in the position that they are in. 

During the playoffs, all three of them have stepped up their game: Gulley averaging 22.5 points and 10.5 rebounds, Wu averaging 22.0 points and 8.5 assists, and Liu averaging 16.5 points and 9.0 rebounds. If they can keep up that intensity and quality of play in the semifinals, one has to like their odds to reach the finals. And if they reach the finals, they of course are going to be the favorites. 

While anything can happen in playoff basketball, I would be surprised if the Golden Bulls do not win the CBA title this year. They've just been on such a roll all season long. They started the season 15-0 and really haven't looked back. It'll be fun to see if they can complete their championship quest and whether or not they get a serious push in the semifinals by the Shenzhen Leopards. 

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Middle Kingdom Monday: MarShon Brooks has Guangdong Southern Tigers chasing 12th CBA title

 

                                             (Credit: XINHUA/today.line.me) 

A new segment coming to this blog is "Middle Kingdom Monday", which will take a look at what's happening around the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA). I've been studying Chinese for 5+ years now and figured I would use this blog as a chance for me to share my thoughts into the CBA as well as Chinese culture! The opening Middle Kingdom Monday piece looks at what former Brooklyn Nets guard MarShon Brooks is doing for the Guangdong Southern Tigers (广东宏远华南虎). 

The 30-8 Southern Tigers are currently tied for 2nd in the CBA along with the Liaoning Flying Leopards and only have four games left. They're going to get a top four seed in the playoffs (12 teams), which means they have punched their ticket to the quarterfinals of the CBA playoffs. They are once again a serious championship contender. 

A major reason for why the Southern Tigers are chasing a 12th CBA title is the stellar play of MarShon Brooks, who is averaging 24.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. Brooks is leading the Southern Tigers in points, rebounds, and assists, really doing it all for them. 

Brooks does have a solid supporting cast around him with five other players scoring in double figures on average with the leaders of that group (Yi Jianlian & Jie Xu) averaging 11.3 points per game. The combination of Brooks' great all-around play and the supporting cast that he does have, make this Southern Tigers team really dangerous. 

But make no mistake, this is Brooks' team. He's had 13 30+ point games this season and two 40+ point games. He's really balling out and has no trouble taking over games. In those 13 games, the Southern Tigers are 11-2. When he heats up, they're really tough to stop. 

As far as where things sit schedule-wise, the Southern Tigers have won three games in a row on the road at the Guangzhou Long Lions as well as at home against the Jiangsu Dragons and Ningbo Rockets. Of that group, only the Long Lions will be a playoff team as they are the 12th and final team to make the playoffs. 

The Southern Tigers' remaining games are at the Shanghai Sharks, at the Shenzhen Leopards, home against the Shandong High-Speed Kirin, and home against the Xinjiang Flying Tigers. The Sharks are currently 5th, the Leopards are 4th, the High-Speed Kirin are 8th, and the Flying Tigers are 18th. 

The good news for the Southern Tigers as was mentioned earlier is that they have a top four seed in the playoffs locked up. They know they're going to the quarterfinals and just have to wait and see who will be left standing among the teams seeded 5th through 12th. 

At the same time, they don't want to just sit idly by and let the Flying Leopards take the 2nd seed. If they can, it would be great if they could clinch the 2nd seed and give themselves as good of a position as possible come playoff time. Plus, they're finishing out the season against some pretty good teams, so that should help keep them sharp for the playoffs. 

In terms of what the Southern Tigers' CBA championship odds are, I like their chances if Brooks can be his 30+ point self come playoff time. The Zhejiang Golden Bulls, the top seed, have more balance at the top and don't rely as much on one guy, but they also don't appear to have anyone as good as Brooks. Their top player Jamar Gulley (18.1 points) is playing well, but I would take Brooks over him any day of the week. It'll be fun to see how Brooks does in the playoffs and whether not he'll be able to guide the Southern Tigers to their 12th title. If he does, he better get treated to some free Dim Sum (点心), which is a classic dish of the Guangdong province. 

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Saturday Slam: Minnesota Timberwolves have new life thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns returning

 

                                             (Credit: AP Photo) 

On Wednesday, the Minnesota Timberwolves got a real shot in the arm thanks to the return of their star center Karl-Anthony Towns, who put up 22 points and 4 rebounds in a 125-124 victory over the Atlanta Hawks.  It was Towns' first game back from a Grade 3 calf strain, which caused him to be out since late November. 

Towns along with Anthony Edwards (24.7 points per game) is one of the top two players on this Timberwolves team, who are currently 7th in the Western Conference with a 37-37 record. At just 1.5 games back of the 39-36 Golden State Warriors for the 6th seed and eight games left in the regular season, the Timberwolves have to feel like there's a chance to leapfrog the Warriors. Especially if they can defeat them on the road on Sunday. 

Given how important Towns is to the Timberwolves, one cannot understate the importance of his return. He's averaging 20.8 points and 8.0 rebounds per game this season and really takes a lot of pressure off Edwards who does so much for them. 

At this point, the biggest focus for the Timberwolves is to make sure Towns doesn't get overworked during this stretch while also making sure they can get Edwards back as soon as possible. Edwards has missed three straight games due to an ankle injury and it really is imperative that they get him back, too. 

As far as what the final schedule looks like, after Sunday's game at Golden State, the Timberwolves will head to Sacramento and Phoenix before coming home to face the Lakers and Trailblazers. They will then hit the road to Brooklyn and San Antonio before coming home for one final game against the Pelicans. It's not a super easy schedule, but it's also not ridiculously hard, either.  

While the future is not certain, one thing that is certain is that the Timberwolves' odds of avoiding the play-in tournament and getting a top six seed have gone up by getting Towns back. If you're them, that's really all you can ask for. 

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Tomahawk Tuesday: Are the Sacramento Kings championship contenders?

 

                                             (Credit: Kelley L. Cox/USA TODAY Sports) 

One of the feel good stories of this year's NBA season is the rise of the Sacramento Kings, who are currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a 40-27 record. Point guard De'Aaron Fox (25.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, & 6.3 assists) and power forward Domantas Sabonis (19.0 points, 12.4 rebounds, & 7.1 assists) are forming a really good one-two punch for this Kings team, doing nice job of scoring, facilitating, and rebounding. Both were named All-Stars this season and deservedly so. 

After years of trying to find the right formula and bring in the right pieces, first year head coach Mike Brown and the Kings seem to have finally figured it out and given the youth that is on their team, they appear to be a team that isn't going anywhere anytime soon. If there's any fanbase that has been patiently waiting for this kind of turnaround, it's Kings fans. They've watched a lot of subpar/frustrating basketball over the years, so you know they're happy to see their team finally come together like this. 

Looking at their team stats, where the Kings really are kicking butt is with their shooting percentages. They are second in the NBA with a 49.9% field goal percentage, ninth in the league with a 37.1% 3-point shooting percentage, and also ninth in the league with a 79.8% free throw shooting percentage. They're shooting very efficiently both inside and out, making them a tough team for opposing defenses to stop. 

As far as what's most accounted for the Kings' leap, I would say it's the addition of Sabonis, who they acquired from the Indiana Pacers around the trade deadline in 2022. Fox's production has actually been pretty consistent these past three seasons, but he needed someone to be the Robin to his Batman and Sabonis has been a perfect Robin. By having someone to help take the pressure off of him and be an effective presence in the post at an All-Star level, Fox finally has the kind of team around him that he needs. 

As far as whether or not the Kings are championship contenders, the main reason to think not is the fact that they haven't been to the playoffs since the 2005-06 season when they lost in the first round. That's back when Rick Adelman was still the head coach. His final season at the helm. Teams rarely win NBA championships in their first trip back to the playoffs and usually they have to go through some sort of growing pains by losing in the conference semis or something. 

That all said, they are on track to get a high seed in the playoffs and they historically have a great home court advantage in the playoffs. If they are able to hang on to their top three seed, I'd say I like their chances to win their first round series and then from there, we just gotta see how things shake out. But regardless, it's clear that this team is building something legit and that if they stay on their present course, we very well may see them reach the NBA Finals very soon even if it isn't this season. 

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Saturday Slam: The Los Angeles Lakers probably wish they could tank this season

 

                                             (Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn/USA TODAY Sports) 

The Los Angeles Lakers are 0-5 with road losses to the Warriors, Nuggets, and Timberwolves and home losses to the Clippers and Trail Blazers. LeBron James is averaging 25.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.6 steals per game while Anthony Davis is doing his part with 24.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. However, the rest of the team is pretty weak. Lonnie Walker IV is averaging 13.4 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field, which isn't bad, but Russell Westbrook is really stinking it up, averaging 12.3 points per game on an absolutely horrible 30.9% shooting from the field. It's just bad. Like really bad. 

And then after Westbrook, there just isn't much. Westbrook was supposed to be the third part of a "Big Three" and he's far from fulfilling that role. He's weighing them down like a really big paper weight. 

The easy answer to this problem of course is to trade Westbrook. But he's turning 34 in a few days and he has a contract paying him $47M this season. Nobody, even in today's NBA, will want to take on that contract. He'll also be an unrestricted free agent next season, so teams will be able to pick him up for a lot less money assuming he continues to build a house of bricks in Los Angeles. 

The Lakers are in a bind. Trading Westbrook is a long long put and yet so long as they have him, they're going to continue to struggle. If they had a lottery first round pick available for next season, they could at least entertain the possibility of tanking for this season. Letting Westbrook brick their way into the NBA draft lottery where they could get a high pick and use that piece to build around for the future. 

But given all these win-now moves that they've made, the Lakers don't have that option. If they were to win the NBA draft lottery after the season, the pick would go to the New Orleans Pelicans, who as part of the Anthony Davis trade, have the rights to swap first round picks with the Lakers in 2023. So that option, as attractive as it looks right now, is off the table for them. 

If the Lakers do want to turn this around, they need to do so like now. They have a home stand starting Sunday that begins with the Nuggets followed by the Pelicans, Jazz, and Cavaliers before making a return trip to Utah to face the Jazz. This upcoming home stand is crucial. They need to at least post a .500 record on this home stand (2-2) to stay afloat. If they go 1-3 or heaven forbid 0-4, they could be looking at a really really bad season without having any of the benefits of tanking. It can't get any more brutal than that. 

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Tomahawk Tuesday: What are the odds we see a Warriors-Celtics NBA Finals rematch?

 

                                             (Credit: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports) 

The NBA regular season tips off tonight with both NBA Finals teams playing, though not against each other. The Boston Celtics squared off against the Philadelphia 76ers while the Golden State Warriors faced the Los Angeles Lakers. The NBA obviously wanting to feature both of their NBA Finals teams on opening night. In this blog post, I want to address the possibility that we see a rematch of last year's NBA Finals with the Warriors and Celtics facing each other for a second straight year. 

What helps to boost the odds of both teams facing off is the fact that they have their core rosters back. The Warriors with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. The Celtics with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford. When you bring back a core group that got to the NBA Finals the season before, your odds of getting back are as good as they can get. 

The second thing that helps boost the odds is that the Warriors in particular have been through this rodeo many times before. They've represented the Western Conference in six of the last eight NBA Finals and won four of those six trips. They know what it takes to get back to the NBA Finals. For the Celtics, this is a new journey for them. Whether or not they have what it takes to get back for a second straight year remains to be seen, but if you look at the way things are trending, there's good reason to think they can get back again. 

Aside from injuries, which is always the biggest hurdle to teams getting back to the NBA Finals, probably the biggest hurdle/reason for doubt is the chaos that has surrounded the departure of Celtics head coach Ime Udoka. He was having an improper relationship with a member of the Celtics organization. Whether or not Joe Mazzulla can fill in and guide the Celtics back to the NBA Finals is a big question mark for the Celtics right now. If he can, odds are good Udoka's time in Boston is over. 

On the Warriors side, probably their biggest hurdle is just father time. Curry, Thompson, and Green are all getting older. It's tough to keep playing in June year in and year out and it's possible this last championship was more of a final second wind for the group. But, if there's any group that could navigate this, it's the Warriors. Head coach Steve Kerr does a good job of resting his guys and keeping the eye on the prize. They also have some talented young players who can fill in and take the load off until playoff time. 

Ultimately, if I had to bet on it, I would say we likely won't see both teams back in the NBA Finals in 2023 only because it's just so hard to get back. The Warriors are getting older and it's unclear if they can handle the grind once more while with the Celtics, it's unclear if Mazzulla can get the job done. That said, it wouldn't shock me if we saw a rematch, either. The Warriors do have a lot of experience and the Celtics having now gotten a taste of the NBA Finals are going to be more seasoned and experienced. It'll certainly be fun to see how both teams do and which team does better at getting back for a second straight year. 

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