NBA Lord's NBA Blog

NBA Lord's NBA Blog

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Saturday Slam: 10 things to look for in the 2021 NBA Playoffs

 

                                                (Credit: NBA.com) 

The 2021 NBA Playoffs are now here. After a fun and exciting play-in tournament, the bracket is fully filled in. Out West, the #1 overall seeded Utah Jazz will take on the #8 Memphis Grizzlies, the #2 Phoenix Suns will take on the #7 Los Angeles Lakers, the #3 Denver Nuggets will face the #6 Portland Trail Blazers, and the #4 Los Angeles Clippers will face the #5 Dallas Mavericks. In the East, the #1 Philadelphia 76ers will face the #8 Washington Wizards, the #2 Brooklyn Nets will face the #7 Boston Celtics, the #3 Milwaukee Bucks will face the #6 Miami Heat, and the #4 New York Knicks will face the #5 Atlanta Hawks. Action will start on Saturday. 

I'm starting something new this year by writing 10 things to look for in the NBA playoffs. I've done this over at my tennis blog ATPGuy.com (click here to check that out) to preview grand slams and I think it's been a pretty effective type of blog post. So now I'm going to start doing it for the NBA playoffs as well! Enjoy! 

#1. Can the Utah Jazz silence the haters? Despite having the best record in the NBA, the Utah Jazz still have plenty of doubters and haters. Part of this has to do with the fact that the Jazz have never won an NBA championship and also the fact that relative to other superstars, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert kinda fly under the radar. This is in part because they play in Utah but also because a big reason for the Jazz' success is the fact that they don't overly rely on Mitchell and Gobert. This is why they were able to hang onto the best record in the NBA despite Mitchell being out for approximately one month due to an ankle injury. 

While they lack the star power that most top seeds usually have, the Jazz do make it up with their depth and unselfishness. They know how to play as a team and how to play off each other's strengths to maximize what they have. 

Donovan Mitchell has been averaging 26.4 points, 5.2 assists, and 1.0 steals per game on the season, so by no means can they win the title without him. They absolutely need him healthy. If he's able to go with little issues, the Jazz could shock the world and win the NBA title. They play basketball the right way, have a great home court advantage, and I also think they're motivated by the fact that everyone is counting them out. 

Note: I also shared this on my Utah Jazz blog. Click here to check that out if you are a Jazz fan. 

#2. Can the Philadelphia 76ers back up their #1 seed out East? I feel like the 76ers have more respect than the Jazz because of the presence of Joel Embiid (28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks), but they too have a lot to prove. They haven't been to the NBA Finals since the 2000-01 season in which Allen Iverson disrespected Tyronn Lue in Game 1 and in general, have found ways to fold in the playoffs over the years. 

Given that Joel Embiid is considered by many to be the best player in the game right now, one can actually argue there's even more pressure on the 76ers than the Jazz. The good news for the 76ers is their draw is pretty friendly. They get the Wizards in round one and then the winner of the Knicks/Hawks series in round two. There's no reason the 76ers shouldn't at least reach the Eastern Conference Finals and in that series, they would have home court advantage. So, count me in as picking the 76ers to win the East. I do think if they faced off against the Brooklyn Nets, they'd find a way to pull it out. Assuming everyone stays healthy of course. 

#3. Can LeBron James will the Los Angeles Lakers to the championship again? The Lakers do not have any easy path to the NBA Finals at all. They are the #7 seed and have to face a very difficult Phoenix Suns team in round one. Even if they win that series, they'd still have to go through the Nuggets and Jazz assuming the brackets hold to get back to the NBA Finals. 

Honestly, I think the Lakers should feel reasonably confident in their abilities to go the distance since they won it all last year and also the fact that the only reason they're seeded so low is because LeBron took a lot of time off to rest his ankle. With everyone now back, they should feel ready to rock and roll. 

As for the part about LeBron willing them specifically, I do think LeBron will need to get a little help from his friends. Namely Anthony Davis, who is the #2 option on this team. LeBron will need to play a big role of course, but he can't do it all by himself. It'll take a team effort like it did last year. 

#4. Can the Brooklyn Nets stay healthy? If they can stay healthy, the Brooklyn Nets should be favored to come out of the East. I mean, they got Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. That's a killer trio to go up against. The issue though is health: Kevin Durant played in just 32 games this year, James Harden played in 44 games (36 with the Nets), and Kyrie Irving surprisingly played the most out of the bunch at 54. The fact that they still found a way to finish #2 in the East is pretty impressive when you consider the lack of cohesiveness they've had all season. If the Nets can stay healthy, one has to like their odds. If not, it'll likely be the 76ers or some other team. 

One other question mark for the Nets is their defense. Durant, Irving, and Harden are known for their offense, but not their defense. While their defense has been good enough in the regular season, they'll have to step it up a notch come playoff time. It'll be interesting to see if that part comes together for them as well. 

#5. Can the Los Angeles Clippers figure it out? On paper, the Los Angeles Clippers are really dangerous. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form a really good one-two punch and they have plenty of depth with Marcus Morris, Lou Williams, Serge Ibaka, Rajon Rondo, and others. But for whatever reason, these guys finished 4th in the Western Conference and weren't able to have a more productive regular season. It'll be interesting to see if they'll be able to hit the reset button in the playoffs or if they'll once again disappoint. 

#6. Can the Miami Heat recapture the magic from last year? The Miami Heat had a pretty improbable run to the NBA Finals last year and once again, they find the odds stacked against them as they are the #6 seed in the East. It'll be interesting to see if the Heat can find their mojo once again and recapture the Eastern Conference crown as a lower seeded team. So long as Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro stay healthy, they got a shot. 

#7. Can the Phoenix Suns prove that they're for real? The Phoenix Suns find themselves in a similar situation as the Utah Jazz. They have the second best record in the NBA and yet nobody thinks they got much of a shot to go all the way. Chris Paul has had an MVP worthy season (click here for my blog post on that) while Devin Booker (25.6 points per game) is one of the most dangerous scorers in the game. If they weren't in a small market, more people would take them seriously. Just like the Jazz. Hopefully they too will be able to prove their fantastic regular season was no fluke. 

#8. Can Jayson Tatum carry the Boston Celtics past the first round? Without Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics are in a lot of trouble right now and yet they still got a pulse, even if it's very faint. We've seen Jayson Tatum have some big nights and carry the Celtics on his back. Doing that in the playoffs is a different animal, but I think Tatum is eager to find out how far he can push himself. While I do see the Nets winning the series, Tatum could give them more trouble than they bargained for. 

#9. Can the Denver Nuggets make a deep run without Jamal Murray? With Jamal Murray done for the season due to a torn ACL, many people have written the Denver Nuggets off, though the team hasn't exactly gotten the memo. They are third in the West and Nikola Jokic is the front runner to win MVP. It'll be interesting to see just how far Jokic can lead this Nuggets team and whether or not they'll be able to sneak into the Western Conference Finals. Or maybe deeper. 

#10. Are the Milwaukee Bucks still contenders? With Giannis Antetokounmpo, one has to think the Milwaukee Bucks are serious contenders once again. The Greek Freak is averaging 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, doing everything for his team as always. And yet, they took a step back this year, finishing third in the East after having the best record in basketball a year ago. It feels like people are sleeping on this Bucks team when perhaps they shouldn't. It'll be fun to see if the Bucks are able to make some noise and finish the job they should have completed a season ago. 

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Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Tomahawk Tuesday: Should Phoenix Suns' Chris Paul win MVP?

                                             (Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports) 


Last season, the Phoenix Suns finished 10th in the Western Conference with a 34-39 record, just good enough to make the cutoff for the NBA bubble, where they went 8-0. One year later, the Suns are now 48-20, 1.5 games back of the Utah Jazz for best record in the NBA. When looking at the Suns' offseason, the one move that clearly stands out is their acquisition of Chris Paul via trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Paul is having a fabulous season doing what he always does: Making those around him better. Paul is averaging 16.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game on 49.2% shooting from the field, 39.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 93.1% shooting from the foul line. He's having a very efficient season and appears to be just what the doctor ordered for the Suns in terms of elevating them into contender status. 

Truth be told, nobody saw the acquisition of Paul paying off like this for the Suns. I think most were in agreement that he'd certainly make them better, but second-best record in the NBA? Nobody saw that coming. 

As far as his MVP candidacy is concerned, I think a really strong case can be made for Paul. The MVP historically has been a combination of both team and individual achievement. The formula is basically as follows: Team success + perceived impact on that team success= MVP. If you want to make the formula a little fancier, you can subtract pre-season expectations of the team. 

That is to say, if everyone thought your team was going to be really good anyways, that doesn't help your case as much. Whereas if everyone thought your team was going to suck and they don't, that helps your case. The higher the expectations, the more it takes away from your MVP candidacy. I hope that math all makes sense! 

In the case of Paul, when using that formula to calculate his MVP odds, the end results end up looking pretty good for him. The Suns didn't have super high expectations going into the season, they ended up crushing those expectations by flirting with the best record in the NBA, and Paul has clearly played a big hand in their success. That all adds up to a strong MVP case. 

Does that mean he'll win it? Not necessarily. Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic is the consensus front runner for how he's kept his team afloat during the absence of Jamal Murray. When Murray went down, everyone assumed the Nuggets' goose was cooked. Instead, they are 45-24, just 3.5 games back of the Suns. Jokic has been a major reason for why the Nuggets are at where they are at, making his MVP candidacy quite strong as well. 

Ultimately, I would love to see Paul win the award. Just because he has really paid his dues and historically, he doesn't get enough respect. When talking about the best point guards in NBA history, Paul too often gets overlooked. Part of that is his consistency and commitment to his team. He doesn't create any drama and he's always just out there doing his thing. Guys like that are easy to cheer for and deserving of whatever awards come their way. 

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