(Credit: Kevin Jairaj, USA TODAY Sports)
The NBA more than any other pro sports league values home court/field advantage. But in this year's first round Western Conference series between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, home court advantage has become home court disadvantage as the road team has won the first six games. This is the first time this has happened in NBA playoff history. Game 7 will be on Sunday in Los Angeles, which I guess means the Mavericks should be favored. In this blog post, I want to quickly analyze what has happened in this series and what we can expect to happen on Sunday.
The Mavericks won Game 1 113-103 in Los Angeles behind 31 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists from Luka Doncic. 21 points from Tim Hardaway, Jr. and 18 points from Dorian Finney-Smith, both of whom also start, made a difference as well as 15 points off the bench from Jalen Brunson. For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard (26 points) and Paul George (23 points) stepped up, but they didn't get enough help. As a team, the Mavericks made 17 three-pointers, while the Clippers made 11. That seemed to make a pretty big difference in the game.
Going on to Game 2, the Mavericks once again won, though this time it was closer (127-121). Doncic exploded for 39 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists while Hardaway, Jr. (28 points & 5 assists) and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points) had big nights as well. For the Clippers, it was more of the same: A huge night from Leonard (41 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals) and a double-double from George (28 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists) while not getting much help from anyone else. 18 made threes from the Mavericks and 13 made threes from the Clippers made a difference similar to Game 1.
Game 3 went the Clippers' way as the series shifted to Dallas by a final score of 118-108. The Clippers got down 30-11 in the first quarter, but found a way to bounce back. I had pronounced them dead, but they proved me wrong.
Leonard (36 points) and George (29 points) once again had big nights, but this time it was the role guys that stepped up. Reggie Jackson's 16 points and Marcus Morris' 15 points were just what the doctor ordered. Meanwhile for the Mavericks, it was basically Luka Doncic going wild with 44 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists without much from anyone else.
The Mavericks' three-point shooting was hot again as they made 20 threes, to the Clippers' 13, so in that vein it's a little odd they didn't win Game 3. But, the Clippers did outbound them 39-33 and also shot 57.9% from the field compared to the Mavericks' 44.2%, so three-point shooting obviously isn't everything in this series.
In Game 4, the Clippers won big 106-81 to tie the series up 2-2. Leonard's 29 points and George's 20 points led the way. Doncic had a quiet 19 points and he was the top scorer for the Mavericks. So, this game wasn't really all that competitive.
In Game 5, the Mavericks stole back home court, winning by a final score of 105-100. Doncic exploded for 42 points, 8 rebounds, and 14 assists while Hardaway, Jr. chipped in 20 points. Leonard didn't have his best outing as he had 20 points. George was the top performer with his 23 points and 10 rebounds. Jackson (20 points) and Morris (16 points) played pretty well, but Leonard having an off-night relative to his standards did the Clippers in.
In Game 6, the Clippers won 104-97 to force a Game 7 as Leonard really took the team on his back with 45 points and 6 rebounds, his best performance of the series. George also had a nice night with 20 points and 13 rebounds while Jackson had a series high 25 points. As for the Mavericks, Doncic had 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 assists, which is very good performance while Hardaway, Jr. had 23 points. The problem for the Mavericks is nobody else really stepped up.
So, that's where things sit as we head into Sunday's series deciding Game 7. As far as what we can learn from the first six games, it's clear that star power is key. When Kawhi Leonard goes off and is the best player in the game, the Clippers win. When Luka Doncic is the top performer and goes off, the Mavericks win. It also seems like when those guys get going for their respective teams, their teammates feed off that and play better as a result.
What does help Leonard is the presence of George, who for the most part has been a pretty reliable number two option. Doncic doesn't have that same number two guy who he can consistently depend on, but if there were to be such a guy on the Mavericks, it would be Hardaway, Jr. who has played pretty well this series.
As far as my prediction is concerned, obviously anything can happen in a Game 7 and we are in uncharted waters here as it's the first Game 7 in NBA playoffs history where the road team has won every game in the series. So, it's hard to just pick the Clippers to win Game 7 because they are at home.
That said, I do think the Clippers will win Game 7. Not because they are at home but because they are the slightly better team. If Leonard can go wild and George does his regular thing, that should be enough for the Clippers to win provided they get decent support from their role players. Doncic has to do more for his team and I think that's starting to wear on him a bit as the series goes on. But once again, anything can happen. The Mavericks winning certainly wouldn't surprise me. It's going to be fun to see how this one plays out!
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