(Credit: clutchpoints.com)
The 2021 NBA Finals begins on Tuesday and will feature a matchup that nobody on earth predicted at the start of the season: Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks. It's been a crazy journey for both of these teams to reach this point. Starting with the Suns, they took out the Lakers, Nuggets, and then Clippers to win the Western Conference crown. The Lakers were hobbled due to Anthony Davis not being at full strength, making them a vulnerable opponent. The Nuggets were without their star Jamal Murray, but they did have 2021 NBA MVP Nikola Jokic on their side. Jokic just wasn't able to do it all on his own in the end. As for the Clippers, Paul George and co. put up a real fight, but the absence of Kawhi Leonard also proved to be too much.
As for the Bucks, they went through the Heat, Nets, and Hawks. The Heat were led by Jimmy Butler like last year, but they weren't able to recapture the magic they had in the bubble a year ago. The Nets had injury issues of their own with Kyrie Irving and James Harden missing some time. Kevin Durant played incredible basketball, but once again, it's a team sport and one man can't do it all on his own. As for the Hawks, they played really well as a team and had Trae Young not gotten injured, they might have reached the NBA Finals.
The commonality in both the Western Conference and Eastern Conference brackets is that injuries played a big role in how things turned out. However, that isn't to say that the Suns and Bucks didn't have injury issues of their own. The Suns had to deal with Chris Paul missing action due to COVID protocols and Devin Booker had a busted nose. As for the Bucks, they've been without Giannis Antetokounmpo for the last two games due to a hyperextended knee and while there is no structural damage to his knee, it is unclear when he'll be back. Hopefully for Tuesday's Game 1.
Ultimately, when looking at this upcoming Suns/Bucks series, a lot hinges on the health of Antetokounmpo. If he's healthy, the Bucks have a real shot to knock off the Suns due to their depth, length, and 3-point shooting. Khris Middleton has been a really nice number two option for them, shooting it well from the perimeter and giving Giannis the help that he needs. On top of that, veteran big man Brook Lopez and veteran guard Jrue Holiday have been playing well. The pieces around Antetokounmpo are definitely there. But he has to be present.
As for the Suns, they appear to be pretty healthy right now. Paul is back from his COVID hiatus and while having a busted nose isn't fun, Booker hasn't been affected much by it. He also seems to pretty much be back from the injury anyways. Big man Deandre Ayton is getting it done inside (E.g. Valley-oop) and is giving the Suns the interior presence that they need.
At this point, I do have to give the Suns the edge to win this series. They're the healthier team at the moment and they do have home court advantage. The NBA championship goes through Phoenix and not Milwaukee. Plus, it just feels like it's Chris Paul's time. He's paid his dues and he has the entire Suns team playing really good basketball. Everyone is feeding off his energy and I think everyone is extra fueled by the possibility of helping the great CP3 finally get a ring.
In regard to how many games this series goes, I think if Giannis is able to go for the entire series, Suns win in 7. If he misses multiple games, then we could be looking at Suns in 5 or 6 games. After seeing such an injury ridden NBA playoffs, it would be nice to at least have an NBA Finals that features the best players of both teams. Hopefully the basketball world gets what they want.
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