The Denver Nuggets will begin the New Year without their star big man Nikola Jokic, who hyperextended his left knee earlier in the week in a road game against the Miami Heat. Jokic's estimated date of return is February 1st, which means he is expected to miss all of January. The loss of Jokic for a full month is a real blow to the Nuggets as Jokic is averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 11 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Leading the league in rebounds and assists. He's having an MVP level season.
The Nuggets at the moment are 23-10, which puts them at 3rd place in the Western Conference behind the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Realistically, they could drop to the 7th spot in the Western Conference with Jokic being out given that the 7th place Phoenix Suns are just 4.0 games back of them at 19-14. Getting a top six seed is crucial in the playoffs given that seeds 7-10 go to the play-in tournament, which is basically the NBA's version of the wild card round. The Nuggets do not want to drop that low with Jokic out and they definitely want to maintain a top four seed (the 4th seeded Houston Rockets are just 1.5 games back at 20-10).
As for what "weathering the storm" would look like, I think the Nuggets need to maintain a top six seed in the West until Jokic returns. They just need to makes sure that they don't slip into that play-in tournament territory. As long as they can do that, they should like their chances of rising in the standings once he returns and possibly regaining a top three or at least top four seed in the West. They should be feeling grateful that Jokic's season isn't over and that he's projected to return with plenty of season left.
For the month of January, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are going to have to be the ones leading the way. Murray is averaging 25.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.0 steals per game while Gordon is averaging 18.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. The two of them are going to have pick up the slack in terms of scoring, rebounding, and facilitating.
And then hey, it's really gonna be on the entire team to step up. A guy I covered at Stanford, Spencer Jones, is averaging 6.0 points and 2.7 rebounds per game on 53.8% shooting from the field, 40.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 63.6% shooting from the foul line. He's been doing his part by making threes and playing good defense. With Jokic out, it's going to be even more important that guys like him do their jobs well.
As legendary Denver sportswriter Woody Paige would advise us to do, let's quickly look at the schedule that the Nuggets have for January: at Cleveland Cavaliers (19-16), at Brooklyn Nets (10-20), at Philadelphia 76ers (17-14), at Boston Celtics (20-12), vs. Atlanta Hawks (16-19), vs. Milwaukee Bucks (14-20), at New Orleans Pelicans (8-27), at Dallas Mavericks (12-22), vs. Washington Wizards (8-24), vs. Charlotte Hornets (11-22), vs. Los Angeles Lakers (20-11), at Washington Wizards (8-24), at Milwaukee Bucks, at Memphis Grizzlies (15-18), vs. Detroit Pistons (25-8), vs. Brooklyn Nets, and vs. Los Angeles Clippers (11-21).
Of those 17 games, 11 are against teams with losing records. That helps a lot. Getting the Nets and Bucks twice while also getting the Pelicans and Clippers is nice. In many ways, the biggest challenge is this upcoming four game Eastern Conference trip to face the Cavaliers, Nets, 76ers, and Celtics. If they can get a split on this trip, they should be feeling good when they come back home to face the Hawks and Bucks.
Overall, I think the Nuggets will be fine provided Jokic does indeed return come February. The schedule is pretty light and I have confidence in Murray and Gordon as well as the rest of the team to do their job. Plus, being in 3rd place, the Nuggets have built a bit of a buffer to handle a stretch like this. They should certainly hope to get Jokic back as soon as possible, but having to play without him for a month isn't something they should be freaking out about, either.
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