Southwest Division Preview

My preview for the 2013-14 NBA season continues as I take a look at the Southwest Division of the Western Conference, which is home to the Houston Rockets, New Orleans Pelicans, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks. As I've done for my past two previews, I will address each team in order of where I see them finishing, but do keep in mind with this division that every team in the division is at least a decent team. There are no bad teams in the Southwest Division, with every team having the possibility of making the playoffs. This is by far the toughest division in the NBA.

San Antonio Spurs: Back in June, the San Antonio Spurs lost in the NBA Finals to the Miami Heat in a series that they would have won had Ray Allen not hit a clutch corner three. Many people didn't think the Spurs could advance to the NBA Finals with an aging Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, but the Spurs proved their doubters wrong, showing that they were just as dangerous as any team that Gregg Popovich had ever coached. Once again in the 2013-14 NBA season, many people are asking the same questions as last year: "Are the Spurs too old?" "Have they already had their second wind?"  I expect the Spurs to show that they aren't too old and that they still have plenty of good basketball left in them. However, with that being said, the Western Conference has just gotten a lot more tough thanks to moves that the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets have made. The road back to the NBA Finals is going to be even tougher as a result of other teams around them getting better; not because they themselves have depreciated. Look for Tony Parker to be another MVP candidate, look for Tim Duncan to be an elite power forward, and look for their young supporting cast (Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, and Danny Green) to continue to improve and be even better this season. There's no doubt the Spurs will be dangerous enough to get back to the NBA Finals, but whether or not they'll deliver is the question.

Houston Rockets: The Houston Rockets were blessed (perhaps cursed) with the fortune of winning the Dwight Howard sweepstakes this past summer. On a team that already featured James Harden and Chandler Parsons, Dwight Howard just might be the missing ingredient in a recipe for championship success. The key for the Rockets is whether or not Dwight Howard can take that next step from being the best center in the NBA to being one of the best centers of all-time. Howard has never averaged more than 23 points per game in any of his 9 NBA seasons, despite being a defensive force in the paint. Dwight Howard needs to average at least 25 points per game in order for the Rockets to be a contending team. The blocks and rebounds will of course come, but the scoring is still a big question mark. More specifically, they need him to hit his free throws. The bottom line for the Rockets is pretty simple: If Dwight Howard has a "breakthrough" season, averages above 25 points per game and hits around 70% of his foul shots (as he did in his rookie season), then the Rockets will contend for a title. If he continues to be the same Dwight Howard he's been (which is still the best center in the NBA), then they won't be a contending team, but rather a team that might win a first round series.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies made the bold move of trading Rudy Gay this past season in an effort to save some cap space so as to retain their front court centered around Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. However, it came at the price of perhaps winning the Western Conference crown. The Grizzlies are a team that anybody can root for because they play a very team oriented type of  basketball centered around defense, rebounding, and balance. The Grizzlies will once again be a very tough team to beat since defense and rebounding are at the heart of every championship caliber team. A team MUST play good defense and crash the glass in order to win a championship. However, a team MUST also have a superstar to build around who can take over games and come through consistently in the clutch. The Grizzlies do not have that piece of their championship puzzle since they traded away Rudy Gay. They still will make the playoffs and win a lot of games, but I don't see them being a team that gets close to reaching the Western Conference Finals.

New Orleans Pelicans: Yes it is true, the New Orleans Pelicans are a real NBA team, and they have the potential to be a pretty darn good one, too. They made a lot of upgrades this past off-season through trading Nerlens Noel in the draft to the 76ers for point guard Jrue Holiday as well as making a trade with the Kings and Trail Blazers to land shooting guard/small forward Tyreke Evans. The Pelicans (if healthy) will consist of a back court of Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon and a front court of Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, and Greg Steimsma. Where does Evans fit in? He will come off the bench as their offensive spark plug. On paper they look pretty solid since their backcourt should have no problem putting the ball in the bucket and their front court should do a good job of controlling the paint. The key to this team is health. If healthy, they could make a playoff run since they have so many guys who can do so many things (Gordon with his scoring; Holiday with his play making abilities; Davis with his rebounding and defense; and Evans as their spark). However even if they remain healthy, the playoffs are not a sure thing since the Western Conference is really deep and their division is the toughest division in the entire NBA. Having a combined 16 games against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Rockets is not going to be easy on this team since they are unlikely to win more than half of those games. If they're going to make a playoff push, they'll have to make ground elsewhere by beating all the bad teams in the NBA like the 76ers, Bucks, Kings, Jazz, and Suns. If they can do well against those kinds of teams, and hold their own at home, they might have what it takes to make the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks quietly added Monta Ellis during the off-season in what I think was a very underrated move. Ellis is a terrific player who just needs to surrounded by good players like Dirk Nowitzki. Reports say that they are learning to play effective pick and roll basketball together, which means that Ellis is more than willing to share the ball and shed himself of his reputation of being a ball hog. As for the rest of the team,  I don't see much to be really excited about in terms of making a playoff push. Vince Carter and Shawn Marion are both getting old, and the new additions of Devin Harris and DeJuan Blair are off-season acquisitions that deserve to fly under the radar. If they were in the Eastern Conference, the Mavericks would likely be a playoff team, but in the Western Conference, they'll be in a battle with the Pelicans to not be the at the bottom of the division. I mentioned at the beginning of my preview for this division that there isn't a bad team in this division, and I stand by that claim. The Mavericks are a good NBA team, but when I look at the rest of their division as well as the rest of the Western Conference, I don't see any reason to think the Mavericks will be a factor in the playoff mix during the last 10-15 games of the season.

---By Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord