Kevin Durant is a lock to win the 2014 NBA MVP award. That's right, he's a LOCK. The odds that anybody besides Kevin Durant wins the 2014 NBA MVP Award is at 0% and it isn't going to change. You might be thinking to yourselves that LeBron James or Paul George has a chance to win the award over the course of the second half of the season, but you would be wrong to think that. Dead wrong. The fact of the matter is that a combination of Durant's sensational play, the lack of support from Russell Westbrook, and NBA history is what makes Durant a lock to win the MVP award. I will explain how these three elements combine to make him a lock to win the award.
First, let's address his sensational play. Over the last 5 games, Durant has had games of 54 points, 30 points, 46 points, 36 points, and 32 points. Not only is he scoring at ridiculous rates, but he's doing it while sharing the ball. He has combined for 34 assists over these past 5 games, which amounts to an average of 39.6 points and 6.8 assists. Over the course of the season, he's averaging a league high 31.1 points per game to go along with 7.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.5 steals. He's the ultimate fantasy basketball player, and more importantly the most valuable player in the NBA right now. Nobody else is playing nearly as well he is. Not even LeBron James.
Not only are his stats the best in the NBA, but he's also leading his team to the best record in the Western Conference with a 35-10 record. More impressively, he's done this without the help of Russell Westbrook, who has only played in 25 of those 45 games. Durant has had to carry the team on his back for the past month and a half, and he's done far better than anybody could have anticipated. One of the key ingredients for having an MVP season is carrying a team on your back and winning in the process. Especially if you do it with a key member of the team getting hurt. If you can win games with your #2 player sidelined and carry the team, MVP voters take strong notice of that when they cast their votes.
Not only is Durant playing out of his mind and in the process carrying the team on his back to the best record in the NBA, but he's also DUE for an MVP award. That's right folks, the NBA MVP Award isn't always about who the best player in the NBA is. Over the course of the NBA's history, the MVP award has been traditionally passed around and given to different players each season. While the NBA MVP Award has gone to Michael Jordan 5 times and LeBron James 4 times, the award is frequently given to the best of players only once or twice in their careers even if they are deserving of it more than once. Players like Charles Barkley, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon, Allen Iverson, and Kobe Bryant all won MVP Awards once when they probably could have won it more than once, but didn't due to other guys being "due".
More importantly in Durant's case, the NBA MVP Award is rarely given to players multiple times in a row, and as it happens, LeBron James has won the award two seasons in a row and four out of the last five seasons. Rarely has anybody won it for a third straight time such as Larry Bird, Bill Russell, and Wilt Chamberlain, who are the only three guys to ever accomplish that feat. Winning it back to back years isn't terribly uncommon since Steve Nash, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan have all accomplished that feat, but winning it 3 times is very very rare. One cannot expect LeBron James to win the award for a third straight season based on history alone, and then when somebody like Durant comes along and out performs him, one might as well say that LeBron James won't win the MVP Award.
In conclusion, the reason why Kevin Durant is a lock to win MVP is because he's putting up the best numbers, leading his team to the top of the standings with Westbrook sidelined, and LeBron James has had the spotlight four out of the last five seasons. Those three factors combine to form an airtight case for not only why Kevin Durant should win MVP, but more importantly why he will win MVP. It's that simple.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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