With 10 games to go in the NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors are 65-7. The Warriors can only afford two losses in order to have a better record than the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who finished with a 72-10 record. What I will do is break down their remaining schedule and calculate their odds of finishing with 73+ wins. After each game, I will italicize what their record would be with the outcome that I predict.
Sunday March 27- vs. Philadelphia: On Easter Sunday, the Golden State Warriors will take on the 9-64 Philadelphia 76ers in Oakland. The Warriors did not play on Saturday whereas the 76ers had a heartbreaking loss in Portland. The fact that the Warriors will be catching the 76ers on a second half of a back-to-back makes it as close to a lock as possible that they will win. I expect the Warriors to win this game by a final score of 110-87. (66-7)
Tuesday March 29-vs. Washington: At the moment, the Washington Wizards are 35-37, which is good for 10th in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games and are currently on a two-game losing streak. The Wizards will get a tune-up game on Sunday in Los Angeles against the Lakers, which is a game they'll absolutely need to win in order to give themselves any chance of winning in Oracle Arena. What hurts the Wizards is that Andre Iguodala (ankle) is projected to return to the lineup on Tuesday, making the Warriors virtually 100% healthy. I expect the Warriors to win this game by a final score of 114-102. They'll be healthy, playing at home, and the Wizards have been very so-so as of late. (67-7)
Wednesday March 30-at Utah: Believe it or not, this one is far from a lock. The Jazz are 36-37 overall, which is good enough for the #8 seed in the Western Conference right now. The Jazz are hot at the moment having won 7 of their last 10 games and Salt Lake City is always a tough place to play due to the altitude and the raucous fans. Plus, the Warriors will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back and the Jazz will really need this game to make the playoffs, which makes things even tougher.
However, the Jazz are far from invincible at home with a 22-13 record. I expect the Warriors to win this game by a score of 94-90. It'll be close, but the Warriors should pull this one out. (68-7)
Friday April 1-vs. Boston: The Boston Celtics are 4th in the Eastern Conference with a 43-30 record overall and they've also won 4 straight games. Isaiah Thomas is a handful averaging 22.2 points per game and he is a player who won't be afraid of the Oracle Arena crowd. That being said, the Warriors are undefeated at home on the season and if Jae Crowder remains out with an ankle injury, the Celtics will not be at full strength. The Celtics are a quality opponent, but not good enough to steal a win in Oracle Arena. Look for the Warriors to win by a score of 102-94. (69-7)
Sunday April 3-vs. Portland: The Portland Trail Blazers are 38-36 at the moment and narrowly beat the Philadelphia 76ers at home tonight. Unless Damian Lillard has the game of his life and my man from Cal Allen Crabbe goes off or something crazy, look for the Warriors to win this game handily. 103-93. (70-7)
Tuesday April 5-vs. Minnesota: Don't dismiss the Timberwolves so fast. Andrew Wiggins is a rising star as is Karl-Anthony Towns. The Warriors could fall asleep at the wheel with this one...Ok, honestly, I see no way the Timberwolves win in Oakland. They are 24-49 at the moment and are not a very good team. Don't get me wrong, the future is bright in Minnesota, but the Warriors are going to blow the doors off the Timberwolves by a final score of 114-87. (71-7)
Thursday April 7-vs. San Antonio: The Spurs are 61-12 at the moment and are the only team with any chance of taking out the Warriors in a 7-game series. They are a very dangerous team. When these two teams play, the only way to figure out who should win is location. With this game being played in Oakland, I got the Warriors winning 97-94. (72-7)
Saturday April 9-at Memphis: Needing one win to break the record, the Warriors will really want to close it out so that they can relax in their final two games of the regular season. However, the Grizzlies are 41-32 overall and 5th in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are a very good basketball team who pride themselves on protecting their home floor and playing stingy defense.
Plus, the Warriors eliminated the Grizzlies in the playoffs last season and the Grizzlies will not want to see the Warriors break the record on their home floor. The Warriors will be due for a loss in this game, having won 10 straight games, so I'm going to say that somehow, someway, the Grizzlies find a way to upset the Warriors in the FedExForum on Beale Street. 90-88 will be the final score. (72-8)
Sunday April 10-at San Antonio: This game is tricky to predict because the Spurs have the #2 seed in the Western Conference locked up and Gregg Popovich has a history of resting his key players in meaningless games and in many ways, this is a meaningless game for the Spurs. They can't improve their seeding and the last thing they want to do is get fatigued or injured right before the playoffs. With that being the case, the Spurs will also want to send a message to the Warriors and not let them get a free win on their home court. This one is tricky. I'm going to say that the Spurs play the Warriors wire to wire and try to make a statement in this game. They'll rest their guys other nights, but not this one. Spurs win 95-93. (72-9)
Wednesday April 13-vs. Memphis: The Grizzlies very well may fend off the Warriors in Memphis, but in Oakland, with the record on the line, the Warriors will demolish the Grizzlies 120-97. The Grizzlies have the makeup of a team who could steal a game in Oakland, but not on a night when the Warriors have a chance to make history. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will go WILD in this game and everybody will be having a big old time in Oracle Arena. The Warriors will indeed break the record in their final game of the regular season, finishing with a 73-9 record.
Conclusion: The bottom line is that the Warriors should break the 1995-96 Bulls' 72-10 record. The schedule is relatively favorable for them due to having 7 of their last 10 games being played at home. I don't see the Warriors losing any games at home on the season, which really means it comes down to the three road games in Utah, Memphis, and San Antonio.
What's a little worrisome for the Warriors is that all three of those cities are tough places to win ball games. Utah will be crucial because that's a tough environment and the Jazz will really want that game because of its playoff implications for them. If the Warriors win in Salt Lake City and come in with only 7 losses, they should break the 1995-96 Bulls' record with a certainty of 75-80%. That's how high I put they odds of the Warriors winning 73+ games should they get the win in Salt Lake City. If on the other hand, the Warriors lose in Salt Lake, I still think they'll find a way to get the record, but the odds will drop to 55%, which is almost a coin flip. As an overall percentage, I think the Warriors have 70% odds of getting the record.
It'll certainly be interesting to see how the Warriors do down the stretch. They have everything locked up except the best record in NBA history. The biggest question is how much do the Warriors really want this record? They want it, but do they want it enough to treat the last 5 games of the regular season like playoff games when they could instead be resting up and getting ready to defend their NBA championship? Ultimately, I'm banking on the Warriors wanting the record enough to go all out during these final 10 games. It would mean a lot for them, their fans, and the entire NBA.
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