We are one month into the 2019-20 NBA season being shut down due to COVID-19 and with a return date still up-in-the-air, we have to start thinking about the unfortunate possibility that the season does not return. If it does return, I don't see the full 82 games being played. Rather, I see the league doing something like stopping at 72. That way teams get a few games in before the playoffs start. You wouldn't want to just dive straight into playoff mode after missing more than one month of action.
Further, I don't see fans returning this season. If the NBA does indeed return, I foresee a scenario in which only players, coaches, refs, and essential media personnel are allowed into the arenas. Something that was discussed as an alternative to the season getting shut down. I think that's how we'll ease back into things.
Back to the possibility of the season getting canceled, there are a number of reasons why I'm starting to think this will happen. The first reason is the NBA calendar. You gotta remember, the NBA operates year-round. It's not like during the offseason nothing happens. You have the NBA Draft, free agency, training camps, summer league, etc. That's not to say those things can't be rearranged for a year. They can. It's just that the longer things remained shut down, the more complicated things become.
The second reason why the season could get canceled is television. Television companies have built in contracts to broadcast certain events at certain times. ABC for example may have to choose between the NBA Finals and some other program they want to air and may not be willing to give up the NBA Finals to another company. Things like that.
Third, there's the issue of player safety. It's hard to go from not playing at all to playing high level basketball. Players will need at least a couple of weeks to get back in game shape before play resumes. It's possible that players decide that resuming play just isn't feasible if they want to have some recovery time in the offseason and resume things on time in the fall.
Finally and most importantly, the fluidity of this whole COVID-19 situation makes the possibility of a canceled season all the more real. I could see the season restarting in June, but what about July or August? At some point, doesn't it just make more sense to bag the season and restart in October?
I want the NBA to return as much as anyone. It's been a fantastic season with lots of fun stories to follow with the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Raptors, and much more. But, that all said, sometimes you have to acknowledge the writing on the wall. At best, I think there's a 50% chance the season resumes and the longer this goes on, the more I think the odds of a canceled season will go up.
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