If you are a loyal reader of NBALord.com, you know that I've spent a fair amount of time addressing LaMelo Ball in my recent Mock Draft Monday pieces. First he was out for a month due to a foot injury, then it was reported he was donating money to help with the fires in Australia, and now it's been revealed that he is in fact done playing for the Illawarra Hawks of the National Basketball League in Australia, choosing to instead get ready for the 2020 NBA Draft. For more on that, read Jonathan Givony's story here.
In my first blog post on Ball (which you can read here), I expressed cautious optimism that so long as his foot injury isn't that big of a deal and that he can return to finish his season, his draft stock shouldn't be affected much if at all. However, I did also raise the possibility that his injury could be worse than advertised and that NBA teams will take note of his injury and track his progress.
This latest development in the LaMelo Ball saga isn't a good one, even if his camp is insisting he's just rehabbing as expected. For starters, this gives NBA teams less chance to evaluate him. It's already hard enough to fly down to Australia to scout him, but when he only plays half the season, that catches teams by surprise, many of which weren't able to send an international scout to watch him yet. If Ball was a surefire lock to go #1 overall in the draft and was deemed the second coming of LeBron James, this wouldn't be a big deal. However, he's not the second coming of LeBron James. There are some questions about whether or not he's really as good as advertised and if he's perhaps hiding his flaws by going overseas and cutting his season short.
As an extension of that, there have to now be questions about his toughness and durability. Especially after what we've seen from New Orleans Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson. If you aren't able to play a full NBA season and are constantly in and out of the lineup, it doesn't matter how good you are. I know it sounds obvious, but in order to help a team win, you have to actually play!
Another issue for Ball is he's running the risk of a couple college players perhaps leaping ahead of him in the draft if they have a good NCAA tournament. While he is projected to be a top three pick at the moment, that could change if someone has a killer tournament and boosts their stock. We've seen guys expected to go in the top five fall outside of the lottery. I'm not saying that will happen to Ball, but it is conceivable teams pass on him over concerns of him being too much of an unknown. E.g. Dante Exum.
One final issue for Ball is the fact that his brother Lonzo isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Lonzo is averaging 12.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game in his third year with the New Orleans Pelicans. Those are solid numbers, but not numbers you would expect from a number two overall pick in his third year in the NBA. NBA teams could see LaMelo as another version of his brother and that's not a good thing if you're trying to get picked in the top three.
So, where does this leave us? Ultimately, that remains to be seen. It's totally possible that LaMelo still gets picked in the top three or even goes #1 overall. If that happens, then all of my concerns were for naught. However, given that we can't predict the future, the possibility that LaMelo slips in the draft also remains. It'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out for him.
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