The Western Conference Finals tips off in about an hour, so I will have to write my preview for this series pretty quickly. Just like the Eastern Conference Finals, the top two seeds have advanced to the Conference Finals: #1 San Antonio Spurs against the #2 Oklahoma City Thunder. Going into this series, the number one story is the absence of Serge Ibaka, the Thunder's top defensive player and rim protector. He is sidelined with a calf injury and he is expected to miss the entire series. While it is true that I picked the Spurs to win this series with a healthy Serge Ibaka, I did think that the Thunder had a decent chance of winning the series. Without Serge Ibaka, I just don't see how they can win this series for both defensive and offensive reasons.
First off, the absence of Ibaka means that they will rely heavily on rookie center Steven Adams to play defense, who has evolved into one of the more surprising rookies this season. Even with Adams' success, it still is a lot to ask a rookie to fill the shoes of one of the league's premiere defenders. A defender who was so valuable that he was chosen as more valuable to the Thunder than James Harden. Filling the void left by Serge Ibaka will be a team effort that will also require Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, and Hasheem Thabeet to step up. Can those guys step up? They can, but not enough to make up for Ibaka's absence in my book.
As for the offensive side of the coin, the Thunder are also hurt by Ibaka's absence since he is their third scoring option behind Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. As a matter of fact, without Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson is the only other player on the Thunder who has been scoring in double figures this whole post season, and his scoring average is just a shade above 10 points per game. The Thunder will really need Caron Butler to have a big series to help make up the difference for Ibaka's absence on the scoring end.
In addition to having problems with their player personnel, perhaps the biggest problem the Thunder have is the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder rely heavily on two players to carry the load, whereas the Spurs rely much more on 6 or 7 guys to pitch in and play as a great team unit. I think the fact that the Spurs are such a contrasting style of team is what makes them such a difficult matchup for the Thunder. The Spurs may be led by Tony Parker, who is the best point guard in the NBA during the playoffs, but they don't need him to put up 30 points per game like the Thunder need Kevin Durant to. The Spurs can win without their best player playing well, and that is what makes them so scary. They have a system that works and they have the parts to make that system work even when one of the parts is having a rough night. If Tony Parker is off, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Kawhi Leonard can pick up the slack, etc. There is no easy answer to the question "How do you beat the Spurs" since they beat you in so many ways. They beat you with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker slashing and attacking the rim; they beat you with Danny Green and Marco Belinelli knocking down threes; they beat you with Kawhi Leonard playing tough defense on the perimeter; and most importantly they beat you with Gregg Popovich out-coaching your coach.
I hate to say this, but if the Oklahoma City Thunder had Gregg Popovich as their head coach and not Scott Brooks, then I'd probably pick the Thunder to win this series. But instead, the Spurs have Gregg Popovich (the greatest coach in NBA history as far as I'm concerned) and the Thunder have Scott Brooks, a coach who is yet to prove that he really can get the most out of his roster. I think the fact that the Spurs have Popovich is what puts the nail in the coffin in this series.
The reason why the Spurs beat you in so many ways is because Gregg Popovich knows his players really well and schemes to bring out their strengths and hide their weaknesses. With Serge Ibaka out, Popovich's job just got a whole lot easier. He can have Tony Parker attack the rim more, he can have Duncan get even more touches down low, etc.
Going into this series with a healthy Ibaka, the only advantage the Thunder had was perhaps having the better overall roster. But without Ibaka, they lose that advantage as well, which really means that there is little to no chance of the Thunder winning this series without their #3 player. I have the Spurs winning this series in 5 games.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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