The NBA season starts today, so I'm trying to get these previews under the gun! I am moving on to my preview of the Southwest Division, home to the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, and New Orleans Pelicans. As has been standard protocol on my previews, I will list each team in order of where I think they will finish with their win total in parentheses.
San Antonio Spurs (59)
The machine that is known as the San Antonio Spurs is coming off their fifth NBA championship in franchise history and they don't show any signs of slowing down. Just when you think they are ready to head for a "re-building" period, they continue to find ways to compete, contend, and win NBA championships.
What is probably most frightening for opponents of the Spurs is the emergence of Kawhi Leonard as the next superstar of the franchise. The franchise appears to be in good hands with Kawhi Leonard as their star once Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker retire. In addition to Leonard, Tiago Splitter also appears to be on the verge of being another key piece to build around for years to come.
As for this season, Splitter and especially Leonard should really take the pressure off of the Spurs' "Big Three", allowing them to spend more time resting for the playoffs without the worry of losing too much ground in the standings. The key to the Spurs' success is the balance between making sure their core veterans are rested for the playoffs and also making sure that they are still winning enough games in the regular season to position themselves well for the playoffs. The Spurs appear to have the pieces to accomplish the goal of keeping the old guys fresh while also making a run for the top spot in the West. So long as they are able to do this, they are sure to be a really scary team.
Lastly, the Spurs have Gregg Popovich, who in my opinion is arguably the greatest coach in the history of the NBA. If there is any man who can help the Spurs maintain a perfect balance between rest and playoff positioning, it's Gregg Popovich. He will once again do a masterful job with this team and make sure his guys are ready for the playoffs.
Houston Rockets (54)
The Houston Rockets are truly what I call a "two-man freak show" now that Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons are gone. This "freak show" consists of James Harden and Dwight Howard. Harden continues to be one of the league's best shooting guards, averaging 25.4 points and 6.1 assists per game last season and Howard is still the league's best center.
The key thing to look for in this Rockets team is whether or not both of these guys are ready to carry the load and take on the responsibility of being the leaders of a championship caliber team. This team was designed to be a contending team with Howard and Harden as the foundation. It's time that these two guys prove that they can be such a foundation.
The Rockets don't have a championship caliber supporting cast around Howard and Harden, but that doesn't mean Howard and Harden can't play like a championship caliber duo. The Rockets' success this season has to be measured by the performance of Howard and Harden as a duo and not by the team's overall success.
This team as presently constituted, even if Howard and Harden become a championship caliber duo, is not going to win the Western Conference crown. The very best case scenario for the Rockets is that they win a series and maybe take 2 games in the next round. If they do that, they can be confident in Howard and Harden as their duo for the future.
Dallas Mavericks (52)
When looking at the Mavericks' roster, the first thing that jumps out at me is all the possible options they have at point guard. They have Monta Ellis (more of a shooting guard), Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, and Raymond Felton all on their roster. This is rather unusual and I expect them to trade one of these guards before the trade deadline.
Anyways, on to the rest of the team! Dirk Nowitzki is still getting it done as one of the league's best players, averaging 21.7 points per game last season. He showed last season that he is still capable of leading a team to a championship provided he gets enough help. Does he have enough help? I don't think so, but Monta Ellis is a really nice #2 option for the Mavericks to have as is newly acquired small forward Chandler Parsons, who is coming over from their in-state rival Houston Rockets. Both of those guys are really solid players who help take the pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki.
Ultimately, I expect the Mavericks to be in the playoff mix all season and if they get a good first round opponent, they could find themselves in the second round of the playoffs. However, the Western Conference is really competitive and a lot of teams will be breathing down the Mavericks' neck all season. Look for the Mavericks to be a competitive team this season, but not a contending team.
Memphis Grizzlies (51)
The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a very good season in which they took the Oklahoma City Thunder to a Game 7 in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. Last year they had a really competitive team that didn't quite seem to be able to get over the hump. Can they get over the hump this year?
Reason to believe that they can is that they added Vince Carter, which is a signing I have applauded on BealeStreetBears.com, a Memphis Grizzlies website I write for. The reason why I applaud this signing is that Carter brings three-point shooting, experience, an additional scoring punch, and a clutch factor to the team. He's a guy who this team can trust to hit big shots in big moments. While the team is still built around Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley, Carter's presence will be huge this season as a guy who can on occasion step up like they do.
The Grizzlies should once again be a competitive team this season. Their core group is intact with Tony Allen as the heart and soul of their grind it out defensive style of play. They also added Jordan Adams from UCLA in the draft to give them another much needed long-ball threat. This team has the makeup to make some noise in the playoffs as we saw last season. But it remains to be seen whether or not they can make the jump from scaring teams like the Thunder and Clippers to actually knocking them out of the playoffs.
New Orleans Pelicans (39)
Anthony Davis appears to be on the verge of superstardom which should be great news for the Pelicans. The problem for them, however, is that this could also indicate he's on the verge of leaving. The key thing for this Pelicans team to do is convince Anthony Davis that he can compete in New Orleans and that they are capable of building a competitive team around him. If they can do that this season, then they'll have had a good year.
Whether or not they accomplish this goal largely comes down to health. Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon, who all are the main guys built around Davis, have had injuries during their careers. If they can stay healthy and figure out how to play together, things could look rather promising for the Pelicans. If they don't stay healthy, then things will look rough and complicated for the Pelicans as well as the future of Anthony Davis with the team.
As for this season, I don't expect the Pelicans to make the playoffs or come close. They should improve from last season and come close to 40 wins, but they'll likely need at least 44 wins to make the playoffs. I don't see them making that kind of improvement in one season.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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