Western Conference Finals Preview: #1. Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #2 Houston Rockets (56-26)
The Western Conference Finals tips off tonight at 9:00 PM EST on ESPN. The Golden State Warriors come into this series having taken out the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. As for the Houston Rockets, they come into this series having taken out the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games after trailing 3-1. Neither team had an easy time winning their previous series, but after being tested, they proved themselves worthy to be in the NBA's final four.
The most obvious thing to look for in this series is the battle between Stephen Curry and James Harden. While they won't be guarding each other much, the battle will consist of which one of them can step up more in crunch time. Both players will find ways to get their 25-30 points, but what remains to be seen is which of them will be better when the game is on the line.
If James Harden wants to prove he should have won MVP instead of Stephen Curry, he'll need to make sure he steps up in crunch time and leads his team to victory. As for Stephen Curry, I don't think he needs to prove anything in the MVP discussion. He rightfully won the award and was well deserving. All the same, if he wants to silence any doubters, he too will need to make big plays in the final minutes and lead his team to victory.
In addition to the performance of Stephen Curry and James Harden on the perimeter, the battle in the paint between Dwight Howard and Andrew Bogut will be crucial to the outcome of this series. The Grizzlies were able to give the Warriors trouble when they slowed the tempo down and fed the ball to Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph down on the block. If Dwight Howard is able to have his way with Andrew Bogut and dominate inside, the Rockets may be able to do something the Grizzlies couldn't, which is beat the Warriors in the paint as well as on the perimeter. If Andrew Bogut is able to keep Dwight Howard quiet and provide some scoring inside, the Warriors will really have a choke hold on the Rockets.
Lastly, the tempo of this series will be something to watch. The Warriors love to get out in transition and find open shooters. Stephen Curry is at his best when he's in transition and is able to find either Klay Thompson or Draymond Green for an open three. The Rockets also seem to enjoy playing in transition with James Harden either popping a three or creating a shot for others. If this series is played at a fast tempo, the Warriors will win this series really easily. If the Rockets are able to slow it down and play more in the half court, they will give themselves a better chance to win.
At the end of the day, I don't think the Rockets will be able to change their style of play, which is why I have the Warriors winning this series in five games. The Warriors won the regular season series 4-0 and I don't see any reason to think the Rockets extend this series to six or seven games.
The issue is that the way the Rockets play doesn't really give the Warriors a lot of problems. They like to run up and down in transition and take threes even more than the Warriors, but with less efficiency. During the regular season, the Warriors shot an average of 27.0 threes per game with a three-point percentage of 39.8% while the Rockets shot an average of 32.7 threes per game with a three-point percentage of 34.8%. In addition, the Warriors averaged 27.4 assists and 14.1 turnovers per game while the Rockets averaged 22.2 assists and 15.9 turnovers per game.
In short, the Warriors play the Rockets' game, but they play it better. Assuming the Rockets don't morph into the Memphis Grizzlies with better perimeter shooting, the Warriors will run away with this series. There honestly isn't any reason to expect this series to be close. I want to give the Rockets props for the way that they played against the Clippers, but they simply don't have a lineup or a style that should worry the Warriors.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news
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