#1. Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #5. Memphis Grizzlies (55-27):
The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies meet in the second round after the Warriors swept the New Orleans Pelicans and the Grizzlies took out the Portland Trail Blazers in five games. The Warriors won the regular season series 2-1, dominating the Grizzlies the last two times they played in the regular season. Given that the Warriors won the regular season series and cruised to the best record in the NBA, there is no reason to not have the Warriors as the favorites to win this series.
In addition to the Warriors having the better record and on paper the better team, the Warriors are also the team that is more healthy. The Grizzlies are without their starting point guard Mike Conley, who is recovering from facial fractures. Conley was warming up before Game 1 wearing a mask, but ended up not playing due to swelling in his face. Conley will try to give it a go in Game 2 on Tuesday, but odds he plays remain dicey.
While there are plenty of reasons to pick the Warriors to win this series with the Grizzlies at full strength, one can almost certainly rule out any chance of a Memphis Grizzlies victory with Mike Conley injured. Conley is crucial to what this team does both in terms of his offensive production and defensive impact. When he is on the floor, everybody is able to do their job with more efficiency and ease. When he is off the floor, things simply don't run as smoothly.
In addition to getting good production from their backup point guards Nick Calathes and Beno Udrih, the Grizzlies will really need to win the battle on the glass and get stellar production from their big men Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. If those guys play big inside, the Grizzlies may have a chance to steal a game in Golden State. But unfortunately, even with Mike Conley healthy, the Grizzlies will still need those guys to play big, which once again underscores how hard it is for the Grizzlies to win without Mike Conley.
In terms of what the Warriors need to do, they need to play their game which is get stops, press the ball in transition, and find open shooters. If the Warriors are able to play up to the pace and tempo that they like and find open shooters in transition, they will not be stopped. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are too good of shooters, and while the Grizzlies do have quality perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Courtney Lee, there isn't much those guys can do when it comes to playing defense in transition. Like all defenders, those guys are best in the half court.
Going off of that, the Grizzlies will want to do everything they can to slow the game down and get things into a half court set on both ends of the floor. If this series grinds to a halt and there are fewer possessions for both teams, the Grizzlies will have a very good chance of winning this series because they focus on playing well in the paint as opposed to the perimeter. It's hard to win games when most of your shots are from the perimeter, but at some point, if you are good enough and you get enough looks, the reward outweighs the risk.
At the end of the day, I'm picking the Warriors to win this series in six games. They have the better team and Mike Conley's health is a huge question mark looming over the series. All the same, the Grizzlies are a tough team and I think they'll find a way to win a couple of games. The Grizzlies certainly have the player personnel and the style to give the Warriors trouble. It's just that when they are undermanned, one cannot realistically expect them to come out of this series on top.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news
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