NBA Lord's NBA Blog

NBA Lord's NBA Blog

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Wednesday Windmill: The Golden State Warriors didn't defy the laws of basketball



     One of the so called "takeaways" from the Golden State Warriors' championship is that they defied the laws of basketball by going small and relying on perimeter shooting. I don't deny that these were key elements to their success, but unlike most people, I don't think that this is why they won the 2015 NBA championship. Further, I don't think the Warriors have proved Charles Barkley's criticism of jump-shooting teams to be unwarranted.

     There are three universal laws or truths of basketball that will always remain with us. The first truth is that having more size is always an advantage. The second truth is that it is easier to score by hitting layups and free throws than it is to hit three-point shots and mid-range jump shots. The third truth is that having more depth than the other team is always an advantage.

     Some people are quick to say that the Warriors have dispelled the first two truths and that going small and hitting threes is the new path to win championships. People who say this don't know the game of basketball. That may sound harsh, but it's the truth.

    There will never come a day in which the NBA will no longer consist of 7-foot players. Further, there will never come a day when a dominant big man won't be on the top of everybody's draft boards.
Here is an argument that proves this:

Defense and rebounding are the most sure-fire ways to win basketball games;  players who are best at playing defense and rebounding are the most valuable players; nobody rebounds and plays defense better than a dominant big man; therefore, a dominant big man will always be the most valuable player.

     If you take the assumption about defense and rebounding to be true, then this argument is logically sound and true. If you don't take the assumption about defense and rebounding to be true, then you have to say that offense wins championships. If you are comfortable saying "offense wins championships", that's fine, but just know that every respected person in the game of basketball disagrees with your stance.

     In regards to the second universal truth that I mentioned, I think this is self-evident. It is always easier to score by hitting layups and free throws than it is by making threes and mid-range jump shots. Anybody who says this isn't true has never played basketball and lives in world of video games. I will just leave it at that.

     The third universal truth is that having more depth than the other team is always an advantage, and this is also self-evident. If one team has six good players and the other team has nine good players, the team with nine good players has an advantage over the team with six good players. Even if the team with six good players has the best player overall, it is still a universal truth that the team with more good players has an advantage in that they have more good players. This doesn't mean the team with more good players will win, but it does mean that having more good players gives them an advantage.

     So what does this all have to do with the Warriors? Didn't they win by hitting jump shots and going small? Didn't they show that you don't need to worry about foul shots, layups, or size? The answer is no.

     They merely showed that if you have more depth and weapons than the other team, you are likely to come out victorious, which is the third universal truth I mentioned. In other words, the Warriors' depth and teamwork is the primary reason they won the NBA title. Their style was a secondary feature and something that worked for them largely because of their specific set of players and depth.

     If you look at the per game averages of the players on the Warriors, their depth isn't really seen. It looks like the Stephen Curry & Klay Thompson show with a few good role players. Where their depth really gets seen is if you look at their per 36 minutes averages. Out of the 15 players on their roster, the Warriors had 13 players who averaged at least 10 points per 36 minutes of playing time. A surprise that I saw when seeing this was Marreese Speights, who averaged 23.6 points per 36 minutes. He's a guy who on average played only 15.9 minutes per game!

     In addition, the Warriors had 6 players who averaged at least 9.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, 7 players who averaged at least 1 block per 36 minutes, 10 players who averaged at least 1 steal per 36 minutes, and 5 players who averaged at least 4 assists per 36 minutes.

     To give you a sense of how this compares to other teams, I will give you the per 36 numbers of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavaliers had 6 players who averaged at least 10 points, 1 player who averaged above 9 rebounds, 5 players who averaged at least 1 steal, 1 player who averaged at least 1 block, and 2 players who averaged at least 4 assists. The Clippers had 16 players who played for them during the season who averaged at least 10 points, 1 player who averaged above 9 rebounds, 15 players who averaged at least 1 steal, 3 players who averaged at least 1 block, and 5 players who averaged at least 4 assists.

     In comparison to the Cavaliers, the Warriors were vastly more deep and versatile across all phases of the game. Against the Clippers, the Warriors had a definite edge in interior defense and rebounding, while in the other areas it was pretty much a toss up.

    What does all this analytics tell us? It tells us that the Warriors had great depth, played good defense, and rebounded well. If we go back to the three universal truths of basketball, the Warriors actually excelled in two of those three areas. They clearly had enough size to rebound well and they clearly had more depth than everybody else.

     In regards to the part about it being easier to score by hitting layups and free throws than it is to hit threes and mid-range jump shots, the Warriors somewhat defied this law, but not entirely. A lot of the threes that they hit were open looks and in addition, they benefited from having Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in their backcourt, two guys who happen to be the best three-point shooting tandem the NBA has ever seen. If you have those two guys in your backcourt, you clearly don't have to worry as much about the number of threes you are taking.

     In regards to layups and free throws, the Warriors excelled in these areas as well. They shot 76.8% from the foul line as a team which ranked 9th overall in the league. The reason why they didn't opt to use layups and free throws as their primary means of scoring is simple: They had two guys who were really really good at hitting threes and a bunch of guys who could knock down an open three when given the chance.

     In conclusion, the Golden State Warriors won the NBA championship because they had more depth and versatility than everybody else while also possessing a lethal shooting backcourt. Thanks to their depth and versatility, they were able to go small when they wanted, go big when they wanted, and let Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson go to work from beyond the arc. They didn't change the way the game is played. They merely had the depth and versatility to play the game the way they wanted.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord  and like my Facebook page NBA Lord Nation for NBA news 

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