Could it be déjà vu all over again for the Golden State Warriors?

                                                            (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

The Golden State Warriors find themselves up 3-1 in the NBA Finals and are returning to Oakland after two games in Cleveland. Does that sound familiar? It should. They were in the exact same situation last season and found a way to collapse, dropping the next three games, two of which were at home (Games 5 & 7).

Several people have asked me over the weekend what I think happens on Monday and my response to them has been the same: “I think the Warriors win, but if they lose, things could get scary.” While Game 5 isn’t a “must win” game for the Warriors like it is for the Cavaliers, the Warriors need to treat this game as if it is one. If they lose, they’ll find themselves on a plane back to Cleveland and the very thought of that should scare them considering what happened last year.

If you are a betting man, you have to put your money on the Warriors to win Game 5. The guys in Las Vegas have the Warriors favored by 8.5 points and that feels about right. The Warriors will be at home, they have the superior lineup, and they have the motivation to not let history repeat itself.

As an extension of that, the Warriors are a virtual lock to win the series when you consider that no team has ever come back from an 0-3 hole to win an NBA playoff series. It’s happened in the NHL and MLB, but never in the NBA. The big difference from last year to this year is that last year, the Cavaliers didn’t put themselves in a position where they had to win four straight games to win the series. They trailed 1-3, but never 0-3.

Of course, the real question one must ask is does that really matter knowing what happened last year? Having won Game 4, the Cavaliers find themselves in exactly the same situation as last season, so is it really wise to rule out their championship chances given that no team has come back from an 0-3 hole? Don’t we instead have to now alter the odds from 0% to around the statistical probability of 10%?

The answer is yes we do, but even if we now give the Cavaliers a faint hope of winning the series, the odds of defeating the best team in basketball in a seven games series two years in a row when trailing 1-3 is astronomically low.

The odds are sharply against the Cavaliers in this one. For them to come back from 1-3 two years in a row and become the first team to come back from an 0-3 hole in NBA playoff history would be astounding and monumental. LeBron James would instantly elevate himself into a stratosphere that not even Michael Jordan finds himself in. It would be that remarkable.

As far as whether or not this could be déjà vu for the Warriors all over again, the answer is yes it could, but it doesn’t have to be. The future isn’t predetermined. It is instead the result of a series of events that happen in real-time. If the Warriors make the right plays and do what they’ve been doing all year, which is play team basketball and let everyone share the sugar, I don’t see a way they lose this series. Especially since they’ve added Kevin Durant to the fold. They are a better and improved team from last season.

If on the other hand, the Warriors get tentative, Draymond Green gets ejected, and the Cavaliers play up to their maximum potential, this series could be heading back to Cleveland for a Game 6. LeBron James has a certain superhuman aura about him that makes you never want to count him out even when the odds are stacked against him. In addition, Kyrie Irving has been playing elite basketball and the Cavaliers as a whole seemed to have a breakthrough game of sorts in Game 4.

Going back to what I’ve been telling people this weekend, the bottom line is that I think the Warriors will win Game 5 on Monday. They are the better team, they are at home, and they have last season to draw upon for extra motivation. The Warriors have no excuses to not win Game 5. If by some miracle the Cavaliers find a way to win and get the series back to Cleveland, we will suddenly have a series and nightmares from last season will rightfully come to the forefront of the minds of both the Warriors and their loyal fans.

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