Chris Paul ($24.4M) and Blake Griffin ($21.4M) have both decided to exercise the Early Termination Option on their contracts, which means that they will be unrestricted free agents come July 1st. For both Paul and Griffin, re-signing with the Clippers is the financially smart move to make. The Clippers can re-sign Paul for five years and approximately $200M while other teams can sign him for four years and $150M. As for Griffin, he can re-up with the Clippers for five years and approximately $180M while other teams can offer four years, $130M.
Still, even with the advantage of being able to offer more money, it's no guarantee Paul and Griffin stay with the Clippers. Both guys have made more than enough money and are at a point of their careers where winning a ring is the focus. Especially Paul, who has been in the NBA since 2005. In order for the Clippers to lock up Paul and Griffin for another five years, they'll have to do a good job selling them on their chances of winning championship in Clipperland. Otherwise, both guys might bolt for a change of scenery and better championship odds.
The advantage that both Paul and Griffin have is that they can literally go wherever they want. There has been talk of Chris Paul possibly joining the Spurs while Blake Griffin has been linked to the Celtics. Of course, these are all rumors at this point, but the fact remains that it is no slam dunk they re-sign. Something that should worry the Clippers.
There are four scenarios that can happen here. Each with its own pros and cons.
Scenario #1-Both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin stay: It's entirely possible that both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin decide to re-sign and get back to work on winning a title for the Los Angeles Clippers. They've become the faces of Los Angeles and with a new owner in place, they can feel much more optimistic about the future. For the Clippers, this appears to be the best possible outcome. By keeping Paul and Griffin, they would remain competitive for the short term and continue to be the better team in Los Angeles. There's also the hope that with a few more moves, maybe they can finally get it right and add the pieces necessary to make a serious championship run.
Scenario #2-Chris Paul stays and Blake Griffin goes: There's also the possibility that the Clippers only hang on to one of their two major stars. If it's Paul who stays and Griffin who leaves, this wouldn't be terrible, but not all that great, either. Basically, it would keep the Clippers competitive for the short term, but not as competitive as they've been. They'd become a team that is a 6th or 7th seed in the Western Conference at best and possibly even an 8th seed. With Chris Paul getting older, the Clippers would already have to start thinking about ways to rebuild with Griffin no longer around as their centerpiece for the future.
Scenario #3-Blake Griffin stays and Chris Paul leaves: If the Clippers only hang on to one of these two guys, I think it's more likely that Griffin would be the one to stick around. Paul is in a more desperate situation considering his age, making the lure of going elsewhere stronger for him. With Paul gone, it would firmly become Griffin's team, which wouldn't be a bad thing. By being younger (Rookie class of 2010), Griffin is a better guy to build around for the future. He has five more years on him, creating more time for the Clippers to finally get it right and build a true title contender around him.
Scenario #4-Both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin leave: This is a nightmare scenario that the Clippers have to be prepared to address. The bottom line is that so far, the Chris Paul/Blake Griffin duo has not produced a championship. Doc Rivers hasn't gotten out of them what we all thought and at the end of the day, it just doesn't seem to be working. While they are making the playoffs every year as members of the Clippers, Paul and Griffin are guys who want to win championships and so far, they don't appear to be on track to do so in Los Angeles.
Now is the time for them to get out while they still can. Paul has four to five good years left in him while Griffin could remain an effective power forward for another 10 years. Both guys still have plenty of time to win rings elsewhere. As for what this would mean for the Clippers, this would be devastating. To lose your star duo right as you get new ownership would be nothing short of a major setback. DeAndre Jordan would suddenly be the man and they'd have to scramble to find some quality pieces in free agency to avoid a complete rebuilding season.
When looking at all four of these scenarios, it's clear that July 1st will be a big day for the Los Angeles Clippers. They have to be ready for whatever scenario presents itself and do all they can to not lose the positive momentum that they have been building during these past few years.
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