Tonight at 8:00 PM PST, Cal will take on Arizona State in a battle between two teams that are desperately looking for another PAC-12 win. Cal comes into the game 11-7 overall and just 1-4 in the PAC-12. Arizona State comes into the game 9-9 overall and also 1-4 in the PAC-12. For both teams, tonight is obviously huge, but I will focus on why this game is huge for Cal and what they need to do to win.
There are several reasons why this game is huge for Cal, so let me start with what is most obvious: They are 1-4 in the PAC-12! Cal has to start getting wins in the conference not just to improve their NCAA Tournament resume (which at the moment looks really weak), but also to improve their seeding in the PAC-12 tournament. If Cal wants to have any shot of making the NCAA tournament, they need to have a strong showing in the PAC-12 tournament. If Cal goes into the PAC-12 tournament as a double-digit seed or any seed lower than 8, they'll be in serious trouble and if they lose tonight, a low seed in the PAC-12 tournament will look very likely.
In addition to PAC-12 seeding, Cal has a more immediate or pressing reason to win tonight's game. #7 Arizona is coming to town on Saturday. The Arizona Wildcats play Stanford tonight before making their trip up to the East Bay. Win or lose, Arizona will be motivated to avenge the loss they had last year at Berkeley. Cal has a very winnable game tonight against the Sun Devils, so they better take advantage, because there is no telling what beat down Arizona may have in store for Cal.
I don't mean to be pessimistic about Cal's chances to win on Saturday, but in all truth, I don't expect Cal to repeat what happened last year. Cal needs to get this win tonight because it's a game that they should win. In addition, if Cal wants to beat #7 Arizona on Saturday, they better build some good momentum by beating Arizona State tonight.
Lastly, Cal needs to win tonight's game because in effect, their season is at a crossroads. If they win both games this week, there could be some hope for them to turn their season around. Next week Cal travels to the state of Washington to face the Huskies and the Cougars. Both schools are very beatable, which means wins this weekend could propel Cal towards a four or five game winning streak.
If Cal loses both games this weekend, Cal's season will essentially be in the gutter and only a miraculous run to win the PAC-12 tournament will prevent Cal from missing the NCAA tournament. Putting the NCAA tournament aside, if Cal wants to make a deep run in the NIT, they'll want to get wins this week just to improve their seeding for that tournament.
Getting back to tonight's game, what does Cal need to specifically do to win? The first thing they need to do is make sure Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird, and Jordan Mathews get into a groove early. Those guys are the best scorers on the team and it will be essential for Cal to get them off to a good start. In addition, Cal will need to get David Kravish touches inside and get him some easy looks. In Cal's lone win in the PAC-12 against Washington, Kravish had a huge night, scoring 21 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. I think that pretty much says it all in terms of how important he is to the success of this team.
As for what Arizona State is good at, they have a lot of balance on their team, with four guys ( 6'10 F Eric Jacobsen, 6'6 F Savon Goodman, 6'4 guard Gerry Blakes, and 6'5 guard Shaquille McKissic) scoring in double figures on average every night. Cal will want to keep all four guys under wraps, especially Jacobsen since Cal has had a hard time defending in the paint. If Cal does that and doesn't go stupid offensively, they will win the game.
In conclusion, tonight's game against Arizona State is huge. Cal needs to win this game to get some sort of momentum going to finish the season strong. Cal has reason to believe that they can turnaround their season, but the turnaround has to start tonight. If Cal doesn't get the win tonight, I see no reason to believe that a turnaround will ever come.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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