NBA Lord's NBA Blog

NBA Lord's NBA Blog

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Wednesday Windmill: ESPN should be embarrassed to rank Kevin Durant the 8th best player in the NBA

                                            (Credit: Mark Humphrey of the Associated Press) 

   
 The process of ranking players or people in a particular field whether it be music, sports, or entertainment is always an inexact science. No list can ever be perfect or satisfy everybody, but when a list is done by a group of people who profess to be experts, it is reasonable to expect the list to be more or less agreeable. ESPN has conducted such a list to rank the top players in the NBA and they have made a fool of themselves by ranking Kevin Durant #8 with Kevin Love and Stephen Curry ranked ahead of him.
   
      I wish I could just tell you that ESPN is "trolling" everybody and that they ranked him #8 to create controversy, in which I am a sucker for falling for their joke. But this I do not believe to be the case. I believe that instead of failing at trying to be controversial, ESPN has failed to demonstrate competence at understanding the NBA. This is the only reasonable thing to conclude upon seeing where they have ranked Kevin Durant. 
   
     The biggest argument against ESPN's ranking of Kevin Durant is that Durant won the league MVP last season and in the process led the league in scoring (32.0 ppg). The league MVP award is awarded to the league's "Most Valuable Player" and is voted upon by various sportswriters and people considered "experts" in basketball. To rank the reigning MVP #8 indicates that he shouldn't have won the MVP award last season and that he is overrated. Knowing how good Durant is and how much he deserved the MVP award, it seems absurd to call him overrated and say that he didn't deserve the MVP award. 
     
     So with it being established that Kevin Durant deserved the NBA's MVP award and that he isn't overrated, how exactly can ESPN possibly defend itself? The answer lies in his health. Durant suffered a Jones fracture to his foot which sidelined him until December. ESPN has cited this as a reason for ranking Durant #8 stating: 
     
     "In September, we asked our ESPN Forecast to predict this season's performance for each player, including "both the quality and the quantity of his expected contributions."
According to our forecast, Durant rated as almost a perfect 10. His rating of 9.94 was set to be the best ever for a second-place finisher.
Now? Durant is down to 8.84, putting him behind not just LeBron James but a handful of other, healthier superstars.
By the time the season ends, maybe Durant will reclaim his spot in the top two of the NBA's pecking order. But if we're predicting what his overall impact will be this season, top two is no longer a good bet."
     ESPN argues that his ranking only has to do with his projected production for this season and not where his ability is. The problem with this argument lies in the fact that they use the definition of a word as a cop out. They say that they are really ranking players based on their estimated fantasy points projection or something along those lines instead of ranking them based on their ability or talent level. 
   
      I have several problems with this criteria for ranking players, but I will get to the meat of it and just say that there is more to how good a player is than just their raw statistical production over the course of 82 games. Yeah it's probably true that Kevin Durant won't be a top five player this season in terms of raw statistical production, but is that how we really ought to value a player? 
   
     We value players based on their ability to help their team win games, playoff series', and ultimately championships. That is all we really value players for doing. A player can have the best stats in the NBA and if they can't lead their team to win a playoff series, we call that player selfish or a choke. Durant has proven capable of leading a team to win a playoff series and also leading a team to the NBA Finals. That is how we should be judging players, and his foot fracture won't prevent him from being able to do that once the playoffs come around. 
   
     If we are ranking players based on their ability to lead a team to a championship and come through in the clutch, Kevin Durant is easily the #1 or #2 player in the NBA with only LeBron James ahead of him. Derrick Rose is the one other player who could rival Kevin Durant for the league's #2 spot since he has won an MVP and shown himself capable of taking over games in the same fashion, but since we haven't seen him play for a couple of years it is hard to put him over Durant, though I would not staunchly object to it.

(Note: I wrote this article at the beginning of the season, but I am finally publishing it now. I have made some subtle changes to account for the fact that it is January and not October). 

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

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