One year ago, it would have seemed unfathomable for there to be an article about the Oklahoma City Thunder missing the playoffs, but now odds appear to be at least 50% that they will find themselves on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin. At the moment, they are 10th in the Western Conference with a 23-23 record and 3.5 games back of the 8th seeded Phoenix Suns who are 27-20. What I will do in this article is try to project how things will shake out for that final spot in the Western Conference playoffs looking at the Suns, Pelicans, and Thunder.
By the numbers, the Thunder have an overall record of 23-23, making them 10th in the Western Conference. They are 13-7 at home and an abysmal 10-16 on the road. The good news in all this is that 21 of the Thunder's 36 remaining games are at home. The bad news for the Thunder is that 24 of those remaining 36 games are against teams in the Western Conference, 16 of which are either playoff bound or playoff caliber (e.g. Suns and Pelicans).
The Thunder don't have a ton of games against easy opponents down the stretch, so they better beat all the easy teams that they can, hold serve at home, and get some road wins. Unfortunately, they had a chance on Wednesday to get an easy win against the Knicks and they didn't get it done.
By the numbers, the Pelicans are 24-22, currently 9th in the Western Conference. They are 15-6 at home and 9-16 on the road. Like the Thunder, the Pelicans too have the bulk of their remaining games being played on their home court (20 out of 36). As for the competition, 23 of their remaining games are against teams in the Western Conference, 15 of which are against playoff bound or playoff caliber teams (e.g. Thunder and Suns).
The schedule for the Pelicans is very similar to the schedule of the Thunder. What will be huge are the games against the Thunder on February 4th (vs. OKC) and February 6th (@OKC). The Pelicans might bury the Thunder for good should they win both of those games. Like the Thunder, the Pelicans will want to win all the easy games they have left, defend their home court, and step up their play on the road.
By the numbers, the Suns have an overall record of 27-20, currently possessing the #8 seed in the Western Conference. They are 14-9 at home and 13-11 on the road. Of their remaining 35 games, the Suns will play 18 games at home and 17 games on the road. As for the competition, 25 of their remaining games are against teams in the Western Conference, 18 of which are against teams which are either playoff bound or playoff caliber (e.g. Pelicans and Thunder).
The Suns definitely have a tougher schedule than both the Thunder and the Pelicans. The good news for them is that they have a 3.5 game lead on the Thunder and a 2.5 game lead on the Pelicans. In addition, they face the Pelicans and Thunder a combined four times down the stretch with three of those games being in Phoenix. That's huge. The fact that they are such a good home team and that the Pelicans and Thunder have struggled on the road makes odds very good that the Suns win three out of those four games.
Now that I have broken down the three teams' schedules, I will now state what the playoff odds are for each team.
Phoenix Suns: 53%. At the end of the day, I think the Suns still will hang on to the 8th seed in the West. Having three out of their four remaining games against the Thunder and Pelicans at home is huge as well as the fact that they have a decent lead over both teams for the #8 spot.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 35%. The odds are definitely not in their favor, but it's not at all inconceivable that they make the playoffs. Having 67% of their remaining games at home obviously bodes really well for them as well as the fact that they have guys like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who are used to turning it up down the stretch of the NBA season. However, having to make two more trips to Phoenix is not at all a good thing for this team judging by their weak road play and the Suns' strong play at home.
New Orleans Pelicans: 12%. I hate to lowball the Pelicans since they are seeded higher than the Thunder at the moment, but their lack of playoff experience makes it tough to give them much higher odds. The number of home games remaining works in their favor as does the fact that they have Anthony Davis, who is a superstar in this league.
What I haven't yet mentioned that is critical to their odds of making the playoffs is the fact that Jrue Holiday is out for at least a couple of more weeks due to a stress reaction in his right leg. It will be really hard for the Pelicans to stay the course given his absence.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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