Bear Territory Thursday: Looking ahead to Cal's huge game at Stanford

     Cal will travel to Maples Pavilion on Saturday to take on Stanford in a game that is huge for both teams. Cal enters the game 16-10 overall and 6-7 in the PAC-12 while Stanford enters the game 16-9 overall and 7-6 in the PAC-12. Ironically, after it appeared as though both schools were heading in opposite directions, they now find themselves in almost exactly the same position. For Stanford, a win could vault them to a top-four seed in the PAC-12. For Cal, a win gets them back in the mix to maybe land a top-four seed in the PAC-12 tournament.

     The top four seeds in the PAC-12 tournament get first round byes, an advantage that both Cal and Stanford would love to have. Given that Utah and Arizona are locked into the top-two spots and UCLA likely the #3 spot, it's unlikely that Stanford and Cal both get first round byes in the PAC-12 tournament. That's what makes Saturday's game so huge. Both teams are in desperate need of improving their positioning for the PAC-12 tournament and only one of them can get a bye.

     As far as at-large bids for the NCAA tournament are concerned, Cal and Stanford need this win. In order to have a shot at the big dance, Cal needs to win against Stanford on Saturday, hold serve at home the following week against Oregon and Oregon State, and then get a split on the road against Arizona and Arizona State. In addition, they'll also need a strong showing in the PAC-12 tournament, which is why that #4 seed is huge.

     As for Stanford, a loss against Cal would be very bad. Stanford has had the win at Texas as sort of a "signature win" to have in their back pocket, but now that Texas is unranked, that win suddenly doesn't mean as much. In addition, their win over UConn doesn't amount to much since UConn is also unranked and just 14-10 overall. Despite having a stronger start to their season, Stanford appears to be just as much in need of quality wins as Cal.

   
     What helps Cal is that they got the split in the Rocky Mountains by beating Colorado, whereas Stanford got swept by both Colorado and Utah. Cal is coming into this game having won five of their last six games, whereas Stanford is coming into the game having lost four of their last five. Cal definitely has found its groove as of late whereas Stanford appears to have lost theirs.

     A big factor in the polarizing directions that both teams have taken is that Cal sophomore shooting guard Jabari Bird is now healthy after suffering a stress reaction in his foot and Stanford freshman forward Reid Travis is just recovering from a stress reaction in his leg. Bird is finding his groove, scoring 21 points against Utah and 16 points against UCLA, whereas Travis has been held scoreless in the last two games. Both players are important to their respective teams and it has shown in recent games.

     If Cal wants to beat Stanford on Saturday, there are four things they need to do: Get point guard Tyrone Wallace into a groove, get solid production off the bench, keep Stanford off the glass, and slow down Stanford senior point guard Chasson Randle.

     Tyrone Wallace is the heart and soul of this Cal team. He does everything for them. He scores, dishes assists, rebounds, and plays good defense. If he doesn't have a big game, there is no way Cal can win. In addition, if Cal wants to get other players going like Jabari Bird and Jordan Mathews on the wing as well as David Kravish in the post, they need to have Tyrone Wallace attacking the basket and making plays.

     Cal also needs solid production off the bench. When guys like Brandon Chauca, Dwight Tarwater, and Sam Singer get into a rhythm, Cal suddenly has a really scary eight man rotation. When those guys aren't on their game, Cal really struggles since they start asking a lot from their starting five.

     Keeping Stanford off the glass will be huge. Reid Travis who I mentioned is a banger inside as is  Stanford center Stefan Nastic. Cal has had problems defending inside, so it will be huge for them to grab as many rebounds as they can, limiting the opportunities for those guys to get buckets inside.

     Last but certainly not least, Cal has to make sure Chasson Randle doesn't have a big game. In a press conference regarding Saturday's game, Cal head coach Cuonzo Martin said about Chasson Randle: "He hits big shots. We need to limit his touches, play him aggressive, and fight through those ball screens."  Martin recognizes that keeping Randle quiet is key and they have to especially lock down on him in crunch time.

     As for what Stanford needs to do to win this game, they need to make sure Cal doesn't succeed at doing the things I said they need to do. If Stanford can keep Tyrone Wallace quiet, limit Cal's bench production, dominate on the glass, and have Chasson Randle steal the show, they'll win the game. It's that simple.

     As far as what my prediction is, I think Cal is going to win. I'm not just saying that because I'm a Cal graduate and a passionate fan. I'm saying that because of the recent trends I've seen from both teams over the last five games. Cal has their swagger back and has a ton of confidence coming into this game. The same cannot be said for Stanford, who is limping into this game.

     While it is true that Stanford will be extra motivated to defend their home floor, I do believe that Cal has just as much motivation given that they lost to Stanford at home earlier this year. Cal wants to get some revenge and if anything hurt Stanford's NCAA tournament resume. The motivation is there for both teams to win, and so I'm going with Cal because they come into this game with more momentum and confidence. Go Bears!

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord