The Toronto Raptors have already been without their star point guard Kyle Lowry (wrist surgery) for six games and they won't get him back until the playoffs. At this point in time, the Raptors are 37-26 overall and currently in possession of the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Raptors are currently 6 games back of the #1 seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and 2.5 games up on the #5 seeded Atlanta Hawks.
The big question that's on everybody's mind about the Raptors is whether or not they can survive until Lowry gets back. When addressing this question, what needs to be defined is what is meant by "survive." If the Raptors give up home court advantage in the first round but still make the playoffs, I wouldn't say they exactly "survived" the absence of Kyle Lowry since it is essential to their playoff success that they hang on to home court advantage for the first round. As far as the Raptors are concerned, "surviving" is hanging on to home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
So, with that now established, what we are really asking is "Can the Raptors hang on to home court advantage without Kyle Lowry?" Given that the Hawks are their only real competition, I think odds are good that they can. They're certainly in the drivers seat to do so and so far are 4-2 without Lowry, indicating that they should be able to play above .500 ball until he gets back.
When looking at the Raptors' roster, one of the things that helps is that they have a very good backup point guard in Cory Joseph who should be able to run the offense until Lowry returns. Joseph is averaging 8.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game and won an NBA championship with the San Antonio Spurs in 2014. While he is no Kyle Lowry, Joseph is one of the better reserve point guards in the NBA and should have no trouble keeping things afloat until Lowry returns.
In addition to having a quality backup point guard to fill in, the Raptors still have DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging a team-high 27.6 points per game. DeRozan is one of the top scorers in the NBA and should have no problem carrying the scoring load during this last stretch. While it would be asking too much of DeRozan to carry the team deep into the playoffs without Lowry, asking him to keep the team at the #4 spot until the playoffs is not asking too much.
Lastly, the presence of Serge Ibaka helps tremendously. With Ibaka on board, the Raptors have added another legitimate scoring option and also one of the best shot blockers in the NBA. Serge Ibaka is used to having to be one of the top scorers on the teams that he plays on and so he should have no trouble having an expanded role on the offense until Lowry returns. As far as the defense is concerned, with or without Kyle Lowry, the presence of Serge Ibaka makes the Raptors one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. I think defensively, the Raptors will be just fine without Kyle Lowry and should be able to win a lot of games based on their improved defense alone.
When looking at all of these factors, I think it's pretty clear that the Toronto Raptors should still be able to hang on to the #4 spot in the Eastern Conference standings and clinch home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They have a quality backup point guard, an elite scorer, and a new power forward that gives them another scoring option and a much improved defense.
The schedule also isn't too bad, either. Of the Raptors' 19 remaining games, 10 of them are on the road, so it isn't as if there is a huge home-away imbalance. The game on March 10th at Atlanta will be big, but I think that even if the Raptors drop that game, they'll still find a way to hang on to the #4 seed. They're doing pretty well without Kyle Lowry so far and there's really no reason to not expect them to continue to do well until he returns.
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