At the moment, the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are engaged in an epic series that is tied 2-2. The home team has won every game, which means we're on track for a Game 7 in Milwaukee. While these two teams fight for Eastern Conference supremacy, the Golden State Warriors are relaxing and waiting to see who they'll face in the NBA Finals. Given how dominant the Warriors have been, it's fair to ask whether or not it matters who they'll face. What I want to do in this blog post is quickly breakdown what threat each team poses and what the odds are that they actually take out the Warriors.
Starting with the Bucks, one thing they'll have to their advantage should they reach the NBA Finals is home court advantage (the Raptors will have this as well). Should they win Game 1 of the series, they'll have around 85% odds to win the series and should the series go to a Game 7, they'll have around 80% odds to win. These numbers are based on NBA playoff history as a whole. I wasn't able to find the exact numbers for the NBA Finals. Whatever the exact numbers are, the bottom line is having home court advantage is nice. If you can defend home court in Game 1, history says you'll win. If you host a Game 7 on your home floor, history also says you'll win.
Aside from the home court, the Bucks do have perhaps the best player in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is a matchup nightmare for whatever team they face. The Warriors will have a difficult time taking out the Bucks because of Giannis alone. He handles the ball extremely well in transition, can play multiple positions, and is exactly what his nickname bills him to be. He's a freak.
When you add guys like Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon, Eric Bledsoe, Nikola Mirotic, Khris Middleton, and George Hill to the mix, you have a team that's going to be a tough out. This Bucks teams has a lot of depth and that more than anything could make the difference.
As for the Raptors, aside from the home court advantage that I touched on earlier, it all boils down to whether or not Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy. If he's healthy, they got a shot. Especially since they have a solid supporting cast of their own in Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, Danny Green, and Fred VanVleet. Leonard is also in discussion for best player in the game and when he gets going, the Raptors should feel like they can beat any team in the league.
I still have my money on the Warriors to win the NBA championship, but it's not going to be easy. They'll have to go on the road and win in very hostile environments to get home court advantage on their side. The best thing they can hope for is that this series goes the distance and that their opponent will be fatigued and a bit banged up from the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now what you're probably hoping for is my prediction for this Bucks-Raptors series. I think it could go either way, but I still have the Bucks pulling it out. They have home court advantage on their side and I have a tough time seeing the Raptors win four straight games. This one is probably going the distance and in a Game 7, you gotta roll with the home team.
To connect with NBA Lord on Twitter, click here.
To connect with NBA Lord on Facebook, click here.
To connect with Ben Parker, click here.
No comments:
Post a Comment