Wednesday Windmill: Can either the Milwaukee Bucks or Toronto Raptors take out the Golden State Warriors?

At the moment, the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are engaged in an epic series that is tied 2-2. The home team has won every game, which means we're on track for a Game 7 in Milwaukee. While these two teams fight for Eastern Conference supremacy, the Golden State Warriors are relaxing and waiting to see who they'll face in the NBA Finals. Given how dominant the Warriors have been, it's fair to ask whether or not it matters who they'll face. What I want to do in this blog post is quickly breakdown what threat each team poses and what the odds are that they actually take out the Warriors.

Starting with the Bucks, one thing they'll have to their advantage should they reach the NBA Finals is home court advantage (the Raptors will have this as well). Should they win Game 1 of the series, they'll have around 85% odds to win the series and should the series go to a Game 7, they'll have around 80% odds to win. These numbers are based on NBA playoff history as a whole. I wasn't able to find the exact numbers for the NBA Finals. Whatever the exact numbers are, the bottom line is having home court advantage is nice. If you can defend home court in Game 1, history says you'll win. If you host a Game 7 on your home floor, history also says you'll win.

Aside from the home court, the Bucks do have perhaps the best player in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is a matchup nightmare for whatever team they face. The Warriors will have a difficult time taking out the Bucks because of Giannis alone. He handles the ball extremely well in transition, can play multiple positions, and is exactly what his nickname bills him to be. He's a freak.

When you add guys like Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon, Eric Bledsoe, Nikola Mirotic, Khris Middleton, and George Hill to the mix, you have a team that's going to be a tough out. This Bucks teams has a lot of depth and that more than anything could make the difference.

As for the Raptors, aside from the home court advantage that I touched on earlier, it all boils down to whether or not Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy. If he's healthy, they got a shot. Especially since they have a solid supporting cast of their own in Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, Danny Green, and Fred VanVleet. Leonard is also in discussion for best player in the game and when he gets going, the Raptors should feel like they can beat any team in the league.

I still have my money on the Warriors to win the NBA championship, but it's not going to be easy. They'll have to go on the road and win in very hostile environments to get home court advantage on their side. The best thing they can hope for is that this series goes the distance and that their opponent will be fatigued and a bit banged up from the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now what you're probably hoping for is my prediction for this Bucks-Raptors series. I think it could go either way, but I still have the Bucks pulling it out. They have home court advantage on their side and I have a tough time seeing the Raptors win four straight games. This one is probably going the distance and in a Game 7, you gotta roll with the home team.

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Wednesday Windmill: It's officially time to Fear the Deer

"Fear the Deer" is the mantra of the Milwaukee Bucks and while fun to say, it has been hard to take seriously over the years. This year is different, though. With the best record in the NBA (32-12) and also the best home record in the NBA (20-4), the Bucks are finally a team to be feared. Especially by those in the Eastern Conference. 

The secret to the Bucks' success begins and ends with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 26.4 points, 12.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.4 steals per game on 58.0% shooting from the field and 70.0% shooting from the foul line. What's scary is that he's shooting an abysmal 17.0% from 3-point range. Once he gets that part figured out, it's gonna be lights out for the rest of the NBA. 

                                          (Credit: Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

Accompanying the "Greek Freak" are Khris Middleton (17.5 points & 5.8 rebounds), Malcolm Brogdon (15.5 points & 4.6 rebounds), and Eric Bledsoe (15.3 points & 5.6 assists), who are all very talented scorers. While not the flashiest of players, they're very consistent and always bring it every night, contributing to the Bucks' consistent play. When you combine an elite superstar with solid role players, you have a recipe for success. 

When looking at their team stats, what makes the Bucks good is their efficiency. They rank 4th in the NBA in field goal percentage (48.0%), 2nd in 3-point field goals (13.4), 1st in rebounds (49.1) and 5th in assists (26.7). For those that like advanced stats, the Bucks rank 6th in pace (102.7), 2nd in true shooting percentage (58.5%), 2nd in effective field goal percentage (55.3%), 4th in offensive rating (114.0), tied for 1st in defensive rating (104.3), and 1st in Pythagorean wins (34.0). 

In case any of that jargon confuses you, the bottom line is this Bucks team is really good. They're young, fearless, and they have the best up and coming player in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the way they're playing, they have to be considered the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference and challenge the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. In the past, "Fear the Deer" has just been a fun thing to say, but this year, it's no joke. 

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Saturday Slam: Will Eric Bledsoe find new life with the Milwaukee Bucks?

                                          (Photo credit: NBA.com)

The big news of the week was the Phoenix Suns trading Eric Bledsoe to the Milwaukee Bucks for Greg Monroe, a protected 2018 1st round draft pick, and a 2018 protected 2nd round draft pick. Bledsoe made it clear on social media that he wanted out of Phoenix and the Suns granted his request.

Bledsoe is in his 8th season in the NBA and is now with his third team, spending his first three years with the Los Angeles Clippers and his next four years with the Phoenix Suns before being traded to the Bucks.

As the 18th overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, Bledsoe has blossomed into one of the better point guards in the NBA, having back-to-back 20+ points per game seasons in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. His biggest issue over the last couple of seasons has been staying healthy, suffering a torn meniscus in the 2015-16 season, allowing him to only play in 31 games. Last season, he was able to play in 66 games, but once again had his season shortened due to knee soreness.

Now that he is in Milwaukee, Bledsoe is hoping for a fresh start with a team that has a chance to do some damage in the playoffs. Bledsoe never made the playoffs with the Suns and with the current direction they are going in, it wasn't clear if he would be able to get back to the playoffs if he stayed in Phoenix for the long hall.

As far as whether or not Bledsoe will find new life in Milwaukee, he certainly has the chance to do so if he is able to stay healthy and if the Bucks in turn are able to get back to full strength with a healthy Jabari Parker. With Giannis Antetokounmpo at the helm, the Bucks have the pieces to do some serious damage in the Eastern Conference. It's just a matter of building on the foundation that they have and making sure no major injuries happen.

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Skyhook Sunday: The Phoenix Suns are exploding

Earlier today, news broke that the Phoenix Suns fired their head coach Earl Watson after their 0-3 start, which consisted of two 40+ point losses to the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers. To make things even worse, their star point guard Eric Bledsoe appeared to request a trade, stating that he "doesn't want to be" in Phoenix.

I Dont wanna be here

— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) October 22, 2017

There's really no way to paint a pretty picture of what's going on here. To have your head coach fired and your star player demand a trade on the same day is not a good thing. Especially when you've been getting blown off the court.

Probably the main thing to look for at this point is what the Suns do with Bledsoe. If he wants out, they should seriously explore moving him. At the same time, they shouldn't be in any hurry to move him. He doesn't hit unrestricted free agency until the summer of 2019, so it's not like he'll be gone after the season if they trade him. They could also explore moving a couple of other veteran pieces like Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley to help them rebuild for the future.

At this point, the best thing the Suns can do is just try to calm the waters and bring some sense of normalcy to the locker room. It will be up to interim head coach Jay Triano to make this happen. The Suns are behaving like a team that is 0-20, when in all reality they have plenty of time to turn this season around and not have it turn into a total dumpster fire.

Note: For more insight on the Suns' decision to fire Earl Watson, watch the video below by Phoenix Suns expert Brandon Condron. 



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Saturday Slam: How big of a blow is Brandon Knight's ACL injury to the Phoenix Suns?

Earlier this week, it was revealed that Phoenix Suns point guard Brandon Knight suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during a pro-am game. Due to the nature of the injury, it is anticipated that Knight will miss the 2017-18 season after undergoing surgery.

On the surface, this appears to be a pretty significant blow to the Suns. Knight's name has been frequently mentioned as one of the rising stars in the league. He averaged 19.6 points and 5.1 assists per game for the Suns in the 2015-16 season and was billed as a cornerstone piece of the franchise when he was acquired from the Milwaukee Bucks.

                                          (Yahoo! Sports) 

After having what appeared to be a breakout season in his 2015-16 campaign, Knight has since struggled to replicate that same type of success, largely due to injury. Last season, he played in only 54 games and averaged 11.0 points and 2.4 assists per game. He only saw 21.1 minutes of action per game and never was able to get into a rhythm. Now that Knight has suffered a torn ACL on top of the struggles he had last season, it's fair to question whether or not he'll ever return to his former self.

As far as what this means for the Suns, this is a significant blow in the sense that they acquired Knight with the hopes of becoming one of their franchise players and he is clearly not living up to the hype. What also is unfortunate for them is that Knight is scheduled to make $13.6M in the 2017-18 season, $14.6M in the 2018-19 season, and $15.6M in the 2019-20 season before hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. It'll be hard for them to move a guy whose contract requires teams to pay him more with each season.

On the flip side, it's not like the Suns are holding their breath on Knight being their franchise player for the future. Guards Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe, both of whom scored over 20 points per game last season, are viewed as the franchise centerpieces for the future along with rookie small forward Josh Jackson. The Suns can continue to build around those guys and focus their attention on getting them the pieces that they need to succeed.

Ultimately, the loss of Brandon Knight is significant for the Suns because they've invested a lot of money into him and have him under contract for the next three seasons. When you acquire a guy with the hopes of him being a franchise centerpiece and he doesn't deliver, that always stings. The good new for the Suns is that they have Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe to build around in the backcourt instead. They're already used to playing without Knight and appear to already be preparing for the future with him not in the picture. What would soften the blow even more is if the Suns could find a team willing to roll the dice on him, but at this point, the odds of that happening appear to be pretty low.

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Wednesday Windmill: The Phoenix Suns are exploding

     The Phoenix Suns have gone from being one of the up and coming teams in the NBA to a team that is on the verge of exploding. They are 12th in the Western Conference with a 12-21 record and are currently dealing with injury, coaching woes, and drama in the locker room. Any of those three things can hurt an NBA team's season, but when all three are happening to a team, it's a sign that things are going really bad.

     On the injury front, the Suns have lost their star combo guard Eric Bledsoe for the season due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. Bledsoe was having his best season in the NBA, averaging 20.4 points per game, 6.1 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. With Bledsoe now done of the season, it'll be up to their other star guard Brandon Knight to keep the already sinking ship afloat.

     But, remember what I said in the opening paragraph. The Suns have coaching and locker room issues in addition to Eric Bledsoe's season-ending injury. The coaching issues came to our knowledge when the team fired assistant coaches Mike Longabardi and Jerry Sichting earlier in the week. Earl Watson and Nate Bjorkgren were promoted to fill their roles, indicating that Jeff Hornacek's job as head coach is safe for the time being.

     As for drama in the locker room, Markieff Morris was suspended two games for throwing a towel at head coach Jeff Hornacek after the team's loss to the Denver Nuggets. Morris' blowup on the bench indicates that things internally are not going well for the team, either. While it's possible that Morris' act was rogue, it certainly seems to indicate that inside the locker room, things aren't going well for the Suns in addition to their struggles on the court.

     The only good news for the Phoenix Suns right now is that despite their struggles, they are still just 3 games back of the Utah Jazz for the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs. It's certainly possible that they right the ship and find a way to sneak into the playoffs. But even if they do, without Eric Bledsoe, there is little to no hope of them getting out of the first round of the playoffs. With him gone, they have virtually no chance at making noise in the playoffs.

     This doesn't mean that they should pack it up and tank like the Philadelphia 76ers. They still have lots to play for in terms of building momentum for next season and ending their season on somewhat of a high note. If they were to make the playoffs, that would serve as such a high note and give them optimism that at full strength, they could be a team to make some noise in the 2016-17 season.

     Still, even with all of that as something to shoot for, it's very alarming that they have fired a couple of assistants and had one of their players have a temper tantrum on the bench. These are usually the signs of a team that is going to get a lot worse before they get better.

     What alarms me the most is that there were no signs of this kind of thing happening two months ago. I thought of the Suns as a well-managed team that was on the rise with a quality head coach. For Jeff Hornacek to suddenly be on the hot seat and for things to be on the verge of exploding just goes to show how fragile things can be in the NBA.

Wednesday Windmill: Does Eric Bledsoe deserve a max contract?

                                              (credit: clipperblog.com) 

With Greg Monroe signing a one year contract with the Pistons to make himself an unrestricted free agent next summer, all eyes are now on Eric Bledsoe, the Suns' restricted free agent point guard who is calling for a max-deal. The opinions about Bledsoe's value are mixed. Some believe he is worth a max deal and others do not. LeBron James is one of the opinion that Bledsoe does deserve a max contract, saying:

"Great work today lil bro @ebled2 (Bledsoe's Instagram account)!! Future All-Star in this league in no time. PHX break bread. #Klutch #Work #GymRats #StriveForGreatness."

Obviously, having LeBron James support your call for a max contract gives you plenty of leverage, but that doesn't mean that you actually deserve one. Upon looking at his numbers, I don't think Bledsoe is deserving of a max contract right now, especially from the Suns who already have plenty of depth at point guard with Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas.

Last season, Bledsoe averaged 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.6 steals, and 3.3 turnovers per game. At just 24 years of age, those are very impressive numbers, but nothing worth giving max money to. Especially since this is his first season producing at that level (the previous year he averaged 8.5 points and 3.1 assists per game in 20.4 minutes of playing time with the Clippers).

I personally think the only players deserving of max contracts are guys who have shown that they are capable of leading a team deep into the playoffs. These kinds of players include guys like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Tony Parker, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.  Bledsoe may one day join the ranks of players like that, but he isn't there yet. Until he shows that he is one of those kind of players, his call for a max-contract will come off as unwarranted and selfish.

What's worse for him is that he has turned down a 4 year, $48M offer from the Suns, which already is a very good contract for a player of his stature. By turning that down, Bledsoe really does come off as a selfish player who cares only about himself and not his team. I understand that Bledsoe wants to be paid what he is worth, but his demands for a max-contract far exceed what he is actually worth at this time.

The Suns' 4 year, $48M offer is a deal he should have taken because it values him appropriately. He is a talented enough player to have faith in as a potential building block for a contender, but he hasn't done enough to indicate that he can be the centerpiece of a franchise.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord