Tomahawk Tuesday: What are the odds we see a Warriors-Celtics NBA Finals rematch?

 

                                             (Credit: Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports) 

The NBA regular season tips off tonight with both NBA Finals teams playing, though not against each other. The Boston Celtics squared off against the Philadelphia 76ers while the Golden State Warriors faced the Los Angeles Lakers. The NBA obviously wanting to feature both of their NBA Finals teams on opening night. In this blog post, I want to address the possibility that we see a rematch of last year's NBA Finals with the Warriors and Celtics facing each other for a second straight year. 

What helps to boost the odds of both teams facing off is the fact that they have their core rosters back. The Warriors with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. The Celtics with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford. When you bring back a core group that got to the NBA Finals the season before, your odds of getting back are as good as they can get. 

The second thing that helps boost the odds is that the Warriors in particular have been through this rodeo many times before. They've represented the Western Conference in six of the last eight NBA Finals and won four of those six trips. They know what it takes to get back to the NBA Finals. For the Celtics, this is a new journey for them. Whether or not they have what it takes to get back for a second straight year remains to be seen, but if you look at the way things are trending, there's good reason to think they can get back again. 

Aside from injuries, which is always the biggest hurdle to teams getting back to the NBA Finals, probably the biggest hurdle/reason for doubt is the chaos that has surrounded the departure of Celtics head coach Ime Udoka. He was having an improper relationship with a member of the Celtics organization. Whether or not Joe Mazzulla can fill in and guide the Celtics back to the NBA Finals is a big question mark for the Celtics right now. If he can, odds are good Udoka's time in Boston is over. 

On the Warriors side, probably their biggest hurdle is just father time. Curry, Thompson, and Green are all getting older. It's tough to keep playing in June year in and year out and it's possible this last championship was more of a final second wind for the group. But, if there's any group that could navigate this, it's the Warriors. Head coach Steve Kerr does a good job of resting his guys and keeping the eye on the prize. They also have some talented young players who can fill in and take the load off until playoff time. 

Ultimately, if I had to bet on it, I would say we likely won't see both teams back in the NBA Finals in 2023 only because it's just so hard to get back. The Warriors are getting older and it's unclear if they can handle the grind once more while with the Celtics, it's unclear if Mazzulla can get the job done. That said, it wouldn't shock me if we saw a rematch, either. The Warriors do have a lot of experience and the Celtics having now gotten a taste of the NBA Finals are going to be more seasoned and experienced. It'll certainly be fun to see how both teams do and which team does better at getting back for a second straight year. 

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Remembering Bill Russell

 

                                              (Credit: Bill Chaplis/Associated Press) 

On July 31st, the game of basketball lost a legend in Bill Russell, who passed away at the age of 88. Russell played at McClymonds High School in Oakland, California before playing four years at the University of San Francisco (1953-56). After leading the Dons to two national championships in 1955 and 1956, Russell was selected with the number two overall pick by the St. Louis Hawks in the 1956 NBA Draft. Russell was then traded to the Boston Celtics for six-time All-Star Ed Macauley and Cliff Hagan, who was yet to play an NBA game due to military service. The rest as they say is history: 

Russell won 11 NBA championships with the Celtics to go along with five NBA MVPs, 12 All-Star game appearances, four rebounding championships, and various All-NBA honors. Russell also won his last two NBA championships as player-coach, which only enhances his already godly state in the game. 

Russell is basketball royalty and as such has become the first player to have his number retired by the entire NBA. Once all the current players who wear the number 6 (e.g. LeBron James) retire or switch their numbers, the number 6 will no longer be worn by another NBA player again. This is what happened with Jackie Robinson in major league baseball. The final player to wear the number 42 was Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees, who wore the number at the time major league baseball retired Robinson's number league-wide. Rivera was allowed to keep his number 42 until he retired after the 2013 season. 

When talking about the greatest basketball players of all-time, Russell is frequently mentioned right at the top along with Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Magic Johnson. If I were to create my own "Mount Rushmore" of basketball players it would include those three players along with Russell. 

The reason why Russell makes the list is the fact that he won more NBA championships than any other player in league history. He won an NBA championship in 84.6% of the 13 seasons he played. That's insane. What made Russell so prolific in his winning is the fact that he truly put his team above everything else. He didn't care about personal stats. He cared about doing whatever his team needed him to do. He was willing to do the dirty work: Rebound, block shots, and make plays for others. When you combine that kind of mentality with a player who was as gifted as Russell, you get the kind of championship productivity that he had. 

On top of being a phenomenal basketball player, Russell was a phenomenal person. He was a civil rights activist and was a major force for good in the African-American community. He was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Barack Obama in 2011, celebrating his contributions and legacy. 

When looking back on the life and legacy of Bill Russell, it's clear that he's left an impact that will never be matched by anyone else to ever play or coach the game of basketball. While that can be said of many of the all-time greats, Russell truly left a special and enduring mark on the game that will be felt for generations to come. By having his number 6 retired by the NBA, his flame will flicker forever as a symbol of what it means to be a champion and more importantly, what greatness really is. 

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Saturday Slam: The evolution of Jaylen Brown

                                              (Credit: Michael Dwyer/Associated Press) 

Before my current position as publisher of CardinalSportsReport.com, covering all things Stanford for the Rivals network, I covered Cal basketball for GoldenBearReport.com, Rivals' Cal affiliate site. My first season covering Cal was Jaylen Brown's freshman year, giving me a chance to cover him up close. I got to watch him practice when he first got to Berkeley, I got to be in attendance for his first media session all the way through his final game in the NCAA tournament, in which Cal got upset by Hawaii as a #4 seed in their region. 

Being totally honest, I was a bit surprised Brown went #3 overall to the Boston Celtics in the 2016 NBA Draft after just one year at Cal. Not because I didn't think he had the talent. The talent was obviously there. But just because he seemed to still have a lot of growth and maturation to undergo. I just wasn't certain if he was going to become an NBA All-Star level talent. My doubts have certainly been quieted and Brown has established himself as one of the top players in the NBA, playing a major role on a Celtics team that finds themselves tied 2-2 in the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors, the best team of this generation. 

In his freshman year at Cal, Brown averaged 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 3.1 turnovers per game in 27.6 minutes per game. He shot 43.1% from the field, 29.4% from 3-point range, and 65.4% from the foul line. This past season with the Celtics, his 6th season in the NBA, Brown averaged 23.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2.7 turnovers per game in 33.6 minutes per game. He shot 47.3% from the field, 35.8% from 3-point range, and 75.8% from the foul line. 

When looking at his numbers, what really jumps out is how much better of a shooter Brown has become.  At Cal, he was not a reliable 3-point shooter or foul shooter. Now, the interesting thing is when watching him in practice at Cal, it looked like he couldn't miss. So, I think a lot of this comes down to just getting more comfortable and confident in game situations. He was a good shooter back at Cal. He just didn't have the confidence yet. 

Now, he has found out how to translate his excellent in-practice shooting to the game and that has really been the biggest difference. That may sound like a small thing to figure out, but there are so many guys who look good in practice but for whatever reason cannot put it together in the game. The fact that Brown has figured this out is huge and no small feat. 

Brown always had the physical tools to be an elite NBA player. That was obvious when he was at Cal. Look up his dunk against Oregon State. It remains one of the most amazing dunks I've seen college or pro. It was just a matter of him figuring out how to become a better overall player and polishing his game. The rate at which he has polished his game and honed his craft is what makes his evolution so incredible. 

In addition to evolving as a basketball player, Brown has evolved as a person as well. At Cal, he was very quiet, reserved, and thoughtful. He also was very bright and articulate. One of the brightest athletes I've ever covered. With the Celtics, he has learned how to channel his intelligence and thoughtfulness into championing causes for social justice and being a voice for his people back in the Atlanta, Georgia area. He certainly is a guy who has big plans for himself outside of the game of basketball. 

In closing, I just want to quickly say it has been a lot of fun watching Jaylen Brown evolve from his first days in Berkeley to an All-Star playing for the Boston Celtics on basketball's biggest stage. It's fun to reflect on my times interviewing him and talking with him after games and practices and just seeing how far he has come. Even more fun is to think about how much farther he will go in the coming years both on and off the court. 

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2022 NBA Finals Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

 

                                             Credit: Getty Images/TSN

Tonight, the 2022 NBA Finals tip-off in San Francisco with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Boston Celtics. The Warriors come in having taken out the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the Western Conference Finals while the Celtics snuck past the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, winning the series in seven games. 

The Warriors come into this series as the seasoned NBA Finals veterans having won three NBA championships in 2015, 2017, and 2018 while also reaching the NBA Finals in 2016 and 2019. As for the Celtics, while their franchise historically is tied with the Los Angeles Lakers with most NBA titles (17), this current Celtics group is new to this big of a stage. 

Stephen Curry (25.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, & 6.3 assists) is the leader of this Warriors team, playing some of the best basketball of his entire career. While Kevin Durant is no longer on the team, the Warriors have picked up right where they left off before he even joined them in the first place. They're looking like the Warriors team that won in 2015 with Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins forming a solid core around Curry. 

As for the Celtics, Jayson Tatum (26.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, & 4.4 assists) leads the charge along with Jaylen Brown (23.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, & 3.5 assists). The two of them form a really dynamic wing duo that is very difficult to stop. They too have a solid cast around them in Dennis Schröder, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford. 

As for what's going to determine this series, I think a lot of this comes down to whether or not the Warriors play a clean, efficient series or not and whether or not the Celtics will be able to force them into playing sloppy basketball. The Warriors are the more experienced team. If they play their best basketball, they're going to win this series. However, they sometimes have lulls or moments where they are sloppy and not playing their best. If the Celtics can take advantage of those moments and play a clean, efficient series on their end, this series could get interesting. 

For the Warriors, Curry is going to need to come up big and have an NBA Finals MVP-level performance. They cannot expect to win this series if he isn't playing at his best. He really is the engine that makes this Warriors team go. As for the Celtics, they need Brown and Tatum to be on their game. If those two guys are balling out, the Celtics have a chance. 

Prediction: I got the Warriors winning this series in six games. They have championship experience and know what it takes to win an NBA championship. I think the Celtics will do enough to take a couple games of the series, but when it's all said and done, the Warriors will be the ones lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Stephen Curry will also take home his first NBA Finals MVP award. 

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Wednesday Windmill: The Boston Celtics sent a message to the Los Angeles Lakers

On Martin Luther King Day, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Los Angeles Lakers 139-107. It was Kemba Walker's first win against LeBron James (he was 0-28 against James before Monday night) and the most lopsided victory in the regular season series between the two teams since the 1960s. That's kind of mind blowing considering there was a time when the Lakers were really good and the Celtics were trash. Anyone remember the Rick Pitino Celtics years?

Anyways, Pitino is in Greece coaching Panathinaikos, so I don't need to write more about him. What I want to write about is the statement win the Celtics had on MLK Day. Was it a statement win? If you ask me, it most certainly was. Jaylen Brown's dunk on LeBron James (click here to check that out) was absolutely FILTHY. And I'm not just saying that because he went to Cal. That alone made it a statement win along with the fact that it was a 32 point win.

#Celtics SF Jaylen Brown threw it down on LeBron James on #MLKDay... https://t.co/ta1OhgbLHy #NBA

— NBA Lord (@nba_lord) January 22, 2020

Of course, this is just one game and the Celtics need to make sure this game isn't just a one-hit wonder for them. They need to make sure they can build off this win and become more of a force in the Eastern Conference. At the moment, they are 28-14, which is 4th in the East and 9.5 games back of the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks. They definitely have their work cut out for them. Still, you gotta start somewhere. If you're trying to establish yourself as a legit contender, blowing out the top team in the West isn't a bad place to start.

Looking at the big picture for a moment, what remains to be seen is if the Celtics will stand pat at the trade deadline or if they'll make a move. Their front court is a bit iffy, so perhaps they'll move one of their guards to shore up their front court. I know the Pistons are open to moving Andre Drummond. Maybe the Celtics will explore that option.

Ultimately, this win will either be the start of something great for the Celtics or it will just be one win that doesn't have much bearing on the rest of the season. Personally, I'm gonna roll the dice a bit and say that this win propels the Celtics to bigger and better things. I'm not saying they win the East, but after what we saw, I don't see why they can't be in the conference finals.

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Wednesday Windmill: Are the Boston Celtics taking a big risk on Jaylen Brown?

                                          (Credit: John Tlumacki-The Boston Globe) 

Earlier this week, it was announced that the Boston Celtics and fourth-year small forward Jaylen Brown agreed on a four-year, $115M contract extension. The deal was reached after Brown initially turned down a four-year, $80M extension, citing a belief that he could earn more in the open market. Brown's decision to turn down the Celtics' initial offer paid off handsomely for him as he earned another $35M.

While this deal is clearly good for Brown, what's up for debate right now is whether or not this deal is good for the Celtics. They already have Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward signed to max contracts and third-year small forward Jayson Tatum likely demanding a big contract a year from now. They have a logjam at small forward and it stands to reason that they can't keep everyone happy both with how they're getting paid and how they're being used. There's only so many minutes in a game and it's hard to play Hayward, Tatum, and Brown together.

If you look at how Brown has performed over his first three years in the NBA, he's been solid, averaging 11.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 0.8 steals per game. While he still has a lot of room for growth, he has overall backed up the Celtics' decision to draft him third overall in the 2016 NBA draft.

During his freshman year at Cal, I was around Brown a lot thanks to my gig covering Cal basketball for Rivals.com. It was clear from his first game at Cal that he was a supremely gifted athlete and that it was just a matter of time before he would put all the pieces together. While he hasn't put all the pieces together yet, it would be foolish to not think he'll get better. Especially since he's turning 23 tomorrow. He's still very young with a ton of upside.

Given all that, I don't think it's crazy for Brown to get the contract that he did. He keeps getting better and is also a really smart, articulate guy that brings a lot to an organization both on and off the court. The Celtics do have to figure out what to do with Tatum and Hayward as well, but I think if they had to let one of them go, Hayward would be the one. He's the oldest and has already been through a really gruesome injury. The smart move for the Celtics might be to actually move Hayward for more assets and really build around Tatum and Brown. Together, those two could form a really dynamic duo over the next decade. Of course, they could also try to keep all three and see if they can co-exist for the long term. I'm skeptical that they can, but perhaps they'll prove me wrong.

Overall, I do think the Celtics made the right decision in giving Jaylen Brown his money. He's one of the most talented young players in the NBA and provided he continues to grow like he's projected to, they'll get their money's worth. That I'm confident of.

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NBALord.com Atlantic Division Preview

Up next in my division preview series is the Atlantic Division, home to the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, and Philadelphia 76ers. This division projects to be the most competitive in the Eastern Conference with three teams that all have a real shot at reaching the NBA Finals.

Of all the teams in the Eastern Conference, I believe the Boston Celtics are the most talented and on top of that, they are the most experienced. Kyrie Irving has won an NBA championship while Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both got invaluable experience last year, leading the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals with Irving and Gordon Hayward sidelined. This Celtics team is really good and are the odds on favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

The biggest challenge for the Celtics will be finding a way to integrate all the talented pieces that they have without messing up the chemistry they developed last year. Specifically, finding minutes for Hayward, Brown, and Tatum since they all play the same position. The Celtics didn't expect Tatum and Brown to burst on the scene like they did and now that they have, they have a bit of a problem on their hands. It's a good problem to have, but one that still needs some sorting out.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Celtics get out of the gates a little slow, but by the end of the season, Brad Stevens will have things figured out and they'll be right at the top of the Eastern Conference. They have too much depth and talent to not be playing deep into May and possibly June.

Many feel the biggest challenger to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference is the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers have a talented roster of their own consisting of Joel Embiid, J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Markelle Fultz, and Ben Simmons. Simmons draws comparisons to LeBron James while Embiid draws comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon with a better perimeter game. After years of losing games and racking up high draft picks, the 76ers are back and ready to make a serious run for an NBA title.

The biggest concern for the 76ers is health. Simmons, Embiid, and Fultz have all dealt with serious injuries in the past and it's no guarantee that they stay healthy going forward. Brett Brown needs to do all he can to give these guys as much rest as possible. It's a rather unique situation in that they're pretty young but also vulnerable to injury. Usually it's older teams that are more worried about the injury bug.

In regards to their championship chances, I think these guys are a couple years away from being serious title contenders, but the Eastern Conference is up for grabs with LeBron James going to Los Angeles. If they are able to survive the grind of an 82 game season and stay healthy, they will once again make a deep run in the playoffs. They're simply too talented not to with all the pieces they have.

The Toronto Raptors have a new identity after trading DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Pöltl to the San Antonio Spurs for Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. The Raptors have had a lot of success in the regular season, but they have failed to do much in the playoffs. Their front office felt a big change was needed and so they rolled the dice on Leonard, who they only have as a one-year rental.

With Leonard as their top player, I do expect the Raptors to be serious contenders in the Eastern Conference. Leonard has an NBA Finals MVP under his belt and knows what it takes to win a championship. The Raptors needed somebody to show them the way and there's no reason to doubt Leonard's abilities.

Like any contender, staying healthy is the biggest key for this Raptors team. Leonard missed nearly all of last season due to a quadriceps injury and was never able to get into a rhythm. The Raptors need him to stay healthy if they are to have any chance at winning a title.

Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, and Danny Green form a really nice core around Leonard. Even though those guys weren't able to get over the hump, they're still really good. If Leonard is able to stay healthy and be the superstar this team needs him to be, don't be shocked to see the Raptors in the NBA Finals.

The New York Knicks are led by shooting guard Tim Hardaway, Jr., who is averaging 24.4 points per game so far this season and power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is rehabbing from a torn ACL. So long as Porzingis remains out without a firm return date, it's going to be a long season in New York. Even with him, they don't have a ton of talent, but without him, they really don't have much to lean on.

One bright spot for the Knicks early on this year is rookie forward Allonzo Trier, who is averaging 8.6 points per game. Trier went undrafted out of Arizona, so it has been a real surprise to see him producing like he has. If he continues on playing like he is, he not only will have a permanent spot on the team, he'll also be commanding a lot more money next year, similar to Wesley Matthews, Jr. after his breakout rookie season with the Utah Jazz.

For the Knicks, this year is all about player development and figuring out who belongs on their team for the long-term. Enes Kanter will be an interesting player to keep an eye on as he is very talented but also comes with some baggage. If he can get along with head coach David Fizdale and accept whatever role is given to him, he could be a nice piece for this team going forward.

The frustrating thing for Knicks fans is that their team is forever in a state of "development" without actually yielding any fruit. Hopefully for them things will be different in the near future, but as far as this season is concerned, it's going to be another rebuilding type of situation whether they like it or not.

Similar to their crosstown rivals, the Brooklyn Nets are also in a state of rebuilding and figuring out an identity. D'Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Caris LeVert are doing an admirable job of leading this team for being so young. LeVert in particular as he is having a breakout season, averaging 18.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game.

For the Nets, what they need to hope for is that this young trio can mature and grow into something special. As an extension of that, they need to hope they can find the right pieces to put around them to help make that happen. It's going to be a long season in Brooklyn in terms of wins and losses, but hopefully for them they'll start to figure out an identity and get a feel for who belongs on their team for the long-term.

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Saturday Slam: Can the Cleveland Cavaliers win in Boston without Kevin Love?

                                          (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports). 

On Sunday at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN, the Cleveland Cavaliers will try to steal a Game 7 in Boston against the Celtics to reach the NBA Finals. LeBron James is coming off a heroic Game 6 performance in which he scored 46 points to go along with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. He'll look to have a similar type of performance once again in a hostile environment. The big news going into Game 7 is the absence of Kevin Love, who is currently in the NBA's concussion protocol. Given that the Cavaliers lost their first three games in Boston by an average of 17 points, it's really hard to imagine them winning on Sunday without Love, who's been averaging 17.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season.

Earlier in the week, I wrote a piece about how tough the Celtics are to beat in Boston. While they've struggled on the road, they've been lights out at home. The whole team plays much better and really feeds off the energy from their home fans. Even if the Cavaliers were going into this game at full strength, it would still be dicey to pick them to win. But without Love, it just doesn't seem possible given all the numbers.

So, with that all being the case, why even write about the topic? Kevin Love is out and the Celtics are unbeatable at home. That means no chance for the Cavaliers, right?

As much as I want to guarantee that the Celtics will win on Sunday, the reason I cannot make such a guarantee is because the Cavaliers have LeBron James, who is the best player in the league. We've seen James carry his team on his back against all odds and to think he can't do it again would be disrespectful and foolish. While I do believe the Celtics should be favored to win tomorrow because of how tough they've been at home, that doesn't mean I believe the Cavaliers have no shot. So long as they have James out there, they have a shot. He's that good.

                                          (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports) 


Now, that all stated, James can't literally win this game by himself. He's going to need help from both his teammates and the Celtics. With Love out, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver are both going to need to step up and get in a nice rhythm early on. If those guys are both able to heat up from beyond the arc, that will really help take the pressure off of James. In addition to those two guys, the Cavaliers will need to do a good job defending and controlling the glass. Tristan Thompson will need to have a big night on the glass and really limit the Celtics' second chance scoring opportunities.

In regards to the Celtics, they're going to need to help James out by choking, which could happen. They are a young team who hasn't been in this position before. It would be really easy for their young guys to tense up a bit and not play their best basketball. It will be key for the Celtics to come out of the gates strong and shake off their nerves. If they're playing tight basketball early on, that will really help LeBron James and the rest of the Cavaliers build the necessary confidence to steal this game.

My prediction for this game is that the Celtics will win because the odds say that they will. They're unbeaten at home in the playoffs and as such deserve to be favored. That said, if there's anyone who can beat the odds and pull off the upset, it's LeBron James. This is why I'll be tuning in to watch with keen interest.

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Wednesday Windmill: Can the Boston Celtics be stopped at home?

Despite being 1-6 on the road, the Boston Celtics are now 10-0 at home in the playoffs after Wednesday night's 96-83 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. After dropping two straight games in Cleveland, the Celtics bounced back like Drake, dominating the Cavaliers from the opening tip. Jayson Tatum led the way for the Celtics with 24 points and 7 rebounds while Jaylen Brown finished with 17 points of his own.

As frustrating as their road woes have been, the Celtics have made the most of their home court advantages in each series, winning every single game in Boston. As a result, they are now just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals with a Game 7 in Boston in their back pocket. With how these playoffs have gone, it is fair to wonder whether or not the Celtics can be stopped on their home floor.

10 years ago, the Celtics experienced a similar kind of situation, winning their first two series' 4-3 before defeating the Detroit Pistons in six games to win the Eastern Conference crown. We've seen this Jekyll and Hyde behavior from them before, but thanks to having home court advantage, they've been able to scrape by. Teams work all season to put themselves in the position to have home court advantage and the Celtics make the most of it, using up nearly every home game they have to advance.

The key to understanding this phenomenon is recognizing how difficult it is to win a road game in Boston. There's something about the place that makes it nearly impossible to get a win. The parquet floor, the retired jerseys, and all the championship banners give Boston an almost magical environment. It's like playing in a living museum. The fans are passionate and they get behind their team like few fan bases do.

                                         (Chad Finn. The Boston Globe) 
                           
When you combine that environment with an exciting young team, you have the recipe for home dominance.  Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Al Horford all feed off of the energy created by their home fans and play their best basketball as a result. Away from home the Celtics are very vulnerable, but at home they're nearly invincible. If anyone had any doubts about how much of an impact their home environment has, those doubts should be erased after what we saw on Wednesday.

The unfortunate reality for LeBron James and the Cavaliers is that if they want to get back to the NBA Finals, they're going to have to win a game in Boston and with the way things are going, the odds of that happening do not look likely. In each of the three games played in Boston during this series, the Celtics have won by an average of 17 points. That's as dominant as you can get.

As much as I want to believe in LeBron James' abilities to will his team back from the dead and beat the odds, it's really hard to ignore these numbers. The Celtics have been lights out at home and until some team cracks the code, they should be favored in every home game they play in these playoffs. Picking against them is not only disrespectful. It's flat out foolish.

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Saturday Slam: Can either the Boston Celtics or Houston Rockets reach the NBA Finals?

On Sunday at 3:30 PM EST on ABC, the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers will play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals in Boston. On Monday at 9:00 PM EST on TNT, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will play Game 1 of the Western Conference finals in Houston. Despite not having home court advantage, both the Cavaliers and Warriors are expected to reach the NBA Finals and face off once again for the fourth consecutive season.

While Warriors fans and Cavaliers fans would probably prefer another rematch, the rest of the NBA's fans are dying to see a different NBA Finals match up, preferably Rockets vs. Celtics. While the odds are stacked against them, it is possible that the Celtics and Rockets both reach the NBA Finals. It's just a matter of them playing up to their maximum potential and getting a little bit of luck to go their way.

First, let me address the Celtics and what they need to do. While they don't have LeBron James on their side, they do appear to have the deeper team even without Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. Terry Rozier has done a fabulous job of stepping in for Irving as the team's floor general, averaging 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game in the playoffs while Al Horford has also stepped up his game, averaging 17.0 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs. In addition to the stellar play of Rozier and Horford, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have also stepped up their play, both averaging around 18 points per game.

The key for the Celtics more than anything will be to not get psyched out by the Cavaliers and just play their brand of basketball, which is predicated on crisp ball movement and gritty defense. If they come out with a lot of energy in Game 1 and play the way Brad Stevens has been coaching them to play, they could sneak out with a Game 1 victory and build some momentum from there.

While I do think the Cavaliers will win the series, I do think that the Celtics have the ability to make this series a lot more interesting than people expect. Unlike the Raptors, the Celtics seem to believe in their abilities and do a good job executing the game plan outlined by their head coach. It's just a matter of them continuing to do what they do well and not let LeBron James get in their heads. So long as they are able to contain him and do what they do, they could find themselves playing into June.

In regards to the Rockets and their series with the Warriors, they too need to buy into what they've done all season and not let the Warriors get in their heads. When Chris Paul and James Harden are playing up to their maximum potential, the Rockets are scary good. They move the ball really well, knock down threes, and are a handful in the transition. The brand of basketball that they play is both exciting and effective.

If I could label anyone as an x-factor for the Rockets, it would be Clint Capela, who is averaging 14.4 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game in the playoffs. He's really blossomed into one of the best big men in the NBA due to his combination of size, quickness, athleticism, and skill. He's very difficult to stop when he's down on the block and in turn, he does a great job of protecting the rim and controlling the glass. The Warriors will not have an easy time containing him. He more than any other player on this Rockets team could make the difference in this series.

I think the Warriors will likely win this series, but the Rockets should not be underestimated. They have a fantastic backcourt in Chris Paul and James Harden to go along with one of the league's best big men in Clint Capela. On top of that, the Rockets have some really solid role players in Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Trevor Ariza. Similar to the Celtics, the Rockets have the pieces to reach the NBA Finals, it's just a matter of them executing their game plan and not panicking when the Warriors go on a run.

To go back to something I touched on earlier, the fact that both the Celtics and Rockets have home court advantage should not be understated. Home court advantage matters more in the NBA than any other league. As long as the Celtics and Rockets can hold serve at home, they'll be just fine. While they want to win every game at home, Game 1 will be especially crucial for both teams. If the Cavaliers and Warriors both steal Game 1 on the road, it's going to be tough sledding for the Celtics and Rockets. If on the other hand, the Celtics and Rockets win Game 1, they'll establish authority early on and give themselves some much needed confidence to win their respective series.

While it is likely that we once again see another Warriors/Cavaliers finals, it would be foolish to instantly write off the Celtics and Rockets. These teams have home court advantage for a reason and need to  be respected as a result. If the Warriors and Cavaliers want to get back to the finals, they're going to have to earn their way back and take out a very quality opponent. It's going to be fun to see how this all unfolds.

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Wednesday Windmill: Taking a quick look at the Eastern Conference playoff picture

With the NBA regular season wrapping up on April 10th, I thought it would also be a good idea to take a quick look at where things sit in the Eastern Conference playoff picture as we head into the final week of the regular season. Things are a bit more settled in the Eastern Conference, but teams are still battling for position and seeding with the 8th seed still up for grabs.

Who's clinched 

At the moment, seven teams have clinched a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference: Toronto Raptors (55-22), Boston Celtics (53-24), Cleveland Cavaliers (48-30), Philadelphia 76ers (47-30), Indiana Pacers (46-31), Miami Heat (42-36), and Washington Wizards (42-36).

As you can see, it is a bit tiered among the teams who have cliched. The Raptors and Celtics are in a battle for first place while the Cavaliers, 76ers, and Pacers are battling to get home court advantage in the first round. As for the Heat and Wizards, their primary focus is to avoid the 8th seed. If they can get the 6th seed, they'll put themselves in a position to possibly pull off a first round upset. Especially if they're not having to face the Cavaliers, who despite a rocky regular season are still the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference.

The most interesting race is who gets home court advantage between the Cavaliers, 76ers, and Pacers. While the Cavaliers are favored to come out of the East, that could change if they don't get home court advantage in the first round. Even with LeBron James, they'll still be putting themselves behind the eight ball if they have to go on the road in their first series.

As for the race for the top seed, with Kyrie Irving out for the rest of the regular season, it's unlikely that the Celtics catch the Raptors for the top seed. At this point, the main focus for the Celtics is to make sure everyone else on their team stays healthy and doesn't get hurt before the playoffs start. Even without home court advantage, the Celtics should like their chances against the Raptors in a series, assuming Kyrie Irving is healthy.

Who's expected to clinch 

The Milwaukee Bucks sit in the 8th spot with a 42-36 record, the same record as the 7th seeded Wizards. For whatever reason, the Bucks haven't yet mathematically clinched, but all signs point to them doing so. The Bucks are more in the mode of improving their seed and trying to avoid the 8th seed. That said, the Raptors are as vulnerable of a top seed as you'll see in the NBA playoffs. Maybe the Bucks like where they sit and have no issue with going into Toronto to start the playoffs.

Who's mathematically alive 

Despite being 37-40, the Detroit Pistons are still mathematically alive. They obviously need the Bucks to totally collapse and on top of that they need to win out. The Pistons' remaining schedule is as follows: vs. Philadelphia, vs. Dallas, @Memphis, vs. Toronto, and @Chicago. Given that they need to win all of these games and do so without Blake Griffin (right ankle contusion), I think this is as good of a schedule as they could really ask for. I don't see the Pistons making the playoffs, but if they can win all of their remaining games, you never know.

What hurts is that the Bucks' schedule isn't  too bad: vs. Brooklyn, @New York, vs. Orlando, and @Philadelphia. It's really hard to envision Giannis Antetokounmpo letting his team down during this final week. If he has a big game even once, the Bucks will find themselves in the playoffs.

Predictions

In regards to how this all shakes out, I think the Bucks will clinch the 8th seed. The Pistons just have too much ground to cover. I think the Raptors will get the top seed and I think it'll be the Cavaliers and 76ers who have home court advantage in the first round. The Cavaliers do not want to go on the road to start the playoffs and understand that doing so would put them in a really difficult spot.

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NBALord.com Podcast: Gordon Hayward is done for the year; Rockets take out the Warriors

On this week's episode of the NBALord.com Podcast, I address Gordon Hayward's season-ending injury, the Rockets' win over the Warriors, and more. Click here to listen to the podcast.





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Wednesday Windmill: Without Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics need Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to deliver

On opening night at Cleveland, Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' big free agent acquisition of the summer, went down with a dislocated and fractured left tibia. Hayward underwent surgery on Wednesday and could be done for the season. Given the severity of his injury, the Celtics have to expect the worst and plan on playing the entire season without their star small forward. With this being the grim reality, the question that is on the minds of everyone is whether or not the Celtics can survive the season without him.

Gordon Hayward has a message for Celtics Nation. pic.twitter.com/H6RHeGgios

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) October 18, 2017

On the surface, there's no way to paint a pretty picture of this situation. Hayward averaged a career best 21.9 points per game last season and is just starting to enter his prime. Given how badly the Celtics fared against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, it's hard to see them reaching the NBA Finals with Hayward on the sidelines for the rest of the season.

If the Celtics want any chance of making a run for the Eastern Conference crown, they'll need to get big production from Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, two small forwards who they selected third overall in the 2016 and 2017 NBA drafts respectively. Given that Brown is in his second year and Tatum is a rookie, there will be more expected of Brown this season to deliver the goods, especially in the early portion of the season.

The good news for the Celtics is that so far, both guys, especially Brown, are stepping up in Hayward's absence. On Tuesday night against the Cavaliers, Brown scored 25 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and got 2 steals. On Wednesday night against the Bucks, Brown had 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. As for Tatum, he finished with a double-double against the Cavaliers with 14 points and 10 rebounds while finishing with 8 points and 9 rebounds against the Bucks.

                                         (John Tlumacki. The Boston Globe) 

If both Brown and Tatum continue to produce like this, the Celtics could find a way to make things interesting in the Eastern Conference. As #3 overall picks, they definitely have the talent to do so. It's just a matter of them finding a way to consistently play up to their maximum potential four out of five nights.

While Kyrie Irving and Al Horford are going to have to carry the load as the two experienced stars on the team, the Celtics' season really comes down to how well Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum step up. They'll be getting the bulk of the minutes at the small forward spot and will need to make up for Hayward's absence. If they are able to do so, the Celtics' season isn't lost. If not, we might as well pencil in the Cavaliers as Eastern Conference champions assuming LeBron James doesn't go down.

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Wednesday Windmill: The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics complete their trade

I just wanted to provide a quick update on here about the Kyrie Irving/Isaiah Thomas trade. As I'm sure many of you heard, the trade got stalled due to Isaiah Thomas' hip still being injured. In order for trades to process, players have to pass a physical or else the deal can be nullified. In order to push this through, the Boston Celtics agreed to sweeten the deal by attaching their 2020 second round pick via Miami to the originally proposed trade.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN revealed the details earlier today. If you missed my take on the trade and why the Celtics should now be favorites to come out of the East, click here.

Story on ESPN: Boston adds a 2020 second-round pick, finally acquires Kyrie Irving in trade with Cleveland. https://t.co/KD2VGLWxkw

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) August 31, 2017

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Wednesday Windmill: After landing Kyrie Irving, the Boston Celtics are the clear favorites to come out of the East

(Ron Schwane/AP)

On Tuesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers traded Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, and a 2018 first-round draft pick. This move appears to be good for both sides involved. The Celtics add a superstar point guard with championship experience while the Cavaliers free up some cap space and land an elite level point guard of their own in Isaiah Thomas.

While this move does make sense for both sides, the surprising part of this deal is the fact that the Cavaliers were willing to make such a move with their biggest threat in the East. Typically, you want to do all you can to not help your enemies, but in this case, the Cavaliers felt like they couldn't pass up what the Celtics had to offer.

While I do like what the Cavaliers got back in this trade, the Celtics are the clear winners. By getting both Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving this summer, the Celtics have greatly upgraded their roster and positioned themselves to reach the NBA Finals.

What the Celtics have needed is a true go-to option that can lead them to a title. As good as Isaiah Thomas has been, I was never convinced that he was that type of guy. As for Al Horford, he's not even remotely close to being such a guy. While he is a very good big man that borders on all-star level, you are not going to win a title with him as your best player.

While Irving gets criticized for not playing defense and being too much of a one-way player, there's no denying his ability to take over games in crunch time. He's one of the most electric offensive players in the league and has proven himself to be more than capable on the game's biggest stage.

As for Hayward, while not possessing the same resume as Irving, he appears to have the tools to be a really good number two option on this Celtics team. He plays well on both ends of the floor and is capable of doing a lot of different things on offense, whether its shooting, attacking the rim, or creating for others.

The Boston Celtics have to feel really good about where they are right now. They landed the biggest prize in free agency and also the star point guard of the team that took them out in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the Celtics do not find themselves playing into June next season, it will be a major disappointment.

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NBALord.com Podcast: Gordon Hayward to the Celtics and NBA Free Agency

On this week's episode of the NBALord.com Podcast, I share my thoughts on Gordon Hayward going to the Boston Celtics and the wild NBA free agency that we have experienced. Click here to listen to the podcast.




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Saturday Slam: Where do the Utah Jazz go after losing Gordon Hayward?

After losing Gordon Hayward to the Boston Celtics, the Utah Jazz find themselves in a jam. They've lost their best player and with the free agent pool largely dried up, there's not much they can add to help them replace Hayward's production. Such is the result of living in a world with free agency. 

With Hayward gone, this is Rudy Gobert's team now and that's not a bad thing. Last season, the 7'1", 245 pound center averaged 14.0 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game, playing in 81 games in the regular season. Gobert has the tools to be the next dominant center in the NBA and be a game changer in a way that Hayward never was. If the Jazz had to pick between Hayward and Gobert, they'd pick Gobert every time. It's not even close. That isn't to say it wouldn't be nice to have both, but the Jazz can now focus on building the team around Gobert and help him become the next face of the franchise. 

The challenge the Jazz have is that right now, they are up against a very stacked Western Conference. Teams like the Thunder, Rockets, Timberwolves, and Spurs have all gotten better while they have gotten worse. Long term, I don't think the Jazz should panic, but as far as next season is concerned, it will be tough for them to get back to the playoffs and win another series. 

The best the Jazz can do is evaluate who they have and figure out who makes sense to hang onto for the future. Derrick Favors is a guy who they'll likely take a hard look at trading at the deadline given that he'll enter unrestricted free agency next summer. He's been solid for them, but hasn't lived up to the hype, either. Unless he has a monster year, he's likely playing for someone else in 12 months or less. 

Two other guys who should be under scrutiny are Danté Exum and Alec Burks. Exum is yet to live up to the massive hype that he had coming into the NBA and after dealing with injury, it's unclear whether or not Burks can return to the level he was at before. Exum enters restricted free agency next summer and Burks enters unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, so if the Jazz want, they can part with both guys after two seasons. 

Outside of Gobert, the only other guy who Jazz fans should really feel excited about is Rodney Hood, who is emerging into one of the better three-point shooters in the NBA, averaging 12.7 points per game on 37.1% shooting from three-point range last season. With Hayward gone, Hood will really get a chance to get more touches and prove his worth in the backcourt.

                                         (Chris Detrick. The Salt Lake Tribune) 

Gobert and Hood could evolve into a really nice one-two punch for the Jazz, but even if they live up to their potential, I'm not sure they'll be enough to make the Jazz a serious contender. The Jazz need to find another piece and what has to be of concern is it's unclear who that piece will be. At this point, all the Jazz can do is go forward with what they have and make the best moves possible to give Gobert and Hood the support they need. 

Saturday Slam is a weekly piece that focuses on a major story of the week. This blog post also appears on my Utah Jazz blog. Click here to check it out. 

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Wednesday Windmill: What adding Gordon Hayward means for the Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics landed the biggest prize in NBA free agency on Tuesday, getting a commitment from Gordon Hayward, who opted out of his contract with the Utah Jazz. Hayward's deal with the Celtics is 4-years, $128M according to Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports' The Vertical and other reporters.

Last week, I addressed what adding Hayward would mean for the Celtics, so I feel like somewhat of a broken record addressing this topic one week later. However, now that the Celtics have actually landed their man, I can address this topic more in full, knowing the outcome of the situation.

With Hayward now on their roster, the Celtics have just gotten a lot better. When watching them last season, it was clear that they didn't have the pieces to win a championship. The fact that they finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference was very impressive considering that their roster was inferior to the roster of the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was pretty much the Isaiah Thomas show with Avery Bradley and Al Horford sharing some of the load.

The Celtics needed to add another piece and Hayward was as good of a piece as they could have added. He's only 27 years old and just finished his best season in the NBA, averaging 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game en route to his first All-Star season. He instantly becomes the #2 scoring option on the Celtics and gives them an elite wing, a piece that is needed to contend in today's NBA.

As for whether or not the Celtics are contenders, I think the answer is pretty clear that Hayward makes them a legitimate threat to the Cavaliers. I still wouldn't bet against the Cavaliers due to the presence of LeBron James, but I wouldn't at all be shocked to see the two teams go to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics have gone from virtually having no shot at the Cavaliers to having a legitimate shot at taking them out given the right conditions. That is a significant improvement.

Going forward, the biggest thing the Celtics need to do is figure out how else to balance out their roster. Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN are reporting that Hayward might be headed to the Celtics via sign and trade with Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder all discussed as possible trade chips. This is for the purpose of freeing up more cap space to sign Hayward. In addition to a sign and trade for Hayward, the Celtics might need to tinker with their roster some more to put themselves in the best position to succeed.

While the loss of Hayward is sad for the Utah Jazz, his arrival in Boston is very exciting for the Celtics. They've been in need of adding another elite player to their lineup and they have couldn't have asked for a better addition. I do want to say that Celtics head coach Brad Stevens deserves a ton of credit for this one. If he didn't have such a tight relationship with Hayward going back to their days at Butler, I don't think Hayward leaves Utah. Stevens clearly sold Hayward on the Boston experience and all that they could accomplish together.

When you think about it, that's pretty tough for Hayward to turn down. He wishes they would have won a national championship at Butler and by reuniting in Boston, the two of them get another shot at winning a ring. When you look at it that way, it's actually pretty cool things worked out the way that they did.

Wednesday Windmill is a weekly piece that focuses on the Eastern Conference. 

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NBALord.com Podcast: NBA Free Agency and where Gordon Hayward might land

                                          (Credit: Trent Nelson. The Salt Lake Tribune) 

On this week's episode of the NBALord.com Podcast, Brian Kaiserman joins me to discuss NBA free agency and where Gordon Hayward might land. Click here to listen to the podcast.



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Wednesday Windmill: Is Gordon Hayward the missing piece for the Boston Celtics?

There has been lots of chatter about Gordon Hayward leaving the Utah Jazz for the Boston Celtics due to his ability to opt out of his contract and connections to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens. The 6'8", 225 pound small forward is coming off his first all-star season in the NBA and is just starting to enter his prime at 27 years of age. After watching the Eastern Conference Finals, it is clear that the Celtics are in need of a major addition to leap frog the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. While Gordon Hayward is one of the best young talents in the league, is he the missing ingredient to a Boston Celtics championship run?

At the moment, the top player on the Celtics is Isaiah Thomas, who averaged 28.9 points and 5.9 assists per game last season. Thomas led the NBA in fourth quarter points and should have been a much more serious MVP candidate than he was. While he is blossoming into an elite player in the NBA, he can't carry this Celtics team on his shoulders. He needs someone else to help him carry the load and Al Horford so far is not looking like that kind of player.

What makes Hayward such an attractive option for the Celtics is the fact that he could easily slide into their starting lineup without disrupting what they already have. He averaged 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last season, better numbers than everyone else on the Celtics aside from Isaiah Thomas. Hayward would instantly become the #2 scoring option on the Celtics and give them an elite wing, something that every championship contending team needs to have.

The big question that is on everyone's minds is whether or not Hayward will stay in Utah or leave for greener pastures in Boston. A lot of that comes down to whether or not Boston is in fact "greener pastures." While Boston does offer Hayward the chance to be the next major star of a storied franchise, that may not be something that he is looking for. The pressure to deliver in Boston is enormous, especially when you are playing for the Celtics.

                                        (Credit: Trent Nelson. The Salt Lake Tribune) 

As for Utah, there is much less pressure there and it is also a much more family friendly environment. Hayward is married with a young child, something that is sure to factor into his decision. He may feel that Utah is a better place for him to raise his family and that he doesn't want to put them through the pressures that come with playing in Boston.

Plus, it's not like the Utah Jazz are chopped liver. They won a playoff series last season and are one of the up and coming teams in the NBA. Hayward has good reason to feel that Utah is the best place for him from a competitive standpoint as well.

While we are yet to know where Gordon Hayward will be playing next season, the Boston Celtics better hope he suits up for them. They need an elite wing that can put up points and take the pressure off of Isaiah Thomas. By landing him, the Celtics would put themselves in a great position to reach the NBA Finals and dethrone the Cleveland Cavaliers as the champions of the Eastern Conference.

Note: Wednesday Windmill is a weekly post focusing on the Eastern Conference. This article also appears on my Utah Jazz blog. Click here to check it out. 

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