Saturday Slam: Can the Miami Heat go the distance?

 

                                                (Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)  

The Miami Heat are currently up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals with Game 3 coming up later tonight against the Boston Celtics, who will be looking to get a boost from Gordon Hayward's return. At the moment, the Heat have definitely been the biggest surprise of the playoffs, sweeping the Indiana Pacers in the first round, taking out the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, and now possessing a 2-0 lead on the Celtics. Their lone playoff loss to the Bucks was in overtime 115-118 and their average margin of victory in the playoffs is 7.64 points per game. Basically, they're on cruise control. 

At this point, they have to be favored to come out of the East, but the big question is do they have what it takes to beat whoever comes out of the West. It's early yet, but judging by last night's Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, it looks likely that the Los Angeles Lakers will take care of the Denver Nuggets, another team who has had an impressive and surprising post-season. The Lakers would no doubt be the toughest opponent the Heat have faced in the playoffs, but given how easily they've dismantled their opponents thus far, there's no reason to think the Heat aren't up to the task. 

What makes this Heat team dangerous is their depth and unselfishness. Jimmy Butler is the heart and soul of this team, averaging 20.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. He gets after it on both ends of the floor and isn't afraid to have others share the spotlight with him. Goran Dragic is leading the team in scoring with his 22.2 points per game while Bam Adebayo is taking care of business inside with 16.8 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. In addition to those three guys, the Heat are also getting solid production from Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro. An added bonus is the presence of veteran small forward Andre Iguodala, who knows a thing or two about guarding LeBron James. 

While they don't have that one singular superstar that leads them, the Heat have really good pieces that come together to form a very balanced and dangerous team. They remind me of the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who defeated a more star laden Lakers team in the NBA Finals. Even though they have more business to take care of, I see no reason to doubt the Heat's ability to win it all. They are clicking at the right time and don't seem afraid of taking on teams that have more talent. 

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Wednesday Windmill: The Miami Heat are off to a surprising start

If you get a chance to glance at the Eastern Conference standings, you'll notice that the Miami Heat are 9-3, having won three straight games over the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Pelicans. In what many expected to be a rebuilding season, the Heat are instead in the mix for the top seed in the East, just 1.5 games back of the top seeded Celtics. In case you are wondering if the Heat have benefited from a soft schedule, I should quickly add that they have notched wins against the Bucks and Rockets, who are both seeded #2 in their respective conferences. So the Heat have been beating some quality teams en route to their 9-3 start. 

The biggest surprise on this Heat team has been Kendrick Nunn, a point guard out of Oakland University (Michigan) who went undrafted in 2018 and is in his first year in the league. Nunn has been on fire this year, averaging 17.8 points and 1.6 steals per game. Every now and then someone comes out of nowhere and plays really well and this year, that guy is Nunn. 

Nunn hasn't been the only bright spot on this Heat team. Rookie shooting guard Tyler Herro is balling out as well, averaging 13.3 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He too is a rookie of the year candidate. In addition to Nunn and Herro, Jimmy Butler (18.4 points), Goran Dragic (16.1 points), Justise Winslow (13.8 points), and Bam Adebayo (13.9 points and 10.6 rebounds) are scoring in double figures as well. 

                                         (Kendrick Nunn. Credit: Lynne Sladky/AP Photo) 

With six players scoring in double figures on average, the Heat have a lot of balance and different looks that they can give teams. This versatility is a major reason for why they are off to such a strong start. No one player is responsible. 

What I'll be curious to see is if the Heat can continue on the pace they're on or if they'll fade as the season goes on. My honest guess is they'll fade a bit and retreat back to the 5-8 range in the East. The reason why is they're young and I expect Nunn and Herro to hit a rookie wall at some point. That said, the East is wide open this year and there is certainly room for the Heat to snag a top four seed come playoff time. If the Heat continue on the pace they're on and avoid hitting any sort of wall, they could be in for really good year. 

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NBALord.com Southeast Division Preview

The last division preview on NBALord.com looks at the Southeast Division, home to the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, and Washington Wizards. Enjoy!

The Atlanta Hawks are in rebuilding mode, but they have a pretty exciting piece to build around for the future in rookie point guard Trae Young, who is averaging 18.4 points and 7.8 assists per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 80.7% shooting from the foul line. Kent Bazemore (14.1 points) and Taurean Prince (14.6 points) are the other two Hawks players scoring in double figures on this team, taking some of the pressure off of Young.

Giving how young and inexperienced this Hawks team is, they're not going to win a lot of games, but they will be exciting to watch thanks to the presence of Trae Young. They have a piece they can build around for the future, but they don't have enough around him at the moment. This is a team that should be looking to make some moves at the trade deadline so as to acquire more assets for the future.

Kemba Walker is the face of this Charlotte Hornets team, averaging 28.3 points and 6.2 assists per game. He's established himself as one of the best players in the NBA and the Hornets as a result are playing .500 level basketball. Around Walker, the Hornets have some solid players in Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Malik Monk, and Tony Parker, who I'll admit is still weird watching in a non-Spurs uniform.

As presently constituted, this Hornets team has the pieces to make the playoffs and possibly win a game or two once they get there. If they want to go beyond that and actually compete to win a series, they're going to need to get a legitimate number two option to go along with Kemba Walker. The pieces they have around him are nice, but not enough to make them a serious threat. They need someone else who can average around 16-17 points per game.

How the Hornets go about doing that remains to be seen, but they might be wise to unload some players in exchange for some draft picks that could blossom into the type of number two option that they need. There's also the possibility of maybe making a trade for a younger player with more upside. The bottom line with this Hornets team is they're nice and heading in the right direction. It's a just a matter of taking that next step and figuring out how to put the right pieces around Kemba Walker.

The Miami Heat have themselves a couple of really nice players in Josh Richardson (20.8 points) and Hassan Whiteside (14.0 points and 15.5 rebounds), who both look like keepers for the future. In addition to those guys, they also have Goran Dragic (16.1 points), Rodney McGruder (13.6 points), and Dwyane Wade (14.3 points), who help give this team some balance.

Given that this is Dwyane Wade's final season in the NBA, the Heat would like to make the playoffs and be competitive in his final year. However, it's probably good for their long-term future that he's moving on after this year so as to focus on the next chapter of their franchise.

The way I read this Heat team is that if everyone stays healthy, they have the pieces to sneak into the playoffs and maybe win a game or two, but that's it. They have the potential to be really good down the road, but they're still young and in need of more seasoning. The main thing to look for this year is how D-Wade's final season goes and whether or not he has any playoff magic left in him. If he could make them competitive in a first round series, that would be a lot of fun.

The Orlando Magic are another team with a lot of nice young talent in Aaron Gordon (16.3 points and 8.1 rebounds), Evan Fournier (16.5 points), and Nikola Vucevic (17.8 points and 10.7 rebounds). It's just a matter of these guys growing together and staying patient.

I truly believe that if this core can stay together for the long-term, they have the chance to be a force in the Eastern Conference. They're not so much in need of another piece as the are in need of going through the maturation process that all teams have to go through.

One name to keep an eye on this year is second year wing Jonathan Isaac out of Florida State. He hasn't been playing as well as the Magic would have hoped and it's unclear whether or not he'll become the elite scorer that they've been hoping he'd be. If he could have a breakout sophomore year and really turn the corner, that would be huge for this team.

At the moment, I see the Magic as a team that will be in the mix for the eight seed in the playoffs, but nothing beyond that. They're too young to make serious noise in the playoffs, but if they can get there, that'll be progress for them.

Led by John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards on paper should be the best team in this whole division. Both of those guys are scoring over 20 points per game while Otto Porter, Jr. and Kelly Oubre, Jr. are both evolving into solid players in their own right. On top of that, they added Dwight Howard into the fold, who while getting old is still a pretty productive big man. For whatever reason, this Wizards team is failing to live up to the hype, starting the season 3-9.

For them, they need to not panic and see if they can calmly right the ship. The season is still young and with a division filled with young teams, they should have plenty of opportunities to catch up. If the Wizards do not make the playoffs this year, that will be a major disappointment considering the level of talent that they have. When you have guys as good as John Wall and Bradley Beal on your team, you should be an automatic playoff team. Especially in the Eastern Conference.

How things go for the Wizards over the next six weeks will be really interesting to follow. My money is on them figuring things out and getting back in the playoff race. I really like Wall and Beal and I also really like the pieces they have around them. If they cannot get it together this season, there will be a lot of questions for their front office to answer in the offseason.

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NBALord.com Podcast: NBA Free Agency and where Gordon Hayward might land

                                          (Credit: Trent Nelson. The Salt Lake Tribune) 

On this week's episode of the NBALord.com Podcast, Brian Kaiserman joins me to discuss NBA free agency and where Gordon Hayward might land. Click here to listen to the podcast.



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Eastern Conference Playoffs Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat

     Tonight on TNT, the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat begin their second round series in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Raptors come into this series having survived a seven-game scare against the Indiana Pacers while the Heat come into this series having played a seven-game series of their own against the Charlotte Hornets.
     For the Raptors, it would have been disastrous to fall to the Pacers. Lord knows what the aftermath would have been. The media in Toronto would have rightfully questioned the mental fortitude of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry should they have gone down to the Pacers. As for the Heat, a loss to the Hornets wouldn't have been a big deal since Chris Bosh is out. Most people would have chalked up an exit to the Hornets as a result of his absence and the Hornets being a team on the rise.
     If the Raptors want to win this series against the Heat, the main thing they need to do is hold serve at home. If the Raptors go down in Game 1 or Game 2, the Heat will have a tremendous amount of confidence in their ability to win the series since the Raptors will appear vulnerable. Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas have to come out strong and confident as a trio. If they do, the Heat will have their work cut out for them. If they falter and don't play up to their maximum potential, the Heat will be in a prime position to pounce.
     If the Heat want to win this series against the Raptors, they'll have to do whatever they can to get a game in Toronto and get in the Raptors' head. The Raptors are mentally fragile at the moment and the Heat know it. If the Heat can get a game in Toronto, they'll get in the Raptors' head big time and make them question themselves.
     In addition, the Heat should really rely on their veteran playoff experience to win this series. Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem both have three championship rings and are very battle tested. Their veteran leadership made the difference in the series against the Hornets and I look for it to make a similar impact against the Raptors. Wade and Haslem know what it takes to win a seven-game playoff series while the Raptors are still figuring out how to do it.
     With that all being said, I still have to pick the Raptors to win this series in seven games. It'll be a close series that will go back and forth, but at the end of the day, the Raptors will get this done. The Raptors should have some confidence from their series against the Pacers that will serve them well against the Heat. Even though the Raptors showed signs of mental frailty against the Pacers, they only bended as opposed to breaking.
     Going through a tough series and surviving makes young teams like the Raptors stronger. I expect DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Jonas Valanciunas to step up and deliver the goods for the lone Canadian city in the NBA. With a tough series under their belt, they now know they can win a playoff series. With that hurdle now cleared, I expect them to play with a lot more confidence and do what they've done all season, which is be the second best team in the Eastern Conference. Don't get me wrong, the Heat will challenge the Raptors and push them all the way. But in a Game 7 in the city of Toronto, I have to roll with the Raptors.

Eastern Conference Playoffs: Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets

     

      

                                       (3) Miami Heat (48-34) vs. (6) Charlotte Hornets (48-34) 

     The post-LeBron James era is going pretty well for the Miami Heat. They have the third seed in the Eastern Conference and are in good position to reach the Eastern Conference Finals with Dwyane Wade still leading the way to go along with a solid supporting cast that includes Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson, and Hassan Whiteside. As for the Charlotte Hornets, they are starting to get their own crew together composed of Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, Nicolas Batum, and Jeremy Lin. 

     The biggest hurdle the Miami Heat have to overcome in this series is the absence of Chris Bosh, who along with Dwayne Wade has been averaging 19 points per game. Bosh has been dealing with blood clots in his leg and is without a timetable to return. With Bosh likely out for the series, the Heat will need Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson, and Hassan Whiteside to step up. Whiteside will especially need to come up big since he plays down on the block. With Bosh out, it will really be up to Hassan Whiteside to provide a quality post presence for his team in this series due to his rebounding and shot blocking. 

     The biggest hurdle the Charlotte Hornets have to overcome in this series is experience. They didn't make the playoffs last season and as group have very little playoff experience. Even though they have the same record as this Heat team and are healthier, they still have to go up against the likes of Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, and Luol Deng, guys who have a lot of playoff experience.  

      In order for the Hornets to overcome this hurdle, they'll need to get big production from Kemba Walker, who really is the lone star on their team. Walker is averaging 20.9 points per game on 37.1% shooting from 3-point range and 84.7% shooting from the foul line. He has the potential to take over this series and have his playoff coming out party. If he is able to average 24+ points per game and get the help he needs from Al Jefferson, Nicolas Batum, and Jeremy Lin, this Hornets team has what it takes to win this series. 

     When looking at how this series plays out, I'm leaning very slightly towards the Miami Heat winning just because they have more weapons and more experience. I would not be surprised if the Charlotte Hornets won this series, but given that the Heat have Dwyane Wade and a beast like Hassan Whiteside down low in addition to the other guys I mentioned, I'm going to say that the Heat win this series in six games. It'll be close, but the Heat will prevail. 

Note: Game 1 of this series is Sunday at 5:30 PM EST on TNT 

Saturday Slam: Is Milwaukee a possible destination for Dwyane Wade?

     Things between Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat aren't going so good in terms of working out a new contract. Wade wants more money over the course of three years and the Heat at the moment are not willing to fork over the booty. Such is the case with all contract negotiations, but sometimes a deal is never reached and the two sides decide to part ways.

     I am of the opinion that Dwyane Wade will likely work out something with the Heat, but in the event that he decides to go elsewhere to finish his career, I think the Milwaukee Bucks is the most likely team he ends up with. This might come off as a surprise to you since Wade is from Chicago and there has been tons of talk about Dwyane Wade playing for his hometown team. But the fact of the matter is that Chicago isn't the only NBA city outside of Miami that Dwayne Wade has a personal connection to. There is another city, namely Milwaukee, which is where Wade played three years of college basketball at Marquette University.*

     Anybody who has gone to college knows that their Alma mater has a special place in their heart. For me, my Alma mater UC Berkeley has a special place in my heart. I do a weekly blog post on here called "Bear Territory Tuesday" which is entirely dedicated to Cal basketball and it is my favorite thing to write each week.

     I can't speak for Dwayne Wade, but I would guess that he has fond memories of his time at Marquette University and that a part of him wishes he could once again play basketball in the city of Milwaukee. If he ever wanted to relive his college days and once again become a part of the Milwaukee community, joining the Bucks would be a great thing for him to do.

     In addition to having a personal tie to the city, the Milwaukee Bucks actually have some attractive pieces to put around Dwyane Wade in Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kris Middleton, who will be a restricted free agent this summer. Even if Middleton leaves in free agency, Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are enough of an attractive package to entice Dwayne Wade to come back to Milwaukee.

     The Bucks were able to make the playoffs and give the Bulls a good scare with Jabari Parker out for the season. Assuming Parker makes a full recovery, the addition of Dwayne Wade would make the Bucks a scary good team. I wouldn't say the Bucks would be favored over the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference, but they would be in the discussion to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, a place where the Milwaukee Bucks rarely go.

    Lastly, I don't know if Dwyane Wade would feel comfortable going to the Bulls on the grounds that the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls have had some bad blood over the years. Joining the Bulls would really hurt Miami Heat fans and the organization in a way that going to the Bucks wouldn't. His decision to leave alone would hurt, but seeing him play in the same city where he first became a star would make some Miami Heat fans smile, and besides, what is there to really hate about the Milwaukee Bucks? Milwaukee hasn't done anything of importance in the NBA since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar departed for Los Angeles in the 1970s. Seeing Dwyane Wade put the Milwaukee Bucks back on the map would feel almost like an act of charity on his part as opposed to an act of spite.

     In conclusion, I really believe Milwaukee is a possible destination for Dwayne Wade to go to in the event that he decides it's time to move on from Miami. He has a personal tie to the city, the team is promising, and it wouldn't really offend the Heat organization. While on the surface it seems like an odd choice, it's really quite easy to connect the dots. It'll certainly be interesting to see what Wade ends up doing.

*Wade was academically ineligible to play his freshman season at Marquette, so he only played during his sophomore and junior seasons.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news 

Wednesday Windmill: Do the Miami Heat have a franchise player in Hassan Whiteside?

                                                (Credit: espn.go.com)

     Hassan Whiteside has burst onto the NBA scene like an extra in a motion picture suddenly becoming the star of the film. Whiteside's path to NBA glory has been an usual one with stops in Sacramento, Reno, Sioux Falls, Rio Grande Valley, Lebanon, China, and Iowa. What probably allowed him to keep finding work was his freakish size of 7'0 and 265 lbs. But for whatever reason, Whiteside wasn't able to blossom until this season, four and a half years after he was drafted in 2010.

     Now that he has blossomed into a multi-faceted big man who can score, block shots, and rebound at all-star level rates it is beyond puzzling that so many NBA teams passed on him and that he was actually playing overseas for a time. Still, he eventually found his groove and now is one of the most prized possessions in the NBA.

     The Miami Heat must feel like they've stumbled on a gold mine in Whiteside, potentially having their franchise center for the next decade. In his last five games, he has had games of 16 points and 16 rebounds, 16 points and 24 rebounds, 20 points and 9 rebounds, 11 points and 10 rebounds, and 24 points and 20 rebounds. In these past five games, he has also averaged more than 2 blocks per game, truly making him a one-man wrecking crew.

     What allows Whiteside to be so dominant is that he moves extraordinarily well for a person of his size. He is able to get back on defense really quickly and move laterally to block shots in the paint. In addition to his really good footwork, he has really good hands which allows him to score with relative ease in the paint. A seven-footer with his mobility, footwork, and hands is so hard to come by that if he were exhibiting this type of play coming out of college, he would be a number one overall pick in the upcoming draft.

     Given that he is consistently playing so well, the Miami Heat absolutely have a franchise center in this kid and now they have to do him right by paying him whatever he wants in the offseason, even if it means getting rid of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Guys like Hassan Whiteside come around maybe once every decade and the Heat have to take advantage of the fact that he's on their roster at the moment.

      Letting him go would be a huge mistake by the Heat and in the process would create quite a bidding war in free agency from multiple teams across the NBA. What's so amazing about his story is that he has gone from being a guy that nobody wanted to a guy that every team in the NBA is desperate to have their hands on. It almost feels like some form of poetic justice.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news 

2014-15 Southeast Division Preview

I continue my preview of the 2014-15 NBA season by taking a look at the Southeast Division, home to the Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets. I will address each team in order of where I think they will finish with a projected win total in parentheses.

                                                          Washington Wizards (50) 
 
     The Wizards' backcourt of Bradley Beal  (17.1 ppg) and John Wall (19.3 ppg) is one of the best backcourts in the NBA, averaging a combined 36.4 points per game last season. They can only be expected to improve this season and with the addition of Paul Pierce, they could be on the cusp of a trip to the NBA Finals.
    The most important thing for this Wizards team is going to be how well they can stay healthy. Their roster itself is really solid. In addition to a great backcourt, they have a great frontcourt rotation with Marcin Gortat, Nene, and Kris Humphries. With Paul Pierce playing the small forward position, they look very dangerous and capable of winning the Eastern Conference provided they stay healthy. If any of those guys is out for an extended period of time, then there will be trouble.
     This won't be an easy task as Nene, Bradley Beal, and John Wall all have dealt with injuries in the past. It will be really important for their head coach Randy Wittman to manage the minutes of all his players carefully. Especially Wall and Beal since they are the real driving force behind this team.
    What also will be important to keep an eye on is their bench. Glen Rice, Jr., Andre Miller, Otto Porter, Jr., Martell Webster, and Garrett Temple will have to step up and provide quality relief for Pierce, Wall, and Beal.
     I'm confident that Andre Miller will play well and that Martell Webster will continue his solid off the bench production. It's the other guys that are hard to call. Especially Rice and Porter. Neither player  was a factor at all last season, and yet both have the potential to be quality off the bench scorers. If both of them can have significantly improved seasons, that will do wonders for the Wizards since their bench honestly is suspect.
     Overall, this Wizards team looks very solid. The starting five is great and they have nice balance between a good backcourt and a good frontcourt. They can beat you inside and out. Ultimately, injuries or the lack thereof will make the difference for this team's season. If they stay healthy, they'll make a strong push to win the East. If they get injured, they'll make the playoffs, but fail to make much of a push.

                                                           
                                                               Miami Heat (47) 

This team may have lost LeBron James, but they still are going to be dangerous. Luol Deng was a very underrated addition to this team since everybody was only thinking about how he isn't LeBron James instead of thinking about how he averaged 16 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1 steal per game last season. While it is true that he is no LeBron James, he is still a very quality small forward who should fit nicely with what the Heat have been doing during their four straight trips to the NBA Finals.
     In addition to Deng, the Heat also still have Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, who is the heart and soul of the franchise. Both of those guys are still capable at producing at a high level. Ironically, like last season, this team's success hinges on the health of Dwyane Wade's knees. If Wade stays healthy, the Heat will still be very dangerous since outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers, they arguably have the scariest trio in the Eastern Conference.
     What will also be crucial to this team's success is how well Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts fit with the team and how productive they are. Especially Granger since he has had injury issues these past couple of seasons. If Granger is able to be anything close to his old self, the Heat could really be cooking with gas in terms of offensive firepower.
     The biggest concern for this team outside of Wade's knees is their lack of size in the middle. Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem aren't bad in the paint, but they still have a weak front line that was largely masked by the amazing play of LeBron James. They are going to have to find ways to win despite getting beat on the glass. I think Deng will fit the style they've been playing, but since he isn't as multi-dimensional as LeBron James, I expect their lack of size to be an even bigger concern this season.
      The Heat are one of the few teams that might give the Cavaliers serious trouble in the playoffs. Health will be huge, but if they can weather that storm, they could find themselves in a position to knock out the Cavaliers and surprise everybody.

                                                    Charlotte Hornets (44)

     The renaissance of Buzz City is a great thing for the city of Charlotte. They finally have a team that they can really embrace and get behind. "Charlotte Bobcats" always felt strange and so it's nice to see the nickname "Hornets" back where it belongs.
     As for the team itself, they look promising. They added Lance Stephenson and Marvin Williams in free agency and also P.J. Hairston and Noah Vonleh in the draft. Those guys should all prove to be very good additions to go along Al Jefferson, Kemba Walker, and Gerald Henderson. In addition, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller should be improved with another year under their belts.
     Of all those additions, Lance Stephenson is undoubtedly the most important. He emerged into an all-star caliber player last season and he could prove to be a terrific fit with Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson who largely had to carry the load last season. It was clear that the Hornets didn't have the firepower to win a series with just Jefferson and Walker as their best players. It's no disrespect to them. They just needed help and Stephenson's ability to attack the basket from the perimeter as well as his defensive and rebounding abilities could be just what the doctor ordered.
     Noah Vonleh should provide quality production inside and P.J. Hairston should be a nice scoring threat off the bench. But with those two guys being rookies, the Hornets can't bank on them being consistently good every night. Lance Stephenson on the other hand played a big role on the Pacers last season and he should be expected to be a major contributor right away.
   Ultimately, I see the Hornets making the playoffs, but not threatening to win the East. The East is wide open, but there is still a pecking order that goes Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, and then Miami. Charlotte isn't good enough to break into that tier, but they still will be exciting and certainly dangerous.

                                                       
                                                            Atlanta Hawks (41)

     The Hawks are coming off a season in which they almost knocked off the top seeded Indiana Pacers  in the playoffs as an 8 seed, taking them to seven games. This team accomplished a lot last season considering that they were without Al Horford for the bulk of the season including the playoffs. We are still yet to see how this team can do with both Paul Millsap and Al Horford healthy, which gives reason for optimism if you are a Hawks fan.
     Before going down last season, Horford was averaging 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, the best numbers of his career. As for Paul Millsap, he too had a career year, averaging 17.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. If the Hawks get that kind of production from both players throughout the whole season, they will be very scary. Especially since they also have a solid point guard in Jeff Teague, who averaged 16.5 points and 6.7 assists per game last season.
     As for the rest of the team, they have some solid pieces. Kyle Korver is able to knock down threes with regularity and stretch the floor, DeMarre Carroll hustles and does all the dirty work, and Pero Antic is a big man who stretches the floor by hitting threes. Plus, they added Kent Bazemore in free agency, a swingman who averaged a career high 13.1 points per game during his stint with the Lakers last season. Those players all know their roles and fit nicely with the Teague, Horford, and Millsap trio.
    This team's success comes down to how healthy Teague, Horford, and Millsap stay. If those three can all play 70+ games each while staying healthy for the playoffs, they'll be scary. However, they won't be good enough to win a series in my opinion if everything in the Eastern Conference holds to form. But if they are healthy like I mentioned and a couple teams fall due to injury, the Hawks could be prime for a first round upset. I just won't predict it at this point in time.

                                                   Orlando Magic (34) 
   
     The Orlando Magic drafted Aaron Gordon out of Arizona with the #4 overall pick in the draft. I am really high on him due to his athleticism, energy, and defensive abilities. I think he'll have a really good rookie season even if he has a hard time scoring because of all the other things he brings to the table.
     In addition to drafting Gordon, the Magic also added Channing Frye and Ben Gordon in free agency. Both guys can score the ball, especially from downtown, and that is something that this team lacked last season. This team already had a slasher from the backcourt with Victor Oladipo and a quality paint presence with Nikola Vucevic inside. The three-ball they lacked and by now having it, they should be much improved.
    One of the more interesting things to look for in this young Magic team is how point guard Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo play together in the backcourt. Payton came into the draft as one of the best point guard prospects. If he can hold his own at point, the Magic may have themselves a really good backcourt for the future.
    This team can compete for a playoff spot, but right now, I see them missing the playoffs. However, not by much. 34 wins is probably 4-5 wins shy of a playoff spot, which means that if they get some luck they could snag the 8 seed in the East. Most previews of this team's season aren't going to be as optimistic as mine is. I actually like the additions they made in free agency and the draft. It's just going to be tough for it to all come together in one season.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

What Should We Take Away From The NBA Finals?

                                               (credit: miamiherald.com) 

            I’m sure if you are reading this, you are fully aware that the San Antonio Spurs won their 5^th NBA Championship on Sunday night after dominating the Miami Heat in 5 games. As J.A. Adande pointed out on twitter, the Spurs’ 528-458 scoring edge over the Heat was the largest point differential in the history of the NBA Finals. What was expected to be a close 7 game series ended up being a 5 game beat-down, which has left many of us who analyze the NBA scratching our heads.  

We knew the Spurs were a really good team and that with home court advantage the series was theirs to lose, but none of us foresaw the shellacking that they delivered the Miami Heat. The key question going into the series was “Can a better team defeat a team with the world’s best player?” and the answer we got was a resounding “Yes”. After watching this series it is abundantly clear that the San Antonio Spurs simply are heads and shoulders above the Miami Heat and playing at an entirely different level from anybody else in the Eastern Conference. Remember how the Heat thumped the Pacers and looked like they were on another level? Well the Spurs looked even more dominant against the Heat than the Heat did against the Pacers. This means that the Spurs and the Pacers don’t even belong on the same floor together and the Pacers had the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference!

There truly are so many different things to take away from the NBA Finals that I could devote multiple articles to the topic. What I will do instead for the sake of time and efficiency is touch on multiple things instead of doing an in-depth analysis of just one thing. 

The first thing to take away from this NBA Finals is that the San Antonio Spurs are truly a team for the ages. I don’t mean just this team, but more specifically the Spurs during the Tim Duncan & Gregg Popovich era. Over these last 17 years with both Duncan and Popovich in the organization, the Spurs have won 5 NBA championships and been to 6 NBA Finals, with the only loss coming to the Heat last year. They have been the ultimate model for consistency, teamwork, and class over the course of this time. To see Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich get a 5^th NBA title as their careers come to a close truly is fitting.

The second thing to take away from this NBA Finals is that the future remains bright in San Antonio thanks to the emergence of NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Over the last 3 games of the NBA Finals, Leonard averaged 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. A new star was born before our eyes, and the Spurs organization has to like the fact that at just 22 years of age, Kawhi Leonard is already blossoming into a player who can be the face of the franchise once Tim Duncan is gone. 

As for the Miami Heat side of things, three questions must be asked: Where do the Heat go from here? Was “The Big Three” A Success? Will LeBron James stay in Miami? I will try and answer each question briefly, though keep in mind that there is no right answer to each question.

                                    (credit: sportsglory.com) 

              

As for where the Heat go from here, it is really tough to know. 2 championships in 4 years is really good and 4 straight trips to the NBA Finals is an incredible achievement. With LeBron James as their franchise player, the Heat have to like their chances of continuing to contend for titles provided they keep this core group together and that they stay healthy. Nobody in the Eastern Conference gives the Heat any real scare at the moment, and so provided they all opt in to their contracts for next season, the Heat should like their chances to get back to the NBA Finals. However, there is reason for them to worry. First of all, Dwayne Wade’s health is a huge concern. If he doesn’t feel like he can stay healthy and that he is ready to hang it up, then the Heat are looking at a rebuilding process ahead, which means that they may not hang on to LeBron James. In addition, Shane Battier is retiring, Ray Allen may be gone, and other members of this team aren’t likely to be back. Michael Beasley and especially Greg Oden were failed experiments and so the Heat really doesn’t have any more ways to get better this offseason unless they somehow land Carmelo Anthony or Kevin Love, which right now appears to be pie in the sky.

The Heat need to find a way to improve their team even if they keep this core group together and it’s not entirely clear how they do that. I see these three guys sticking together for one more season, but unless they make some good moves this offseason to get better complimentary pieces, their chances of winning a 3^rd title in 5 years looks slim. 

 Was “The Big Three A Success”? This question is a really difficult question to answer and obviously a question that must be asked. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh won 2 titles together in a span of 4 years together and each year they didn’t win a title, they lost in the NBA Finals. It’s hard to say that they weren’t a success considering how rare a feat it is to do what they did. That being said, the expectations that they put on themselves were ridiculously high and each season was approached like with a “championship or bust” type of mentality. For them to only have a 50% success rate at accomplishing their goal, especially when looking at how they almost didn’t get it done last year, it’s hard to say that they can feel wholly satisfied with how things have gone. The final piece to all this of course is whether or not “The Big Three” is done or not. If they are done, then we can look at them as a failure to accomplish lofty goals that they alone set for themselves. On the other hand, if they plan to be together for a few more years, then we have to say that they are still a work in progress, which makes them sound rather scary given the success they’ve already had.

            This leads us to the third question “ Will LeBron James stay in Miami?” I think this ultimately comes down to whether or not Dwyane Wade is confident that he can be healthy. If he is confident that he can be healthy going forward, then LeBron James stays in Miami. If Wade comes to him and says he doesn’t think he can be healthy going forward and that retirement is something he is considering, then LeBron James has to consider other options. One option is to of course stay in Miami, but expect a rebuilding period or at least a period of finding new free agents to sign. This option has the benefits of continuing to build his legacy in the same place where he has already won titles and also the benefit of not facing more scrutiny for being a guy who leaves a team once the going gets tough. That being stated, LeBron James is all about winning titles and he doesn’t care what we in the public think, which means if he likes his chances to win elsewhere, he’ll leave Miami. If he does leave Miami, the question on everybody’s mind is “Will it be Cleveland?” I personally doubt he ever dons a Cavaliers jersey again, but truth is stranger than fiction. Perhaps he wishes he had won a title in Cleveland and also he might like the fact that the Cavaliers have some attractive pieces to work with. E.g. Kyrie Irving and whoever they pick at #1 this year. The notion of him going back to Cleveland isn’t insane, but it also has the feel of being just wishful thinking. Why leave a place where you have won for a place where you failed to win? I don’t have a good answer to that question, but perhaps he feels like his legacy will be hurt unless he delivers Cleveland a championship.

            In conclusion, there are a ton of things to take away from this NBA Finals, and I hope I gave you a good list of key things to think about as we look back on this NBA Finals. This series featured two great teams, multiple hall of fame players, and a hall of fame coach. There are so many things I could have touched on that I didn’t and I encourage you think about what some of those things might be. One thing I didn’t touch on was LeBron’s 2-3 record in the NBA Finals, but I didn’t address that because the comparisons to Michael Jordan are asinine. Michael Jordan is the greatest player to ever play and LeBron James’ career isn’t over yet, so perhaps we shelf that debate until LeBron gets enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame so that we can do a final tally of all the things that both men accomplished. I personally think that even at that point, Michael Jordan’s resume for greatest of all time will be much stronger.  But as we look at what this Finals means for the here and now, it means that the Spurs are still a championship organization, the Heat have serious questions to answer, and the future of the NBA remains a mystery. What could possibly be more exciting conclusions to reach as we look forward to next year? 

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

With the NBA Finals tied 1-1, the change in format to 2-2-1-1-1 really helps the Spurs

                                               (credit: csmonitor.com)

Unless you are a die hard Spurs fan or somebody who desperately wants to see LeBron James fail, you knew that the NBA Finals was going to be tied up 1-1 after two games in San Antonio. The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs are too evenly matched for there to be a situation in which one team takes a 2-0 series lead.  Also, by that same train of logic,  I also think it's unlikely we see a team win two games in a row. That is why this switch in format from 2-3-2 to 2-2-1-1-1 is so crucial. It gives the San Antonio Spurs a pivotal Game 5 right on their home court, and that I think gives them a huge edge in this series even with things tied up 1-1 going back to South Beach.

In case you are reading this, not understanding what I just said, the 2-3-2 format gives the team with home court advantage the first two games at home and the last two games at home. If we were still in that format, that would mean Games 1 and 2 of the NBA Finals would be in San Antonio; Games 3, 4, and 5 would be in Miami; and Games 6 and 7 would be back in San Antonio. But with the NBA Finals format returning to 2-2-1-1-1 for the first time since 1984, that means that Games 5 and 7 are in San Antonio and Game 6 is in Miami. Under the previous format, with the series tied at 2-2, Game 5 would be in Miami and that would give the Heat an unfair advantage. The bottom line is that home court advantage is supposed to give the team possessing it more advantage than the team without it, and in a series as tight as this and as evenly matched as this, the 2-3-2 format actually would give the Heat an edge because a pivotal Game 5 would be in their building. Assuming they win that, all they would have to do is get 1 of 2 games in San Antonio and the championship is theirs. But since this format is back to 2-2-1-1-1 assuming the series gets tied up 2-2, a pivotal Game 5 gets to be back in San Antonio where the Spurs thrive. This gives them a huge edge to go up 3-2 and from there have a chance to close out the series in Miami in 6 or come back home for a Game 7 if needed.

The luxury of having both a pivotal Game 5 and a series deciding Game 7 on their home court is huge for the Spurs to have at this point in the series. All they need to do to make things right again is to get the split in Miami to make things tied 2-2. In the previous format, it wouldn't be that simple. They would need to take 2 of 3 games in Miami to really feel comfortable, which would be a tall task.

Ultimately, the format of this series tremendously helps the Spurs and it is the right format for the league to have. The rest of the playoff series' are 2-2-1-1-1 and making things switch to 2-3-2- in the NBA Finals just felt weird. The NHL Stanley Cup Finals does 2-2-1-1-1 and so if they can do it in their finals so can the NBA. I'm glad the league made this switch because it makes things more fair for the team with home court advantage. It may sound silly, but it is really true that this simple change in format could wind up making a huge impact on the outcome of this series. It'll be interesting to see if the Spurs capitalize off of it and get this series back to San Antonio tied 2-2.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

2014 NBA Finals Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

                                            (credit: rsenetwork.net) 

The 2014 NBA Finals starts tonight, which means it is time for my annual NBA Finals preview. In case you haven't been following the NBA playoffs at all, the NBA Finals is between the Eastern Conference champions Miami Heat and the Western Conference champions San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs have home court advantage and for the first time since 1984, the NBA Finals will not be in the 2-3-2 format but instead the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

Probably the most unique part about this series is that it is an NBA Finals rematch from last year. The last time the same two teams faced off in the NBA Finals for the second year in a row was 1998 when the Utah Jazz and Chicago Bulls squared off for the second straight time. Like the 1998 NBA Finals, the Eastern Conference champs won the previous NBA Finals matchup. Also like the 1998 NBA Finals, the Western Conference team is billed as the better overall team but the Eastern Conference team is billed as having the game's best player. I'm not saying LeBron James is in the same league as Michael Jordan, but I am saying that like Jordan in 1998, LeBron James is the league's best player. What this NBA Finals is really about is whether or not a better overall team can take out a team that has the best player in the world. The Jazz couldn't overcome the Bulls, and now we will see if the Spurs can overcome the Heat.

One important difference between the 1998 NBA Finals and the 2014 NBA Finals is that the Spurs have won 4 NBA titles going into this series and the Jazz had won zero, so I do like the Spurs' odds better than I would have liked the odds of the Jazz. Still, it is really hard to pick against a team that has the league's best player. The NBA is a league that ultimately is dominated by superstars at an almost disproportionate rate. But with that being said, to say that the Heat win this series is to say that even though the Spurs have home court advantage, a deeper team, a better coach, and have beaten better teams to get to the NBA Finals, the Heat will still find a way to win the series because LeBron James is a force of nature like unto Michael Jordan. I do not think he is a force of nature like Michael Jordan, which is a big reason why I think that the Heat will fall short of their goal of a three-peat.

But with that being said, I don't mean to "slight" the Miami Heat in the way that LeBron James feels like they have. The Heat are the two-time defending champions who have been to three straight NBA Finals. That means that they have to be doing something right. What makes the Heat so dangerous is that when healthy (and they are healthy right now), the Heat have the NBA's best starting lineup. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA and easily one of the top 10 greatest players of all time (probably top 5), and Dwyane Wade is one of the top 5 shooting guards of all-time. When you have two hall of fame players who are among the very best to do what they do on the same team, you have yourself a team that is very difficult to stop. In addition, the Heat have a very underrated power forward in Chris Bosh who has evolved into a lethal threat on the perimeter and they also have a couple of guys who make great role players in Ray Allen and Shane Battier. Both guys are good to hit clutch shots and both play very unselfishly. To say the least, the Heat have a team that is a quasi all-star team, and that makes them very tough to beat.

But while we talk about how star-laden the Heat are, it isn't like the Spurs are a team that doesn't have stars and hall of famers of their own. On their team they have Tim Duncan, who is indisputably the greatest power forward of all-time, Tony Parker, who is arguably the best point guard in the NBA and one of the greatest point guards ever, and a wily old Manu Ginobili who still has tricks up his sleeves and still likes to remind us why he is a hall of fame player. Point guard play and play in the paint is where the Heat are most vulnerable and that's a problem for them because that is where the Spurs excel the most. Tim Duncan still gets it done inside and Tony Parker carves up defenses like he is carving a Thanksgiving turkey. In addition, the Spurs have fantastic wing players to prevent defenses from collapsing on Tony Parker with Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli, and Kawhi Leonard all capable of knocking down threes with relative ease. What makes the Spurs so tough is that not only do they have hall of fame players to come through in crunch time, but they also have fantastic role players who at times can be equally dangerous. In this discussion, we haven't even brought up Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Matt Bonner, or Corey Joseph who are additional guys that the Heat have to worry about. When you look at the Spurs as a collective whole, they can beat you in multiple ways, with 11 guys who are all capable of doing serious damage when called upon.

The Heat have nothing close to that kind of depth, and they ultimately need LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to play well in order for them to win this series. The Spurs on the other hand do not need one or two particular players to play well. They run a very well-oiled system that allows different players to step up and cover for guys who are having a rough night. Even if Tony Parker is having a bad night or is injured, the Spurs can still find ways to win because what they rely on more than anything is their system and not one or two particular players. The Heat don't have this luxury. They must have LeBron James play well in this series or they are doomed. If he has a bad night, they are done. It is that simple.

Ultimately, the fact that the margin for error is smaller for the Heat than it is for the Spurs is why I am picking the Spurs to win this series in 7 games. They have more weapons, more options, and a coach in Gregg Popovich who knows how to put those weapons to use. The Heat's head coach Erik Spoelstra has less options and he must rely on LeBron James to will the Heat to victory in order for the Heat to win this series. There are adjustments he can do like putting Chris Andersen with Chris Bosh, or moving LeBron James to the power forward position in certain situations, but ultimately there is less within his control. Spoelstra's role as head coach is much more like the boss of a company who makes sure everybody is doing their job, whereas Popovich's job is much more like a musical composer asked to compose a symphony using a variety of instruments. Spoelstra just needs to make sure everybody does their job and Popovich on the other hand tries to find creative ways to bring out the french horn and have it carry the melody (Yes, Boris Diaw is the French Horn of the Spurs).

 The point is, the philosophies of both coaches is very different because of the tools they've been given to work with. Spoelstra has the best two tools to work with in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but Gregg Popovich has more tools to work with who collectively are better than the sum of all the tools that Erik Spoelstra has. Typically teams with the best player win a 7 game series in the NBA, but they can be beaten by teams that are way better than them collectively and are better overall teams. I think the Spurs as an overall team are much better than the Heat, which is why I have them winning this series in 7 games.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord 

The Pacers are in a hole, but they aren't dead as they trail the Heat 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers currently trail the Miami Heat 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals with Game 5 happening later tonight in Indiana (8:30 PM ET on ESPN). Things no doubt look bleak for the Pacers right now. After taking Game 1 at home against the Heat, things have quickly swung in favor of the Heat, resulting in 3 straight wins for the defending champs. The key problem for the Pacers is that Roy Hibbert has slowed down a little bit after appearing to have found his groove against the Wizards, and Lance Stephenson has virtually disappeared in the last two games of the series, averaging just 9.5 points per game in Games 3 and 4. Stephenson's struggles have been due to foul trouble and a lack of aggression. If the Pacers can get Hibbert and Stephenson to wake up the rest of this series, the Pacers do have a chance, albeit a slim chance. How is that possible? The answer lies in the simple fact that the Pacers have Game 5 and Game 7* (If Necessary) scheduled in Indiana and also the fact that it's really hard to hold serve against a team like the Pacers for an entire series.
     I picked the Pacers before the playoffs started to get to the NBA Finals and I picked them to beat the Heat in 7 games once the series began. The reason was simple: Home court advantage. In the NBA, playing at home is more important than in any other sport. The refs give you the calls, the fans get into the heads of the road team, and role players always play better at home. Those three reasons make it really difficult to win on the road in the playoffs, and  I think should the Pacers force a Game 7, they will win this series.
     As for the Heat, they just have to take care of business at home to beat the Pacers and the series is theirs. But can we really expect the Pacers to go down to Miami for a third time and come up empty handed? I don't think we can. The Pacers have been fantastic on the road this post-season, which means one has to think they get at least one game down in Miami. I think odds look fairly good that this series still goes to a Game 7, and if it does, the Pacers will have home court, which is huge for reasons I just mentioned.
     Now, if the Pacers want to force a Game 7 and walk away winning this series, they have to do two things: Get Lance Stephenson going and get easy buckets inside. Paul George may be the engine of this Pacers team, but Lance Stephenson is what fuels the engine. His hustle, passion, and toughness has been the X-factor for the Pacers all post-season. He doesn't necessarily need to score a lot of points for the Pacers to win this series, but they do need him out on the floor scrapping for loose balls and hustling. If he gets into serious foul trouble early in any game going forward, the Pacers are probably cooked. As for getting easy buckets inside, this is pretty self explanatory. The Pacers aren't a great three point shooting team, but they do possess good low-post scorers. Roy Hibbert and David West have to get a lot of touches going forward and beat up the Heat's vulnerable inside. If the Pacers succeed in the paint, then their odds of winning this series go up dramatically .
     I know that statistically speaking the Pacers look doomed when you look at numbers that say "Only 8 out of 217 teams down 3-1 have come back to win a playoff series" but I still think there is great hope for the Pacers. I think they should win Game 5, and I also think their odds of winning Game 6 aren't crazy low. I think that the third time can be the charm in Miami, which brings us to a Game 7 in Indiana, which I think they would win if they get to that point. I may sound overly optimistic, but all I'm saying is that there's a chance the Pacers win this series, and a chance is all the Pacers need.

---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news. My personal twitter handle is @slamdunk406