#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36):
During the regular season, the Toronto Raptors swept the Washington Wizards 3-0. However, two of those games were decided by 4 points or less, so it isn't like the Raptors dominated the Wizards. The fact that two of their three games were close indicates that this could be a tight and competitive series in addition to the fact that most 4/5 playoff series' are close.
Still, the Raptors won all three of their meetings and the fact that the scores were close should not take away from that. The Raptors should have a tremendous amount of confidence going into this series because they swept the Wizards as well as getting home court advantage for the series. At the end of the day, this is the Raptors' series to lose.
What is huge for the Raptors is that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are healthy. Kyle Lowry has missed 12 games due to injury and DeMar DeRozan has missed 22 games. Having their two best players injured for a good chunk of the season took its toll on the Raptors and derailed them from getting a higher seed than what they got. With both guys healthy, the Raptors should have no problem scoring the basketball and getting into a rhythm early on.
In addition to Lowry and DeRozan, the Raptors also have Lou Williams in the backcourt to accompany Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas holding down the fort in the paint. Lou Williams has been especially key to the Raptors' success because he has brought a very nice scoring punch off the bench, scoring 15.5 points and 1.9 threes per game. When he gets going, the Raptors are a very difficult team to stop. The Raptors absolutely have to make him a priority and get him touches when he is in the game.
As for the Wizards, they are a little more banged up, but thankfully Nene should be good to go in Game 1 after being sidelined with an ankle injury. Only reserve shooting guard Garrett Temple (hamstring) should miss the game. Like the Raptors, the Wizards had injuries derail their season, with their star shooting guard Bradley Beal missing 19 games in the regular season. It's huge for the Wizards to have him healthy as well as their star point guard John Wall. Without those two guys able to go, the Wizards would have no shot at winning this series.
The biggest difference between the DeMar DeRozan/Kyle Lowry combo and the Bradley Beal/John Wall combo is that the Raptors' combo has one guy (DeMar DeRozan) who consistently puts the ball in the basket. DeRozan has averaged 20.1 points per game whereas Beal has only averaged 15.3 points per game. Some of that is due to injury on Beal's end, but all the same, DeRozan has been more consistent and that definitely gives the Raptors an edge.
If the Wizards want to win this series, they will really need to make sure John Wall and Bradley Beal are able to find ways to score the basketball since they don't have the luxury of having a guy like Lou Williams coming off the bench. The pressure will really be on those guys to deliver the goods. While there is also pressure on DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, they can breathe a bit since Lou Williams has been a reliable third scoring option off the bench all season.
In addition, the Wizards will also want to take advantage of their size down low. The Wizards have two great post players in Nene and Marcin Gortat who both are better than the Raptors' center Jonas Valanciunas. In addition, the Wizards also have Kris Humphries coming off the bench who is another banger down low. The Wizards will have to control the glass to compensate for being more offensively challenged. If they really dominate on the glass, the Wizards could end up taking this series. What has to worry the Wizards is that the Raptors still took the season series 3-0 despite losing the battle on the glass in each game. The Raptors appear to have what it takes to compensate for any deficiencies they have inside, which means that the Wizards likely have to do more than just rebound well.
As for my prediction, I hinted that I would be picking the Raptors and that is exactly what I will do. I think the Raptors win this series in 6 games because they simply have more ammunition when it comes to scoring the basketball and finding guys to step up in crunch time. This isn't to say that John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Paul Pierce (who I haven't yet mentioned) aren't clutch. They are and they can certainly hit big shots. It's just that I like the guys who the Raptors have better. Plus, it appears as though the Raptors shouldn't be bothered by losing the rebounding battle.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news
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