#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42):
The season series between these two teams was 2-2, but the last two games were back-to-back at the end of the season when the Cavaliers had nothing to play for. In addition, to say that the Celtics played the Cavaliers tough back on November 14 (122-121) is misleading since Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo, and Jared Sullinger were the key players on the Celtics at that time. Green and Rondo have since been traded and Sullinger is still working his way back from injury, only playing a handful of minutes. Head-to-head data does not help when it comes to predicting this series. I have to instead analyze the two teams side by side, looking at their records and current rosters.
When analyzing the series in this way, it's pretty clear that the Cavaliers have an advantage thanks to having the three best players in the series (Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love), home court, and depth. It's always tough to beat a team when your best player isn't as good as three other players on the opposing team. Isaiah Thomas, a talented young point guard who can really score, is the best player on the Celtics, averaging 16.4 points and 1.9 threes per game. He's a very good player, but he isn't at the same level that Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love are at. He's a step below them at the moment and would be much more of a roll player than a go-to option if he were on the Cavaliers.
The fact that the Cavaliers have home court advantage can't be ignored even though it feels like an afterthought given the wide gap in the standings. But whenever you are analyzing a series, you need to address home court advantage and give the team which has it an edge or at least a check mark. The fact that the Cavaliers have home court in this series gives them a tremendous advantage since they already are the better team on paper. The Celtics will have a very hard time winning one game in Cleveland and what's scary for them is that the Cavaliers shouldn't have much trouble winning a game or two in Boston if needed.
As for depth, the Cavaliers have more weapons that they can use. In addition to Love, James, and Irving, the Cavaliers also have J.R. Smith, Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, Shawn Marion, Kendrick Perkins, and Mike Miller who all know their roles. These guys collectively score, rebound, and defend very well.
With that all being said, the only way the Celtics win this series is if their bench really steps up and outshines the Cavaliers' bench. This is something that could happen, given the statistics. The Celtics are the #1 bench-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 41.6 bench points per game whereas the Cavaliers rank dead last in this category, with their bench producing only 24.3 points per game. Now, what is somewhat misleading in all of this is that Isaiah Thomas comes off the bench for the Celtics, which inflates their bench-scoring total. However, the Celtics still have some other quality guys coming off the bench like Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, and Luigi Datome. Those guys can definitely put up some points and provide the Celtics with some relief.
The problem that the Celtics' bench faces is that they have to do more than outperform the Cavaliers' bench. They have to to outperform their bench so well that they defeat LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love in the process. The Cavaliers won Game 1 of this series 113-100 despite the Celtics outscoring them 55-29 in bench points.
If the Celtics' bench is going to make the difference, they'll have to find ways to also slow down LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Do I think the Celtics can slow down the Cavaliers' big three well enough to win this series? I don't think so. The Celtics bench may keep them in some games and help them win a game, but they simply don't have the horses to win this series. I expect the Cavaliers to sweep the Celtics 4-0 when it is all said and done.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news
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