#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27):
The Memphis Grizzlies swept the Portland Trail Blazers 4-0 in the regular season and by having a better overall record, they have earned home court advantage for the series. A huge factor going into this series is that the Trail Blazers are banged up and the Grizzlies are healthy. Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Jeff Green, and Marc Gasol were all able to go in Game 1 and they'll be good to go tonight in Game 2.
As for the Trail Blazers, Chris Kaman (ankle) and Arron Afflalo (shoulder) will not be available for Game 2 after missing Game 1. In addition, the Trail Blazers have lost Wesley Matthews for the season to an Achilles injury. It will be really hard for the Trail Blazers to overcome these injuries. Especially since they weren't even able to overcome the Grizzlies when healthy.
The only way the Trail Blazers win this series is if LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard become the best two players in the series and carry the team on their backs. Lillard has averaged 21.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game while Aldridge has averaged 23.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. They are an excellent duo that has the capability of taking over games against the very best of teams. The problem that they face is they really don't have anybody else who can help them. Nicolas Batum and Robin Lopez aren't bad, but they can't make up for the production that they would have with a healthy Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo.
The Grizzlies on the other hand don't need to rely as heavily on any two players. Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Jeff Green share the scoring the load together, which takes pressure off each of them individually. In addition, they have guys like Courtney Lee, Vince Carter, and Beno Udrih coming in off the bench who can also knock down some shots.
The Grizzlies' biggest strength is their defense and rebounding, which is bad news for the Trail Blazers. It will be really hard for Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge to have huge games against a team that prides itself on defense and crashing the glass since it limits the amount of quality shots they can take. Lillard and Aldridge will have to earn every point they get and as a result will get worn down over the course of the series.
Lastly, the Grizzlies have plenty of guys who can step up in the clutch given their veteran leadership and experience. Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter are all used to playing under the pressure of the playoffs and should be able to perform just as well in clutch moments as Lillard and Aldridge. The Grizzlies have more weapons, more depth, and home court. I got the Grizzlies winning this series in 5 games.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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