#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32):
The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets come into this series as division foes, having played each other four times in the regular season with the Rockets taking the season series 3-1. Both teams have had injuries to deal with, but the Mavericks are healthier at the moment. Both Mavericks guard Devin Harris (toe) and Mavericks forward Chandler Parsons (knee), who were listed as questionable for Game 1, will play tonight. As for the Rockets, they are currently without point guard Patrick Beverley, center Donatas Motiejunas, and small forward K.J. McDaniels. Only Beverley has any hope of playing during this series or later on in the playoffs.
The injury factor does help out the Mavericks a little bit, but the Rockets overall feel good on the injury front with Dwight Howard back in the lineup. James Harden has really carried this team in Howard's absence and so it is definitely huge for Harden to have Dwight Howard back on the floor. Given the overall pieces at play in this series, I still give the advantage to the Rockets despite the current injury report.
Probably the most important battle in this entire series will be the battle between James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki. Harden is the number-two scorer in the NBA and Dirk Nowitzki is still the go-to option on this Mavericks team. This series in many ways will come down to which guy steps up better in the clutch. Harden will score more points in the series because he is asked to carry the scoring load for the Rockets whereas Dirk Nowitzki has more help thanks to Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons. But when we get to the final few minutes of the game, all eyes will be on James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki to step up and hit clutch shots. In essence, their roles will become the same in those final few minutes and whoever performs better will likely be on the winning end of the series.
Another key factor in this series will be Rajon Rondo and how well he plays for the Mavericks. The Mavericks acquired Rondo with the hopes of him being able to get them back to the NBA Finals and it remains to be seen whether or not he can deliver in the way that they expected him to. The jury is still out on the Rajon Rondo experiment, but so far it has been a rocky road for Rondo and the Mavericks.
If Rondo plays well and helps them win this series, odds are good he sticks in Dallas. If the Mavericks lose and Rondo doesn't perform well, odds are good he is out. This is a whole different story in and of itself, but as it pertains to this series, Rajon Rondo is a huge piece in all of this and it's important that you be aware of his role. What Rondo was really asked to do was be a pass first point guard who could help get the ball to Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, and Chandler Parsons for easy shots. Whether or not Rondo makes an impact in this series will largely come down to whether or not those guys score with more ease as a result of his presence.
At the end of the day, I think the Rockets will win this series because James Harden is the best player in the series. While Stephen Curry likely wins MVP, James Harden has made a pretty strong case for himself in the MVP race and it's due to his explosive scoring (27.4 points per game). Assuming Harden scores right around his average and has a couple of games where he goes off for 35+ points, the Rockets should win this series. To put it simply, the Rockets have more ammunition and if they don't win this series it will be because their extra ammunition didn't produce. I think the Rockets will win this series in 6 games.
---Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord for NBA news
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