#1. Indiana Pacers (56-26) vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks (38-44)
As weak as the Pacers played down the stretch, they still hung on to the #1 seed in the East, which I think saved their season. As far as this series is concerned, I don't see the Hawks giving the Pacers much trouble. If the Hawks had Al Horford, this would be a different story, but then if they had Al Horford, they wouldn't be an 8th seed, either. The Pacers are simply much more talented and deep than the Hawks are. Now with that being said, the Hawks went 2-2 against the Pacers this season, so there is some cause for concern. In their 2 wins over the Pacers, Roy Hibbert stunk up the joint big time. He had 2 points in both games combined. If the Hawks want a chance to take out the Pacers, they need Roy Hibbert to be quiet, and the possibility of that happening isn't terribly low judging by how Hibbert has played recently. But even so, the Hawks' best player right now is Paul Millsap and the Pacers' best player is Paul George. Paul George has the edge over Millsap and then in addition to Hibbert, he has Lance Stephenson and David West to help him out as well. Millsap simply doesn't have that same kind of supporting cast to get the Hawks over the hump in this series. I expect the Pacers to win this series in 5 games.
#2. Miami Heat (54-28) vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats (43-39)
Like the previous series, I don't think this series will be terribly close. On paper, the Bobcats could take 2 games off the Heat since Al Jefferson is playing as well as any big man in NBA, averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per contest. In addition, he has a great point guard to play with in Kemba Walker, who is averaging 17.7 points per game and 6.1 assists per game. However, the reason why they won't win this series is because the Heat have LeBron James, who averages 27.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. LeBron James is the best player on the planet, and no team has an answer for him except the Thunder who have Kevin Durant. The Bobcats have quality players, but nobody who can answer LeBron James. If you want me to further break things down, I can tell you that the Heat have Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Michael Beasley, Chris Andersen to throw at the Bobcats and the Bobcats have Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, and Josh McRoberts. The Heat win the supporting cast battle as well as the battle of stars. I do want to give the Bobcats more respect though. They do defend well and the play of Al Jefferson has been fantastic. But they simply don't have the horses to win this series. I've got the Heat winning this series in 5 games.
#3. Toronto Raptors (48-34) vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
This series is a tough one to call. The Raptors have home court advantage and probably have the more talented team since DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are easily the best two players in this series. However, they are inexperienced and the Nets have more depth and playoff experience on their roster since they have Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Andrei Kirilenko. These two teams split their season series, which further illustrates my point that this series is so hard to call.
What's ultimately going to decide this series in my opinion is how DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry play in crunch time as opposes to the veterans of the Nets. All these games will be close and so what's really going decide this series is whether a star is born in DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Lowry. I'm looking at DeRozan to be the guy here since he leads the team in scoring with 22.7 points per game, but don't be shocked if Lowry takes over instead of DeRozan since he was having an all-star level season all year with his 17.9 points and 7.4 assists per game. Both guys are capable, but will either of them step up is the question. The role players for the Raptors are solid. I expect Greivis Vasquez to be solid at the point guard position and Tyler Hansbrough has playoff experience with the Pacers. He should always be good for a hard foul or two and some rebounds. But the bottom line is this comes down to the play of DeRozan and Lowry. Most people don't know a lot about these guys, but I have full faith in their ability to step up in this series and get the job done. I got the Raptors winning this series in 7 games.
#4. Chicago Bulls (48-34) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (44-38)
It may come as a surprise to some, but the Wizards did win the season series against the Bulls 2-1, which is why everybody shouldn't exactly pencil in the Bulls as advancing to face the Pacers. The Wizards have a really good back court with John Wall (19.3 points and 8.8 assists per game) and Bradley Beal (17.1 points per game and 3.3 assists per game) that should give the Bulls a lot to handle. And then in the front court, the Wizards have Nene (14.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game) and Marcin Gortat a.k.a. The Polish Hammer (13.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game). With both a solid front court and terrific back court, the Wizards are much better than people realize and they definitely have the horses to knock off the Bulls.
What the Bulls have over the Wizards is playoff experience, better coaching, and better defense. Their front court of Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson also gives them an edge over the Wizards' front court. But their back court is suspect. D.J. Augustin has been ok for them as has Jimmy Butler and Mike Dunleavy, but it doesn't look too good next to Wall and Beal.
What probably hurts the Bulls the most in this series is that they don't have the best player in the series, and that is always a huge factor in every playoff series. The best player in this series is John Wall hands down. He's the one legitimate all-star in this whole series and if he plays like an all-star, the Wizards will win this series. Ultimately, I think he will, which is why I think the Wizards win this series in 6 games.
--Ben Parker: follow me on twitter @nba_lord
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