(AP Photo/Steve Marcus)
When Zion Williamson was drafted #1 overall by the New Orleans Pelicans in June's draft, he was the heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors. 20 games into his rookie year, Williamson is yet to play in a regular season game as he is recovering from right knee (meniscus) surgery. It's also unclear when he'll make his regular season debut, though the vibe seems to be sometime this month.
Even if he does return by the end of the month, he will have missed over 25% of the regular season, which could ruin his chances of winning Rookie of the Year. Especially when rookies like Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies), Rui Hachimura (Washington Wizards), R.J. Barrett (New York Knicks), and others have been playing really well. At this point, odds of Zion winning Rookie of the Year honors seem slim. Especially since his return date is still up-in-the-air.
That said, it's not impossible, at least in my view, for him to still win the award. For starters, Morant just went down with back spasms and is listed as week-to-week. It is possible that other rookies get hurt and miss some time as well. If Williamson can play at least 50 games this year and really ball out, it's conceivable that he puts himself back in the conversation.
Secondly, NBA awards have had a history of not making sense. The fact that Steve Nash has two MVPs while Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal each have one is a perfect example. We also have had weird debates about whether or not a guy who misses his rookie year is eligible to win the award in his sophomore year. Ben Simmons vs. Donovan Mitchell was the most recent example of that. Even with more deserving candidates, it is possible that members of the media defy all common sense and still give him the award even if he plays only like half the season. They've done it before, so what's stopping them from doing it again?
Lastly, it's possible no other rookie makes a really strong case to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. We could find ourselves in a situation come April where Zion has played the best out of every rookie when looking at the per game stats while no individual rookie has made a strong enough case for them to win the award over everyone else. In other words, it could be a Zion versus the field kind of deal. If we find ourselves in that kind of situation, where the ONLY thing holding Zion back is his lack of games played, he might still sneak out with the award.
While I do think the odds are stacked against Zion and that he probably won't win Rookie of the Year, don't totally count out the possibility. There's still plenty of basketball left and thus opportunities for him to work himself back into the conversation. If he does come back in a reasonable time frame and plays really well, we could be in for some really interesting debates in the second half of the season.
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