In the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, the #2 seeded San Antonio Spurs (61-21) will take on the #7 seeded Memphis Grizzlies (43-39). The regular season series is split at 2-2. Game 1 will tip off on Saturday at 8:00 PM EST on ESPN.
Despite the huge gap in records, this series could be a lot more competitive than expected. While the Spurs are a true championship contender with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge at the helm, it isn't like the Grizzlies are chopped liver. They have plenty of playoff experience and have a very solid trio consisting of Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies are dangerous and certainly have the pieces to give the Spurs a good scare.
If you listen to the podcast that accompanies this preview, you would know that one of the things talked about is how the Grizzlies have been jinxed by injuries over the years. Shortly after recording the podcast, news broke that Tony Allen is out indefinitely due to a muscle strain in his right leg and isn't expected to play in the series. Without Tony Allen, the Grizzlies lose their best perimeter defender and the heart and soul of their defensive identity. His absence is huge and makes things a lot tougher for the Grizzlies to win this series.
The Spurs on the flip side are at full strength, which gives them a huge advantage in this series. Without Tony Allen in their grill, guys like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Tony Parker should have a much easier time scoring from the perimeter and attacking the rim off the dribble. Look for the Spurs to take full advantage of Allen's absence in this series.
While it is true that the absence of Tony Allen puts the Grizzlies behind the eight ball, it isn't like the Grizzlies can't win this series. They can. We've seen them win playoff games on the road before and thrive in the underdog role. If the Grizzlies want to win this series, they'll need to get stellar production from the Conley, Randolph, Gasol trio and really muck up the game with their grit and grind style. If they can slow the pace down and limit the amount of possessions on both sides, they'll give themselves a shot at winning this series.
As far as the Spurs are concerned, what they need to do is take advantage of the fact that they have the best player in this series in Kawhi Leonard. Leonard is averaging 25.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He's perhaps the best two-way player in the NBA and is a legitimate MVP candidate. If Leonard has a big series, the Grizzlies are toast. It's that simple. The Grizzlies have to do all they can to slow him down and force the Spurs to rely more on their other guys.
In addition to Leonard, the Spurs also have LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, and other weapons. The Spurs are the much deeper team, so it isn't like slowing Leonard guarantees a win for the Grizzlies. The Spurs should be able to overwhelm the Grizzlies with their plethora of options to the point that if Leonard has an off night, they'll still win.
When it comes to making a prediction for this series, I said in the podcast that the Spurs will win the series in six games and even with Tony Allen out, I'll stand by that prediction. The Spurs do have more weapons, but the Grizzlies' trio of Conley, Randolph, and Gasol should be able to extend this series to a Game 6. The Spurs will come out on top because they have more weapons, but the Grizzlies won't make it easy.
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