In the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, the #4 seeded Washington Wizards (49-33) will take on the #5 seeded Atlanta Hawks (43-39). The Wizards won the regular season series 3-1. Game 1 tips off on Sunday at 1:00 PM EST on TNT.
The Washington Wizards no doubt wish that they had a higher seed than what they got. The Eastern Conference has an upper tier consisting of the Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, and Wizards with the Wizards bringing up the rear as the #4 seed. The Wizards finished the regular season 4 games back of the top seeded Celtics and 2 games back of both the Cavaliers and Raptors. Had they not gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, they may be looking at having the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs instead of the #4 seed.
As disappointed as the Wizards should feel for not getting a better seed, they should also feel encouraged by the fact that they are hanging with the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The emergence of Otto Porter, Jr. and the addition of Bojan Bogdanovic has given John Wall and Bradley Beal a lot more help than they've had in years past. As a result, the Wizards are closing the gap with the top teams in the conference.
The biggest key for the Wizards in this series is to rely on all the weapons and balance that they have. John Wall (23.1 points and 10.7 assists per game) is perhaps the best point guard in the NBA right now and right by his side in the backcourt is Bradley Beal, who is also averaging 23.1 points per game. The Wizards' backcourt is scary good and then when you combine that with the other guys I just mentioned, you have a team that has the capability of doing a lot of damage in the playoffs. The Wizards can beat you on the perimeter, they can beat you down low, they do a good job on the boards, etc. Their balance is really impressive.
As for the Hawks, to a large extent it's a miracle they've done as well as they have. When they traded Kyle Korver before the trade deadline, there was also chatter that they might trade Paul Millsap or even Dwight Howard. The Hawks appeared to be a franchise that was tanking and entering in rebuilding mode. Instead, they finished as the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference and have positioned themselves to win a first round playoff series.
If the Hawks want to pull off the upset, they need to have a big series from Paul Millsap and rely on the balance that they also have. Millsap is averaging 18.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game while Dennis Schröder is averaging 17.9 points and 6.3 assists per game. In addition to those two guys, the Hawks also have Tim Hardaway, Jr., Kent Bazemore, and Dwight Howard scoring in double figures. The Hawks have a lot of guys that they can go to as well and they'll need every one of them to step up.
Probably the guy who the Hawks could use the biggest boost from is Dwight Howard, who is averaging 13.5 points and 12.7 rebounds per game. Howard is a guy who has a lot of playoff experience and has even played in the NBA Finals. He knows what it takes to go deep in the playoffs and came to Atlanta with the hopes of helping them make a playoff run of their own. If he is able to have a big series and produce above his season averages, the Hawks will really give themselves a great shot at winning this series. Especially if Paul Millsap and Dennis Schröder play up to the levels that they have been playing at.
This is a series that could go either way, but I have the Wizards coming out on top in six games. John Wall is the best player in the series and should be able to slow down Dennis Schröder in the backcourt. Wall is not only a maestro on offense, he is also a fantastic defender, averaging 2.1 steals per game. I see Wall making life hard on Schröder and really owning that matchup.
Bradley Beal might even be the second best player in the series ahead of Paul Millsap, which is just another reason to pick the Wizards. The bottom line is the Wizards are the better team and as a result they should come out on top. The Hawks definitely have the pieces to win this series, especially if Dwight Howard comes up big, but I really don't see the Hawks having an answer for John Wall. Dennis Schröder is a very nice point guard, but he will not win his matchup with Wall. Wall's ability to dominate that matchup will have a huge impact on this series and make things very tough for the Hawks.
My official prediction is Wizards in six games. The Hawks will stretch them a bit, but will not be able to pull off the upset. Unlike the Hawks, the Wizards have a real shot at coming out of the Eastern Conference and making it to the NBA Finals. The Wizards are at a different level and it will show in this series.
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